Cat 2 Hurricane Earl l Peak 105mph 954mb| post tropical

[StretchCT]

Seemed like this mission was a shorter one.  Maybe it just took a while to get there? Interesting that the eastern side has a more expansive windfield over 50kts at flight level. Yet the drop on the west side of the center has the higher wind reading, despite lower flight level reading.  

Last vortex message in spoiler - eye is open from west to southeast and is circular with a 15nm diameter. Top surface winds 70mph.  Top flight winds 103mph. Decent temp difference inside/outside eye. 

Spoiler

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 19:29Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305
Storm Name: Earl
Storm Number & Year: 06 in 2022 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 17
Observation Number: 12

A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 18:27:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.24N 65.60W
B. Center Fix Location: 422 statute miles (679 km) to the S (187°) from Hamilton, Bermuda (U.K.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,891m (9,485ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 977mb (28.85 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 115° at 15kts (From the ESE at 17mph)
F. Eye Character: Open from the west to the southeast
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 61kts (70.2mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the WNW (288°) of center fix at 18:20:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 38° at 70kts (From the NE at 80.6mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the WNW (292°) of center fix at 18:19:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually)Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 58kt s (66.7mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the SE (135°) of center fix at 18:41:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 229° at 90kts (From the SW at 103.6mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the SE (135°) of center fix at 18:41:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 8°C (46°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,052m (10,013ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,056m (10,026ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 3.5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 90kts (~ 103.6mph) which was observed 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the SE (135°) from the flight level center at 18:41:00Z
 

 

[StretchCT]

Kinda funny looking.  No outflow to the W/SW

 

 

You can see how the upper low to its west is pulling the northern outflow toward it, but the westerly flow is eliminating the west/southwest

But closer to the surface the primary circulation is from Earl.

Edited September 7, 2022 by StretchCT

[ClicheVortex2014]

Starting to get a distinct eye

 

Edited September 7, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[StretchCT]

5PM Disco. 130mph max forecast.  Models showing 40kt increase in 48hrs and DTOPS has 35kts in the next 24hrs. 

Spoiler

Hurricane Earl Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062022
500 PM AST Wed Sep 07 2022

The structure of Earl is gradually improving, with deep convective
cold tops rotating around the core with an occasional warm spot
becoming evident on both infrared and visible satellite imagery. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission has been flying through
Earl this afternoon, and they found a peak 700 mb flight level wind
of 90 kt in the SE quadrant of the hurricane. However, SFMR winds
have been lower than earlier observed in the NOAA P-3 mission and
the central pressure has stabilized somewhere in the 974-976 mb
range. These observations support keeping the intensity at 75 kt for
this advisory, which is also in agreement with the 1800 UTC Dvorak
T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB.

Center fixes from the aircraft show that Earl continues to move east
of due north estimated at 010/7 kt, and may be in the initial stages
of making a more rightward turn. The track reasoning has not changed
for the next couple of days, where Earl is expected to gradually
turn to the northeast and accelerate as it is caught in between a
mid-level ridge to the southeast, and a digging mid-latitude trough
to the northwest. The aforementioned trough is forecast to
ultimately capture Earl sometime in the 60-96 hour period, though
timing differences between the guidance are driving significant
along track spread in the forecast by that time. The latest NHC
track forecast was largely unchanged in the short-term, remaining
close to the tightly clustered guidance, though was shifted a bit
east compared to the prior cycle after Earl becomes extra-tropical.

