Fiona | 130 mph and 932 mb peak | Extremely powerful Bomb Cyclone

[StretchCT]

34 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

ADT is Cat 3 and 100kts.  Should be interesting recon.

 

First pass through and 971mb, 91kt flight level and 81kt sfmr winds. 

 

 

[StretchCT]

Shoot I already missed that they upped it to 100mph.

5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 19
Location: 20.1°N 69.8°W
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 972 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph

Spoiler

urricane Fiona Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072022
500 PM AST Mon Sep 19 2022

The hurricane is beginning to move away from the Dominican Republic
and over the warm waters of the Atlantic north of Hispaniola.
Fiona's cloud pattern is well organized and its inner core is
becoming better defined with very cold cloud tops becoming
concentrated near the eye.  Upper-level outflow is strong over most
of the circulation.  The current intensity estimate is set at 85 kt
which is a little below the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB.  An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system in a few hours, and assess its
structure and intensity.

Fiona continues to move northwestward, at a slightly faster forward
speed, or at about 325/9 kt.  There is little change to the track
forecast philosophy from the previous few advisory packages.
During the next couple of days, the hurricane is expected to
gradually turn toward the north while moving along the western
periphery of a mid-level subtropical anticyclone.  In 3-5 days,
Fiona should turn toward the north-northeast and accelerate in
response to a vigorous mid-tropospheric trough near the northeast
coast of the United States.

Global model forecasts continue to show moderate upper-level 
west-southwesterly flow over Fiona while it moves over the 
southwestern Atlantic early this week.  Although this flow should 
cause some shear over the hurricane during the next couple of
days, the intensity guidance models indicate that this shear will
not be strong enough to prevent further intensification.  The
official intensity forecast has been increased a little more for
this advisory and is in good agreement with the latest LGEM
guidance.  It now appears that Fiona will become a major hurricane
sooner than previously forecast.

Near the end of the forecast period, as the system becomes more
embedded within the  mid-latitude flow and interacts with the
strong mid-tropospheric trough, it should be making the transition
into a vigorous extratropical cyclone.  This is also suggested by
the latest FSU cyclone phases analyses.

Key Messages:

1.  Heavy rains from the trailing bands of Fiona will continue 
across Puerto Rico through this evening, and across the eastern 
Dominican Republic through tonight.  These rains could produce 
life-threatening and catastrophic flooding along with mudslides and 
landslides across Puerto Rico and eastern portions of the Dominican 
Republic.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected over the Turks and Caicos, with 
tropical storm conditions over the southeastern Bahamas, beginning 
late tonight or early Tuesday.

3.  Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Fiona.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 20.1N  69.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 21.2N  70.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 22.8N  71.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 24.1N  71.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 25.7N  71.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
 60H  22/0600Z 27.6N  70.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  22/1800Z 29.9N  68.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  23/1800Z 37.0N  62.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  24/1800Z 48.5N  58.5W   80 KT  90 MPH

They mention the 100mph being less than the ADT but now Adjusted T is at Cat 4

Edited September 19, 2022 by StretchCT

[1816]

17 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Goodnight Fiona. T&C gotta watch this one closely.

[StretchCT]

Turks and Caicos webcams

https://www.sevenstarsgracebay.com/live-cam

https://hdontap.com/index.php/video/stream/beach-enclave-turks-and-caicos-live-cam

https://livecam.thesomerset.com/

Spoiler alert - it's dark.

[StretchCT]

First vortex with 975mb. Elliptical eye 18 by 13 nm.  Open in the SW. Max surface wind 93mph. Max flight level wind 107mph.  

