clm Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 2 hours ago, Iceresistance said: Are you THAT serious JetBlue!? They apparently flew through the eye of Fiona while she was a category 2, and the pilots had the absolute Nerves of Steel to do so! I can't find the Tweet that has it, but it has been confirmed by either webberweather or Andy Hazelton. Nerves of steel maybe. Idiots? Yes definitely. They should have been instructed to go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 22, 2022 Admin Share Posted September 22, 2022 The big picture view. 80 hour loop. You can see the big upper level low that will eventually merge with Fiona, swinging in south of Hudson Bay. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 1 hour ago, MaineJay said: Sable Island is just SE of Nova Scotia, looking like it'll be wild out there. Well see how long the webcam holds out. https://www.see.cam/ca/07/sable-island/sable-island-airport The book the perfect storm makes a pretty good case for Sable Island as one of the premier shipwreck spots. Real graveyard of the Atlantic there. Storms like this must have a lot to do with it. You're probably talking 40 foot breakers there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Columbusbuckeye Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 14 hours ago, FortySixAnd32 said: Can we use this as the avatar for the Hurricane? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 22, 2022 Admin Share Posted September 22, 2022 Latest microwave as of 4 hours ago shows a somewhat open eye to the SW, with a bit of a double eyewall on the northern flank. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 22, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 22, 2022 (edited) A little breezy in Bermuda https://www.earthcam.com/world/bermuda/pembroke/?cam=bermuda https://www.portbermudawebcam.com/ http://www.weather.bm/images/Satellite/LocalVisIRRadarSferic/2022-09-22-1305_SAT004.jpeg See the waves hitting the beach on this cam https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/bermuda/st-george-s-parish/st-george-s-parish/cahow.html Should note that cahow is on Nonsuch Island located on the NE side of Bermuda, well protected from western swell and somewhat protected by reefs from the east. Edited September 22, 2022 by StretchCT 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 22, 2022 Admin Share Posted September 22, 2022 30 foot waves at this buoy as Fiona passed by. Cooled the SSTs a bit also. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 22, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 22, 2022 (edited) Highest I could find on GFS was 86kts near landfall. 930 is incredible. Current record for Nova Scotia is 950 and the lowest pressure ever in Canada was in Newfoundland on Jan 20th 1977 at 940mb. So a good chance of breaking the all time low pressure record for Canada. Euro is bananas. GFS Gusts - in kts Euro gusts No gusts to hour for ukie, but this is pretty much the highest over land. Edited September 22, 2022 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 22, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 22, 2022 Recon so far... Two drops with 937mb on them One drop with 108kt (124mph) wind at surface and top wind of 135kts at 892mb. One drop with 98kt (113 mph) wind at surface and top wind of 134kts at 892mb One drop with 101kts (116mph) at surface and top wind of 143kts (165mph) at 911mb HDOBs - top flight wind of 125kts and top sfmr wind of 107kts. Latest vortex: 937mb, closed circular eye 32nm. Top sfmr wind 122mph. max flight level wind 146mph. HDOB Trend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 22, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 22, 2022 NHC Disco basically saying Fiona has peaked, but what was really cool was the mention of the saildrone they have 45nm east of the center. Spoiler Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022 The satellite presentation of the hurricane is not quite as impressive as yesterday. The large eye has become cloud filled and the surrounding cloud top temperatures are not quite as cold. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has very recently reported a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 126 kt in the southeastern eyewall. The peak SFMR winds have been 107 kt and latest minimum central pressure is around 936 mb. These data support maintaining the initial intensity of 115 kt. A NOAA Saildrone located about 45 n mi east of the center has recently reported sustained winds of 67 kt and a significant wave height of 50 ft. The hurricane is beginning to accelerate north-northeastward with an initial motion estimate of 025/13 kt. Additional acceleration is expected while Fiona moves north-northeastward along the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies through tonight. On Friday, a vigorous mid-latitude trough moving off the coast of the northeastern U.S. is expected to steer Fiona northward toward Atlantic Canada. The storm is forecast to pass over portions of eastern Nova Scotia by Saturday morning, and a slower northward or north-northeastward motion over the Gulf of St. Lawrence and portions of Newfoundland and Labrador is expected after that time. The track guidance remains in very good agreement, and the new official forecast is once again essentially an update of the previous one. Only a slight decrease in intensity is predicted over the next 12-24 hours while Fiona remains over warm waters and in a low-shear environment. By 36 hours, interaction with the aforementioned trough will begin extratropical transition, and this process is forecast to be complete by 48 hours when the system is near Nova Scotia. The global model guidance indicates that the post-tropical cyclone will continue to produce hurricane-force winds when it reaches Nova Scotia. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and closely follows the global model guidance during the post-tropical phase. Based on the latest forecast the Canadian Hurricane Centre has issued Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches for much of Atlantic Canada. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda tonight through Friday morning. 2. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a powerful hurricane-force cyclone late Friday and Saturday, and significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall are becoming increasingly likely. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for much of Atlantic Canada. 3. Large swells generated by Fiona are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along much of the east coast of the United States, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 28.6N 70.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 30.7N 68.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 34.6N 65.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 40.6N 61.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 45.5N 61.2W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 25/0000Z 48.1N 60.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 25/1200Z 51.8N 59.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 26/1200Z 58.9N 58.