The deep-layer vertical wind shear is beginning to decrease over
Earl, now under 20-kt in both GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance.
This shear is forecast to decrease further tonight and be 10 kt or
under from 24-48 hours. Sea-surface temperatures are also expected
to remain at 29 C or warmer over this same time span. In terms of
the high-resolution regional hurricane model guidance, the most
recent HMON, experimental HAFS-S and HAFS-A, and COAMPS-TC all
explicitly show Earl becoming a Category 4 hurricane over the next
48-60h. The COAMPS-TC ensemble from the 00z cycle also indicated at
least 75 percent of its members becoming a Category 4 hurricane as
the hurricane passes by to the southeast of Bermuda. Finally, DTOPS
RI-probabilities from the latest SHIPS run indicate a greater than
50 percent chance of a 35 kt increase in intensity over the next 24
hours. While the latest intensity forecast will not go quite that
high, it does show a 40 kt increase in intensity in 48 hours still
making Earl a Category 4 hurricane. While it is relatively rare to
see such an intense hurricane at that latitude in the forecast
period, the guidance support, plus the favorable environment of Earl
being positioned in the right entrance region of a upper-level jet
streak ahead of the trough should provide both good dynamical
support on top of the favorable thermodynamic environment by the
warm SSTs. After 60 h, Earl will likely rapidly undergo
extra-tropical transition as an upper-level trough digs in and
captures Earl, increasing baroclinicity and removing the deep
convection as the storm moves poleward of the Gulf Stream.

KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Although Earl's center is forecast to pass southeast of Bermuda,
the wind field is expected to grow, with tropical-storm-force winds
forecast to spread across the island beginning Thursday afternoon
and continuing through Friday morning. The Bermuda Weather Service 
has also issued a Hurricane Watch for the island. 

2.  Swells generated by Earl are expected to reach Bermuda by
tonight and the U.S. East Coast shortly thereafter.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions through the weekend.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/2100Z 26.5N  65.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 27.8N  65.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 29.7N  64.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 32.0N  62.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  09/1800Z 35.0N  59.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
 60H  10/0600Z 38.6N  55.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  10/1800Z 41.8N  50.6W   80 KT  90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  11/1800Z 45.0N  46.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  12/1800Z 47.0N  41.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin

 

[MaineJay]

convection still looks a fair bit unorganized just looking at visible.  No 85ghz microwave scans in a while to know for sure what eye structure exists.

[StretchCT]

Vortex message from mission 18.   Max inbound sfmr wind 82mph, outbound 86.  Max flight inbound was 110mph, max out 101mph. Eye was 50NM wide and open in the south. 

 

Spoiler

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 22:56Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Name: Earl
Storm Number & Year: 06 in 2022 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 18
Observation Number: 07

A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 22:23:07Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.74N 65.53W
B. Center Fix Location: 387 statute miles (623 km) to the S (187°) from Hamilton, Bermuda (U.K.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,850m (9,350ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 971mb (28.68 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 145° at 3kts (From the SE at 3mph)
F. Eye Character: Open in the south
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 50 nautical miles (58 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 71kts (81.7mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles) to the SSE (150°) of center fix at 22:15:26Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 238° at 96kts (From the WSW at 110.5mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 39 nautical miles (45 statute miles) to the SSE (151°) of center fix at 22:13:37Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 75kts (86.3mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles) to the NNW (330°) of center fix at 22:29:33Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 79° at 88kts (From between the ENE and E at 101.3mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles) to the NNW (330°) of center fix at 22:29:27Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,971m (9,747ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,116m (10,223ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 96kts (~ 110.5mph) which was observed 39 nautical miles (45 statute miles) to the SSE (151°) from the flight level center at 22:13:37Z

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Appears to be some rapid intensification in the past hour

Edit: not as long of a loop as I was hoping but you get the picture. Here's the link to see for yourself.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=ir

 

Edited September 8, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[StretchCT]

8:00 PM AST Wed Sep 7
Location: 26.8°N 65.5°W
Moving: N at 8 mph
Min pressure: 971 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph

[StretchCT]

Vortex message (ob 17) 87.5mph max sfmr wind, 123mph flight level wind. Eye is closed, 50nm diameter. mslp 970.