Spoiler

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 23:31Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Name: Fiona
Storm Number & Year: 07 in 2022 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 16
Observation Number: 01

A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 22:53:25Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20.14N 70.05W
B. Center Fix Location: 115 statute miles (185 km) to the N (356°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 975mb (28.80 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 120° at 4kts (From the ESE at 5mph)
F. Eye Character: Open from the south to the southwest
G. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
G. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 130° to 310° (SE to NW)
G. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles)
G. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 80kts (92.1mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles to the WNW (293°) of center fix at 22:51:06Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 14° at 78kts (From the NNE at 89.8mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the WNW (291°) of center fix at 22:50:28Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 81kts (93.2mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the E (84°) of center fix at 22:58:05Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 183° at 93kts (From the S at 107.0mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the E (85°) of center fix at 22:58:28Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,460m (8,071ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,467m (8,094ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
S. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 93kts (~ 107.0mph) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the E (85°) from the flight level center at 22:58:28Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the WNW (293°) from the flight level center
 

Raw T jumped again to 6.2, as did adjusted T.  Final T and CI lag.  ADT has this one now, even with the lagged CI, at 957mb and 105kts

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt07L.html

[Burr]

BULLETIN Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 22A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 800 PM AST Mon Sep 19 2022 ...

NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND FIONA STRENGTHENING...

...STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...

0000 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 70.1W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB... 28.76 INCHES

Edited September 20, 2022 by Burr

[Burr]

[StretchCT]

 

[StretchCT]

Both missions now have 94kt sfmr winds with one flight having 100kts.

[StretchCT]

Top wind in storm on a single dropsonde is 144mph.  There's bound to be something higher.  It's CAT 3 at basically 60 feet off the surface.  

[StretchCT]

110.5mph latest sfmr.  It's only a 10sec wind so they could toss it.  Or they could use it as evidence that Fiona is now a major hurricane.

[Tater]

On 9/18/2022 at 7:52 PM, Uscg Ast said:

Either way - The grid that was redone after Maria should have been the most modern and resilient in the world. Instead a Cat 1 Hurricane took out the entire Island. 

They need to use underground lines instead of standard powerlines with wooden poles that snap like toothpicks in hurricanes.

I helped out with some rebuilding a month after Maria and it was obvious then that they weren't gonna do a good job with their infrastructure. However,  that's a government problem. A lot of the buildings are much more resilient than one might think. They use a lot of concrete in their buildings, and when they put in rebar, they go ahead and load 'er up with rebar! Also, they do an excellent job of building things so that the wind can't work things loose (just takes a small corner of a roof to come loose and soon the whole roof is gone). It was a bit depressing to see how many roofs were gone in some of the poorer areas, but it was also amazing how many neighborhoods were virtually entirely intact despite taking a direct hit from a Cat 4.

For some reason, folks do a better of job of building things when they have skin in the game. Unfortunately, PR's grid embodies one of Thomas Sowell's legendary quotes: "It is hard to imagine a more stupid or more dangerous way of making decisions than by putting those decisions in the hands of people who pay no price for being wrong."

[Sentinel]

3 hours ago, Tater said:

They need to use underground lines instead of standard powerlines with wooden poles that snap like toothpicks in hurricanes.

I helped out with some rebuilding a month after Maria and it was obvious then that they weren't gonna do a good job with their infrastructure. However,  that's a government problem. A lot of the buildings are much more resilient than one might think. They use a lot of concrete in their buildings, and when they put in rebar, they go ahead and load 'er up with rebar! Also, they do an excellent job of building things so that the wind can't work things loose (just takes a small corner of a roof to come loose and soon the whole roof is gone). It was a bit depressing to see how many roofs were gone in some of the poorer areas, but it was also amazing how many neighborhoods were virtually entirely intact despite taking a direct hit from a Cat 4.

For some reason, folks do a better of job of building things when they have skin in the game. Unfortunately, PR's grid embodies one of Thomas Sowell's legendary quotes: "It is hard to imagine a more stupid or more dangerous way of making decisions than by putting those decisions in the hands of people who pay no price for being wrong."

Joisted Masonry/ISO-2 buildings really are quite resilient. 

 

Regarding underground lines - there are some drawbacks, the most significant of which is maintenence. Due to being in the ground - at least how I've been taught- leads to significant time and financial resources for repairs as insulation for underground transmission lines is quite thick/specialized. 

[MaineJay]

The strongest storm on record to hit Canada was hurricane Ginny in 1963. 948mb 105mph.  This could rival the 1775 Newfoundland storm that killed 4,000, which was likely a stronger storm.

ECMWF and CMC have currently put Cape Breton Island in the RFQ.

GFS is furthest east hitting Newfoundland.

