Moderators StretchCT Posted September 19, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 19, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 Approaching Dominican Republic… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 (edited) I was think it looked like Fiona was south / west of guidance, and… looks like I’m not the only one to notice. Eye diameter down to 10-15 nautical miles. 85mph sustained winds, pressure down to 982mb. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/190255.shtml? Spoiler 000 WTNT42 KNHC 190255 TCDAT2 Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 18 2022 Radar imagery and recent fixes from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that Fiona has jogged westward over the Mona Passage, in between Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic this evening. Radar, microwave imagery, and observations from the aircraft indicate that the eye has become smaller, with the radius of maximum winds decreasing to 10-15 n mi. There has been some warming of the clouds tops in the band just outside the CDO, but the conventional satellite presentation has not changed much since late this afternoon. The aircraft has measured a peak 700-mb flight- level wind of 75 kt, and SFMR winds of around 70 kt. A dropwindsonde in the northwestern eyewall measured a mean wind of 89 kt in the lowest 150 m of the profile, which supports the 75 kt initial intensity. The aircraft just reported a minimum pressure of 982 mb on it latest pass through the center just a short time ago. As mentioned above, Fiona has been moving more westward this evening, but the longer-term motion estimate is 300/9 kt. With this westward jog, the center is likely to make landfall in the eastern portion of the Dominican Republic overnight, and the early portion of the track forecast has been adjusted accordingly. The dynamical model guidance insists that a northwestward motion should begin soon, and the models are in good agreement that Fiona will move around the western periphery of a subtropical ridge over the next several days. Later in the forecast period, Fiona is forecast to accelerate northeastward, and north-northeastward ahead of a trough that is expected to move across the northeastern United States by the end of the week. The official forecast is near the center of the guidance envelope, but is slightly slower than the previous forecast at days 4 and 5 to be closer to the latest consensus aids. Fiona could strengthen slightly within the next few hours before it reaches the coast of the Dominican Republic overnight. After that time, some weakening could occur while the center remains near eastern Hispaniola. Once Fiona moves over the Atlantic waters north of the Dominican Republic, the hurricane will be over warm water and in fairly moist environment. Although there is likely to be some moderate shear over the hurricane, nearly all of the intensity models suggest the cyclone will strengthen, and the official forecast again calls for Fiona to become a major hurricane in a couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the IVCN intensity aid, and is similar to the previous wind speed forecast. Based on Fiona's latest forecast track, the government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands. Edited September 19, 2022 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted September 19, 2022 Admin Share Posted September 19, 2022 1 hour ago, Burr said: Approaching Dominican Republic… While the DR is now unfortunately in its cross hairs, if this goes far enough West, the mountains will wreak havoc with the circulation. We shall see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 19, 2022 Author Share Posted September 19, 2022 Landfall as a 90 mph, 980 MB Hurricane and STILL getting stronger. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 Still heading west. But looking stronger… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 68.6W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WSW OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH ...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB ...28.85 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 500 AM AST Mon Sep 19 2022 Fiona strengthened before making landfall as an 80-kt hurricane in the Dominican Republic to the south-southwest of Punta Cana around 0730 UTC this morning. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters around 0500 UTC indicated a closed eye, with a minimum pressure that had fallen to 979 mb. Soon thereafter, the eye cleared out in infrared satellite imagery and the inner core structure improved in NWS San Juan radar data. The center of Fiona is currently inland over the eastern Dominican Republic, but radar data indicate that the outer rainbands of Fiona continue to move northward across Puerto Rico. The initial intensity is 80 kt for this advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 Good morning… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 19, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 19, 2022 (edited) This station on the north shore DR is reporting 33 inches of rain so far. This one on the south shore is 3in with top wind of 21mph 48 hr precip for PR. The Ponce station is still up but hasn't recorded any rainfall since midnight. Wind still strong - these are todays gusts Edited September 19, 2022 by StretchCT 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 19, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 19, 2022 Some DR METAR wind data https://metar-taf.com/?c=188027.-694583.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 19, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 19, 2022 Experimental HAFS model has Fiona peaking at 142kts/163mph 0z HWRF peaked at 157kts. That looked weird though. The 6z went back to 127kts/146mph. HMON was similar. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 19, 2022 Author Share Posted September 19, 2022 27 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Experimental HAFS model has Fiona peaking at 142kts/163mph 0z HWRF peaked at 157kts. That looked weird though. The 6z went back to 127kts/146mph. HMON was similar. The middle run bugged out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 19, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 19, 2022 The eye being seen on radar 215 miles away is unusual. This is around 33k feet. The longer loop shows a NNW motion. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 19, 2022 Author Share Posted September 19, 2022 22 minutes ago, StretchCT said: The eye being seen on radar 215 miles away is unusual. This is around 33k feet. The longer loop shows a NNW motion. Btw, I've used this picture on a different forum to show that its still being picked up on radar. ;) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 19, 2022 Author Share Posted September 19, 2022 Fiona has an eye now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 19, 2022 Author Share Posted September 19, 2022 (edited) Advisory 21A now has Fiona at 90 mph and 975 mb Edited September 19, 2022 by Iceresistance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 19, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 19, 2022 (edited) Radar estimates. Highest I could find was 32". Looks like the upsloping squeezed all the liquid out with the northern half averaging 4" For rough estimates, bright green is 10", bright magenta is 15", darkest blue is 20", yellos is 23" orange 25" Darkest red 29" and white 31" Edited September 19, 2022 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 19, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 19, 2022 4pm rainfall totals. Close to the radar estimates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 (edited) BULLETIN Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 22...CORRECTED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 500 PM AST Mon Sep 19 2022 Corrected the Hurricane Watch breakpoints in Dominican Republic ... FIONA STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 69.8W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH... 155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB... 28.71 INCHES Edited September 19, 2022 by Burr 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 19, 2022 Admin Share Posted September 19, 2022 She looks like shes shrugging off any effects from being over land. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 (edited) Looking nice there in the last few frames... Edited September 19, 2022 by junior 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 19, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 19, 2022 Goodnight Fiona. T&C gotta watch this one closely. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 19, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 19, 2022 (edited) ADT is Cat 3 and 100kts. Should be interesting recon. Deep micronet intensity estimator popped up too. Edited September 19, 2022 by StretchCT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 19, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 19, 2022 This is a new tool for me but shows the probability of rapid intensification. I'm thinking that anything over 50% is likely. Ships is at 71%. Highest I've seen, but then again its like the second or third time I've looked at this. https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ai-ri/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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