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 27/1200Z 64.2N 57.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown NNNN 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 22, 2022 Author Share Posted September 22, 2022 11 minutes ago, StretchCT said: NHC Disco basically saying Fiona has peaked, but what was really cool was the mention of the saildrone they have 45nm east of the center. Hide contents Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022 The satellite presentation of the hurricane is not quite as impressive as yesterday. The large eye has become cloud filled and the surrounding cloud top temperatures are not quite as cold. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has very recently reported a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 126 kt in the southeastern eyewall. The peak SFMR winds have been 107 kt and latest minimum central pressure is around 936 mb. These data support maintaining the initial intensity of 115 kt. A NOAA Saildrone located about 45 n mi east of the center has recently reported sustained winds of 67 kt and a significant wave height of 50 ft. The hurricane is beginning to accelerate north-northeastward with an initial motion estimate of 025/13 kt. Additional acceleration is expected while Fiona moves north-northeastward along the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies through tonight. On Friday, a vigorous mid-latitude trough moving off the coast of the northeastern U.S. is expected to steer Fiona northward toward Atlantic Canada. The storm is forecast to pass over portions of eastern Nova Scotia by Saturday morning, and a slower northward or north-northeastward motion over the Gulf of St. Lawrence and portions of Newfoundland and Labrador is expected after that time. The track guidance remains in very good agreement, and the new official forecast is once again essentially an update of the previous one. Only a slight decrease in intensity is predicted over the next 12-24 hours while Fiona remains over warm waters and in a low-shear environment. By 36 hours, interaction with the aforementioned trough will begin extratropical transition, and this process is forecast to be complete by 48 hours when the system is near Nova Scotia. The global model guidance indicates that the post-tropical cyclone will continue to produce hurricane-force winds when it reaches Nova Scotia. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and closely follows the global model guidance during the post-tropical phase. Based on the latest forecast the Canadian Hurricane Centre has issued Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches for much of Atlantic Canada. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda tonight through Friday morning. 2. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a powerful hurricane-force cyclone late Friday and Saturday, and significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall are becoming increasingly likely. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for much of Atlantic Canada. 3. Large swells generated by Fiona are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along much of the east coast of the United States, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 28.6N 70.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 30.7N 68.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 34.6N 65.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 40.6N 61.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 45.5N 61.2W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 25/0000Z 48.1N 60.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 25/1200Z 51.8N 59.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 26/1200Z 58.9N 58.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 27/1200Z 64.2N 57.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown NNNN I hope it does not sink, because one of them survived Sam in 2021. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 22, 2022 Author Share Posted September 22, 2022 HAFS has this at 154 mph as a BOMB CYCLONE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 Going to be a great Friday evening into Saturday watching this evolve. I think Irma’s year was one of the last times work didn’t interfere with a cane landfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 22, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 22, 2022 Seems to be going north last two hours or so. Some lightning earlier near the center, now in the bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 22, 2022 Admin Share Posted September 22, 2022 Continental trof is closing in on her. Should be a pretty impressive extra tropical transition once she's captured. The front that moved through here today dropped almost 2 inches, the same front will likely create a PRE for areas in Atlantic Canada. ECMWF at 922mb in the frame the front that before landfall. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 22, 2022 Admin Share Posted September 22, 2022 Latest microwave shows a bit of an opening in the inner eyewall on the south, but that's kinda been characteristic of this storm. It still has concentric connective rings that seen to be contacting and replenishing the eyewall, instead of going through the ERCs that we've seen in other storms. Each one really has a personality. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 22, 2022 Admin Share Posted September 22, 2022 Buoy about 100 miles north of Fiona. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41048 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 (edited) looks like Fiona’s core will stay well off to Bermuda’s west… Edited September 22, 2022 by Burr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 (edited) At it’s current trajectory, it is (again) staying [edit: slightly] west of guidance… would need to be going NE instead of NNE if it were to follow the center of the cone. Edited September 22, 2022 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 22, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 22, 2022 It's actually a very nice looking hurricane. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 22, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 22, 2022 (edited) She's going east now? Some lighting in the core again. Waves crashing on the rocks now. Edited September 22, 2022 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 22, 2022 Admin Share Posted September 22, 2022 I'd wager she's beginning to feel the incoming trof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 20 minutes ago, MaineJay said: I'd wager she's beginning to feel the incoming trof. Yup…. Can see the pivot east beginning (right after my previous post, too) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 Help… For those of us who sit in the back of the classroom, some of the characteristics we’d expect to see during a transition from tropical (warm core) to hybrid / extra-tropical (cold core) include… ~ expanding wind field ~ asymmetry of the vertical stack ~ acceleration of forward speed … what else? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 G’nite, Fiona. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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