 

[Iceresistance]

Fiona is now at 115 mph and 967 MB. May have weakened somewhat by now.

[MaineJay]

As of about 2 hours ago, microwave imagery shows the eye open to the south.

Looking at more recent satellite imagery, I'd say that opening has rotated around to the east, and is shrinking.  It may be considered that some sort of eyewall replacement has occurred. It'll be interesting to see if the CDO expands.

[MaineJay]

Last 10 GFS. Glad this can only trend so far, but this is trending towards the CMC/ECMWF combo that rakes Cape Breton.

[FortySixAnd32]

20 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

As of about 2 hours ago, microwave imagery shows the eye open to the south.

Looking at more recent satellite imagery, I'd say that opening has rotated around to the east, and is shrinking.  It may be considered that some sort of eyewall replacement has occurred. It'll be interesting to see if the CDO expands.

That's not a good thing, correct?

[Iceresistance]

Recon has found 958.3 mb extrapolated and SMFR is still at 100 knots.

[MaineJay]

15 minutes ago, FortySixAnd32 said:

That's not a good thing, correct?

If indeed it is an eyewall replacement, we generally see temporary weakening as the wind field expands.  She's not super organized, so that's a plus, but there is some decent convection developing within a larger, slightly warming central dense overcast.  So hard to say exactly if it's strengthening, or wobbling.

  Hopefully it stays far enough west to spare Bermuda, SE Canada is likely getting hit somewhere, just hope it's not a viscous cat 3-4 that is going through extra tropical transition.

[StretchCT]

[Burr]

BULLETIN Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 24A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 800 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022 ...MAJOR HURRICANE FIONA BRINGING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...

INFORMATION

---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.6N 71.2W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NW OF GRAND TURK ISLAND

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH... 185 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB... 28.35 INCHES

 

Edited September 20, 2022 by Burr

[StretchCT]

This was the last metar from Turks yesterday. I’m assuming they closed the airport and stopped reporting 

[Tater]

4 hours ago, Uscg Ast said:

Regarding underground lines - there are some drawbacks, the most significant of which is maintenence. Due to being in the ground - at least how I've been taught- leads to significant time and financial resources for repairs as insulation for underground transmission lines is quite thick/specialized. 

Maintenance is absolutely an issue, but I think it would be less of an issue than constant blackouts. Of course, by now most folks have some combo of generators, solar panels, fresh water storage, and so forth, so maybe coping with blackouts is manageable. However, an entire island running on generator power quickly becomes an air quality/respiratory issue.

The steel and concrete power poles fared better, though not 100% reliable. Its possible that some combination of those poles with tighter spacing and reinforced cables could decrease the chances of problems. However  watching the aftermath of Dorian and seeing footage from Josh Morgerman showing leveled reinforced concrete walls made me realize the destructive power of a Cat 5 hurricane, and I don't think any above ground solution is a "permanent" fix. Unfortunately we all know that proper infrastructure investments are unlikely and things will just be patched together between storms. It's a political problem, not an engineering problem.

[StretchCT]

24 minutes ago, Tater said:

Maintenance is absolutely an issue, but I think it would be less of an issue than constant blackouts. Of course, by now most folks have some combo of generators, solar panels, fresh water storage, and so forth, so maybe coping with blackouts is manageable. However, an entire island running on generator power quickly becomes an air quality/respiratory issue.

The steel and concrete power poles fared better, though not 100% reliable. Its possible that some combination of those poles with tighter spacing and reinforced cables could decrease the chances of problems. However  watching the aftermath of Dorian and seeing footage from Josh Morgerman showing leveled reinforced concrete walls made me realize the destructive power of a Cat 5 hurricane, and I don't think any above ground solution is a "permanent" fix. Unfortunately we all know that proper infrastructure investments are unlikely and things will just be patched together between storms. It's a political problem, not an engineering problem.

We need to bury lines on the east coast and California too. Not going to happen. I lose power typically multiple times a year. Once or twice for “maintenance “ once or twice for a car vs utility pole. These are typically short periods, under a couple of hours.  Wind, snow or ice will take me offline for days. I live in one of the wealthiest counties in one of the wealthiest countries. We don’t get it right here, how are other areas going to do it.