Fiona | 130 mph and 932 mb peak | Extremely powerful Bomb Cyclone

[Burr]

Good night, Fiona

 

[Iceresistance]

Recon has found 115 knot FL winds in the East Eyewall that is translated to 105 knots

 

Next pass is the NW-SE. 

[Iceresistance]

Eye Dropsonde has surface pressure of 953 mb with 3 knots of wind. 

[StretchCT]

166mph on the dropsonde at roughly 750 feet. 

[Iceresistance]

31 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Next pass is the NW-SE. 

Nevermind, it's a NW pass return. 

[StretchCT]

952mb on latest dropsonde

 

[StretchCT]

9 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Nevermind, it's a NW pass return. 

One of our more creative hurricane hunters

[StretchCT]

122mph per latest vortex message

Spoiler

 

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 20th day of the month at 23:37Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Name: Fiona
Storm Number & Year: 07 in 2022 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 21
Observation Number: 08

A. Time of Center Fix: 20th day of the month at 23:15:46Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22.86N 71.63W
B. Center Fix Location: 101 statute miles (163 km) to the NNW (342°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (U.K.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,669m (8,757ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 952mb (28.12 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 160° at 10kts (From the SSE at 12mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
G. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 20° to 200° (NNE to SSW)
G. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles)
G. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 106kts (122.0mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NNE (20°) of center fix at 23:12:41Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 125° at 121kts (From the SE at 139.2mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NNE (23°) of center fix at 23:10:47Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 95kts (109.3mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NE (43°) of center fix at 23:23:57Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 147° at 112kts (From the SSE at 128.9mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NE (43°) of center fix at 23:23:54Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,070m (10,072ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,071m (10,075ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 121kts (~ 139.2mph) which was observed 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NNE (23°) from the flight level center at 23:10:47Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 18°C (64°F) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NNE (17°) from the flight level center

 

[Burr]

Yeah, if that was an ERC, it looks like it’s over and restrengthening is underway…

 

[Burr]

10 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

One of our more creative hurricane hunters

Dedication

[StretchCT]

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 71.7W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM N OF NORTH CAICOS ISLAND
ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES

[StretchCT]

947mb

[StretchCT]

rapid intensification probs.

[StretchCT]

Diurnal pulsing schedule 

[Burr]

Predicting RI and a Cat4 by morning.  Beast mode.  Yikes!

Last 6 hours comparison…

 

Edited September 21, 2022 by Burr

[MaineJay]

20 hour loop.

[MaineJay]

13 minutes ago, Burr said:

Predicting RI and a Cat4 by morning.  Beast mode.  Yikes!

Last 6 hours comparison…

 

That deep convection on the east side, I wonder if there is some dry air being wrapped in. The air getting pulled off Hispaniola I think would be downsloping, which would in theory being warming and drying it that air.  It then might be acting as kind of a dry line, creating extra lift.  Some tall clouds there.

[Burr]

16 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

That deep convection on the east side, I wonder if there is some dry air being wrapped in. The air getting pulled off Hispaniola I think would be downsloping, which would in theory being warming and drying it that air.  It then might be acting as kind of a dry line, creating extra lift.  Some tall clouds there.

That also could help explain the disorganization around the COC earlier today… it was still sucking in too much downsloped dry air on the east side.  You can see it in the longer loop you posted, too, with the blues and greens.  Looks like the COC now is fully closed and wrapped with stronger convection again.

(I have not had a chance to read the NHC discussions today)

Edited September 21, 2022 by Burr

[ClicheVortex2014]

Yeah it's getting quite strong. Very obvious mesovortices.

Edited September 21, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[StretchCT]

Dropsonde with 948mb

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&year=2022&product=sonde&storm=Fiona&mission=21&agency=NOAA&ob=09-21-0117-19-948-10-8

edit:  Vortex message confirms.  They usually go with the vort message for updates.  Also interesting is that the eye is back to circular and 26 miles wide. 