Spoiler

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 0:11Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Name: Earl
Storm Number & Year: 06 in 2022 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 18
Observation Number: 17

A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 23:40:01Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.86N 65.52W
B. Center Fix Location: 379 statute miles (609 km) to the S (187°) from Hamilton, Bermuda (U.K.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,845m (9,334ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 970mb (28.65 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 335° at 5kts (From the NNW at 6mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 50 nautical miles (58 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 74kts (85.2mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the W (266°) of center fix at 23:33:46Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 360° at 79kts (From the N at 90.9mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles) to the W (266°) of center fix at 23:33:16Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 76kts (87.5mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the E (87°) of center fix at 23:46:53Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 190° at 107kts (From the S at 123.1mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 31 nautical miles (36 statute miles) to the E (87°) of center fix at 23:47:19Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,008m (9,869ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,138m (10,295ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 107kts (~ 123.1mph) which was observed 31 nautical miles (36 statute miles) to the E (87°) from the flight level center at 23:47:19Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 18°C (64°F) which was observed 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the WSW (257°) from the flight level center

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

 

 

SEC MAX FL WIND 66 KT BRNG:271 deg RNG:65 nm

 

[StretchCT]

Vortex message (ob26) sfmr wind of 92mph with an eye open to the S and SE.  Same 123mph flight level wind. 

Spoiler

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 1:47Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Name: Earl
Storm Number & Year: 06 in 2022 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 18
Observation Number: 26

A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 0:52:38Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.99N 65.51W
B. Center Fix Location: 370 statute miles (595 km) to the S (187°) from Hamilton, Bermuda (U.K.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,845m (9,334ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 971mb (28.68 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Open from the south to the southeast
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 50 nautical miles (58 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 76kts (87.5mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the NNE (28°) of center fix at 0:45:19Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 122° at 91kts (From the ESE at 104.7mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles) to the NNE (28°) of center fix at 0:44:03Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 80kts (92.1mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the SW (230°) of center fix at 0:57:48Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 303° at 90kts (From the WNW at 103.6mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the SW (230°) of center fix at 0:57:46Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,950m (9,678ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,147m (10,325ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 107kts (~ 123.1mph) which was observed 31 nautical miles (36 statute miles) to the E (87°) from the flight level center at 23:47:19Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 17°C (63°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the NE/ENE (56°) from the flight level center

Figured I would throw some drops in here too. 

Drop 18 had a max wind of 127mph at 905mb. sfc wind of 96mph.

Spoiler

Drop 16 had a max wind of 125mph at 950mb and sfc wind of 98mph.  

Spoiler

 

Edited September 8, 2022 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 7
Location: 27.2°N 65.5°W
Moving: N at 9 mph
Min pressure: 970 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph

Disco in spoiler.  They don't use rapid intensification, but are calling for another 30mph increase in wind speed in the next 36 hours.  Since the 11am update, it's picked up 15mph of speed. Rapid intensification is defined by NOAA as 30kts in 24 hrs. 

Spoiler

Hurricane Earl Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062022
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 07 2022

Earl has resumed intensifying this evening.  A NOAA Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft reported a maximum flight-level wind of 107 kt (which 
reduces to an intensity of about 95 kt), and the central pressure 
has fallen to 970 mb.  Both SFMR and dropsonde data support surface 
winds of 80 kt.  Onboard radar has also confirmed a rather large eye 
of almost 60 miles (90 km) and a fairly symmetric wind field.  The 
initial intensity is increased to 85 kt as a blend of all available 
aircraft data, and considering the drop in pressure.

Aircraft center fixes confirm that Earl is still moving northward at 
about 8 kt.  This motion is expected to gradually turn 
north-northeastward and northeastward and accelerate as Earl moves 
between a mid-level ridge to the southeast, and a digging 
mid-latitude trough to the northwest in the next couple of days.  
The trough is forecast to capture Earl, however there is some 
uncertainty in the model guidance to the timing of this interaction 
resulting in a larger spread in the along-track positions beyond 72 
hours.  The official track forecast is very similar to the previous 
forecast and close to the model consensus aids.

The apparent decrease in deep-layer vertical wind shear has likely 
allowed Earl to strengthen.  Global model guidance suggests the 
shear will continue to abate over the next 36 hours and with 
atmospheric conditions remaining conducive, further intensification 
is expected. The NHC intensity forecast now shows a quicker rate of 
strengthening to a peak of 115 kt at 36 hours.  Earl is expected to 
undergo extra-tropical transition in a few days when it moves to 
higher latitudes and interacts with an upper-level trough.

KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Although Earl's center is forecast to pass southeast of Bermuda,
the wind field is expected to grow, with tropical-storm-force winds
forecast to spread across the island beginning late Thursday and 
continuing through Friday morning.  Hurricane-force winds are 
possible on Bermuda late Thursday or Thursday night if Earl's track 
shifts farther west than is currently forecast.

2.  Swells generated by Earl are expected to reach Bermuda by
tonight and the U.S. East Coast shortly thereafter.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions through the weekend.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 27.2N  65.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 28.6N  65.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 30.7N  63.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 33.3N  61.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 36.6N  57.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
 60H  10/1200Z 40.2N  53.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  11/0000Z 42.9N  49.1W   80 KT  90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  12/0000Z 45.0N  44.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  13/0000Z 46.4N  39.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 

 

[MaineJay]

Most recent microwave scan from about 217am eastern time. Shows the eyewall was open to the south.

Shortwave IR loop begins at about the same time the AMSR2 shot above.  Looks as though the eyewall gap may have since rotated to the eastern or even NE quadrant.

Hopefully this does track east, and far enough east, of Bermuda to spare it from the worst.

 

 

 

[StretchCT]

Still learning this tool. Seems like its from about 11z (7am edt)

 

[StretchCT]

Put some land in the satellite view for perspective  - not quite fully in the region yet

[StretchCT]

A look at Bermuda radar http://www.weather.bm/radar.asp

[StretchCT]

7:40 vort message not finding the winds stronger but down to 964 and a closed eye 48nm wide.

Spoiler

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 12:41Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Name: Earl
Storm Number & Year: 06 in 2022 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 20
Observation Number: 17

A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 11:49:45Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28.58N 65.32W
B. Center Fix Location: 259 statute miles (417 km) to the S (187°) from Hamilton, Bermuda (U.K.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,790m (9,154ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 964mb (28.47 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 145° at 18kts (From the SE at 21mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 48 nautical miles (55 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 66kts (76.0mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the W (267°) of center fix at 11:43:31Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 8° at 72kts (From the N at 82.9mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the W (268°) of center fix at 11:43:04Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 69kts (79.4mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the E (91°) of center fix at 11:58:31Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 178° at 93kts (From the S at 107.0mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles) to the E (90°) of center fix at 12:00:41Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,068m (10,066ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,065m (10,056ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Dropsonde with peak winds at 124mph at 910 mb

HDOB with pressure of 958.

[StretchCT]

Bermuda web cams

https://www.earthcam.com/world/bermuda/pembroke/?cam=bermuda. (commercials)

https://www.portbermudawebcam.com/

https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/bermuda/st-george-s-parish/st-george-s-parish/cahow.html

[StretchCT]

Dry air intrusion?

[Iceresistance]

57 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Dry air intrusion?

Yes, it's being filtered out by the convection (Or trying to be)

[StretchCT]

http://www.weather.bm/tools/graphics.asp?name=500KM PPI&user=

 

Edited September 8, 2022 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

The palms are visibly moving as are the other trees.  Boats starting to move a little too.  https://www.earthcam.com/world/bermuda/pembroke/?cam=bermuda

Waves are now crashing https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/bermuda/st-george-s-parish/st-george-s-parish/cahow.html

Dry air and a large eye seems to be holding this one back right now.  No improvement on ADT and other satellite estimates.  Pressure is 959 on the latest HDOB which is pretty flat with the last run.  Note mission 22 is not there yet.  But flight level winds have been down.

Highest drop wind on mission 21 so far is 108mph.  It's so ragged. Maybe if the eye starts shrinking the winds will respond. 

Edited September 8, 2022 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 8
Location: 30.3°N 64.4°W
Moving: NNE at 16 mph
Min pressure: 961 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph

Disco highlights: Dry air entrained, eye degraded, storm deepened but grew larger, winds lower than earlier, time for rapid intensification is running out.