Spoiler

 

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 1:43Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Name: Fiona
Storm Number & Year: 07 in 2022 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 21
Observation Number: 21

A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 1:16:51Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22.99N 71.79W
B. Center Fix Location: 113 statute miles (182 km) to the NNW (338°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (U.K.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,649m (8,691ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 948mb (28.00 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 95° at 8kts (From the E at 9mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 88kts (101.3mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the SSE (152°) of center fix at 1:12:09Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 239° at 101kts (From the WSW at 116.2mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the SSE (152°) of center fix at 1:11:27Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 101kts (116.2mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the NE (38°) of center fix at 1:25:14Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 126° at 107kts (From the SE at 123.1mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NE (35°) of center fix at 1:27:02Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,072m (10,079ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,006m (9,862ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 117kts (~ 134.6mph) which was observed 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the E (90°) from the flight level center at 22:32:03Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 19°C (66°F) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the SSE (154°) from the flight level center

 

Edited September 21, 2022 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

Latest flight pattern, and center locations.

[ClicheVortex2014]

57 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Latest flight pattern, and center locations.

That job would be so amazing. Getting paid well to fly into a hurricane. Sounds scarier than it probably is.

Requires you to be able to fly AND not be freaked out by heights... so I'm out.

Edited September 21, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[StretchCT]

11:00 PM EDT Tue Sep 20
Location: 23.2°N 71.8°W
Moving: N at 8 mph
Min pressure: 947 mb
Max sustained: 125 mph

I think Cat 4 is 131 mph. 
disco has it as cat 4 in 12 hours. Also says that the satellite presentation suggests the winds are stronger than what they are finding. 
 

Spoiler

Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022 Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft that has been investigating Fiona this evening show that the hurricane has strengthened since this afternoon. The aircraft has measured peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 120 kt, and SFMR winds of around 110 kt earlier in the evening. Based on those data, the intensity was increased to 110 kt on the intermediate advisory at 0000 UTC. Since that time, the satellite presentation has continued to improve with the eye becoming better defined and the surrounding ring of deep convection expanding with colder cloud top temperatures. The pressure has fallen a few more millibars and is now down to 947 mb, however the plane has not found any higher winds during several passes through the northeastern and northern portion of the eyewall. It is worth noting that the latest subjective and objective satellite estimates suggest a stronger intensity, and this may be a case in which the winds are lagging the improved satellite presentation, which is not too uncommon. The vertical wind shear over the hurricane is expected to remain low to moderate during the next couple of days. During that time, the hurricane will be traversing SSTs of 29-30 degrees Celsius, and remain in a moist environment. These conditions should allow for some additional strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours, but after that time, difficult-to-predict eyewall replacement cycles are likely to cause some fluctuations in intensity. By day 3, the system is forecast to interact with a vigorous mid-troposphere trough and the system is expected to become a large and powerful extratropical cyclone near Atlantic Canada. The latest satellite and aircraft fixes indicate that the hurricane is now moving just west of due north or 350/7 kt. Fiona should move generally northward around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge during the next 24 hours. After that time, the hurricane is forecast to turn north-northeastward and begin to gradually accelerate as the aforementioned trough approaches from the northwest. Very little cross-track changes were made to the latest NHC forecast, but it is slightly slower than the previous advisory to be in better agreement with the bulk of the dynamical models. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rains south of Fiona will continue to impact the Turks and Caicos through tonight with additional flooding possible. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda by late Thursday. 3. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a powerful hurricane-force cyclone late Friday and Saturday, and could produce significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of Fiona and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 23.2N 71.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 24.3N 71.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 26.0N 71.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 28.1N 70.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 30.8N 69.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 23/1200Z 34.3N 65.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 39.5N 61.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 48.3N 59.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 26/0000Z 55.4N 58.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown

 

 

Edited September 21, 2022 by StretchCT

[ClicheVortex2014]

Wrong thread

 

 

Edited September 21, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Wrong thread

 

Edited September 21, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014