Spoiler

Hurricane Earl Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062022
500 PM AST Thu Sep 08 2022

Earl's intensification trend from last night took an unexpected halt 
this morning, which was unusual given the reduction in vertical wind 
shear. While an SSMIS pass at 1056 UTC showed a closed mid-level 
eyewall, a more recent AMSR2 pass at 1717 UTC indicated that Earl 
likely entrained some dry air that degraded the mid-level eyewall 
structure, with a large cyclonic spiral opening to the west that 
matched conventional satellite imagery at the time. The Air Force 
Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft has been sampling the hurricane this 
afternoon, finding a minimum central pressure of 961 mb, but similar 
to this morning, only found 700 mb flight level winds of 93 kt 
(which reduces to 83 kt) and peak SFMR winds even lower at 64 kt. 
Given these lastest in-situ observations, the initial intensity is 
adjusted to 85 kt for this advisory. The aircraft observations, in 
combination with ASCAT data, also indicate that Earl wind field is 
growing larger, with 34-kt and 50-kt radii expanding in the 
southeastern quadrant. 

Earl is beginning to accelerate to the north-northeast, with 
aircraft fixes indicating an estimated motion of 030/13 kt. Further 
acceleration and a more northeastward turn is anticipated tonight 
and tomorrow as Earl is caught up in the southwesterly flow between 
a mid-level ridge to the east, and a digging mid-latitude trough to 
the northwest. The guidance this cycle is very tightly clustered 
upon the previous forecast track in over the next 24 hours, and very 
few changes were made during this period for the latest NHC track. 
On this path, Earl should make its closest approach about 75-100 n 
mi southeast of Bermuda at around 0600 UTC. The same trough 
mentioned above is then expected to capture Earl in 48-60 hours, 
resulting in substantial slowdown in Earl's motion as the two 
features phase together. This is the time period where the guidance 
continues to exhibit a lot of along-track spread, related to the 
degree of trough interaction, though the guidance this cycle has 
shifted towards a stronger phasing solution, likely resulting in a 
additional slowdown. The latest track forecast is not quite as slow 
or far east as the latest GFS or ECMWF solutions, so further 
adjustments may be needed if these trends continue.

Deep-layer (200-850 mb) vertical wind shear over Earl is now quite 
low, under 10 knots per the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS. However, the 
structural degradation in Earl's inner core today has thrown a 
monkey wrench in the anticipated intensification that was expected 
to occur today. In fact, while the pressure has still been slowly 
decreasing, it seems to have resulted in the wind field growing more 
than strengthening the maximum sustained winds. While it is likely 
that Earl will be able to mix out the earlier dry-air entrainment 
near the core, it has shortened the window of favorable conditions 
for intensification before the shear begins to rapidly increase 
again in 36 hours. Thus, the intensity forecast has been reduced a 
bit this cycle, now only showing a 105 kt peak in 24 hours, which is 
now under the HCCA and LGEM guidance and closer to the ICVN 
consensus aid. After 36 hours, increasing baroclinicity will lead to 
a rapid increase in vertical wind shear, and extratropical 
transition will likely be underway (likely a warm-seclusion-type 
event), and be complete by 48 hours. The powerful extratropical low 
is then forecast to weaken steadily, in agreement with the intensity 
consensus aids.

KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Although Earl's center is forecast to pass southeast of Bermuda,
tropical-storm-force winds are expected on the island tonight into
tomorrow morning.  Hurricane-force winds are possible on Bermuda 
tonight if Earl's track shifts farther west than currently
forecast.

2.  Swells generated by Earl are building near Bermuda and are
expected to reach the U.S. East Coast tonight. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions
through the weekend.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 30.3N  64.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 32.1N  62.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 35.2N  59.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 39.2N  55.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 42.6N  51.8W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  11/0600Z 44.0N  50.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  11/1800Z 45.0N  49.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  12/1800Z 45.8N  47.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  13/1800Z 46.0N  41.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin

 

[StretchCT]

Goodnight Earl

[StretchCT]

You got some big eye Earl

Closer look

Edited September 9, 2022 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

FWIW - there are 100kt winds.