Cat 2 Hurricane Earl l Peak 105mph 954mb| post tropical

[StretchCT]

Goodnight Earl

[MaineJay]

Feel like there's better rotation in that convection.  Those white pixels are pretty cold.

[Iceresistance]

30 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Feel like there's better rotation in that convection.  Those white pixels are pretty cold.

Recon may have found near-hurricane force winds in the E to W pass that just barely missed the CoC.

[Iceresistance]

@StretchCTRecon has found possibly a rapidly strengthening Earl, Recon has found 990 MB Extrapolated.

[StretchCT]

Here's those recon hdobs

Dropsonde info so far.  The plane only reported one vortex message with 998 as the mslp. Clearly the drop is lower. 

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi

 

When looking closer at the 990 mslp on the hdob, the winds were awfully high.  So either its a really tight center or they missed the center. 

Edited September 6, 2022 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

One of the more "squiggly" flight patterns I've seen.

Finally got a vortex message in.  993 is the new low.

Spoiler

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 1:30Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Name: Earl
Storm Number & Year: 06 in 2022 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 11
Observation Number: 17

A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 0:44:03Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22.66N 65.18W
B. Center Fix Location: 300 statute miles (482 km) to the N (11°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 993mb (29.33 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 115° at 20kts (From the ESE at 23mph)
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 44kts (50.6mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the S (181°) of center fix at 0:40:50Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 246° at 58kts (From the WSW at 66.7mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles to the S (180°) of center fix at 0:42:54Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 52kts (59.8mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NE (36°) of center fix at 0:47:34Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 151° at 58kts (From the SSE at 66.7mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NNE (33°) of center fix at 0:46:55Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,359m (7,740ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,365m (7,759ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 60kts (~ 69.0mph) which was observed 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the SSE (158°) from the flight level center at 23:39:52Z

 

[StretchCT]

Earl is almost hurricane strength and is expected to be by hour 12. .  Plane's radar is picking up a developing eye and it's becoming more vertically aligned. Still a peak wind of 120mph predicted.

Spoiler

Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062022
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 05 2022

Earl's cloud pattern consists of a rather round area of very deep 
convection with a few ragged banding features over the eastern 
portion of the circulation.  Doppler wind data from a NOAA Hurricane 
Hunter aircraft investigating the tropical cyclone indicate that 
the intensity is now near 60 kt and the central pressure has fallen 
to around 991 mb.  Thus, Earl is very close to hurricane strength 
at this time.  Radar reflectivity images from the aircraft show an 
eye-like feature is developing.  The Doppler wind data from the 
aircraft also reveal that the vortex is becoming more vertically 
aligned than it had been.

During the next few days, the system will be moving through an 
area of diffluent anticyclonic upper-level flow, and the 
thermodynamic environment should be conducive for intensification.  
These factors, along with the current strengthening trend, argue 
for continued intensification despite the presence of significant 
southwesterly shear through 48 hours.  The official intensity 
forecast is close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus, HCCA, prediction 
and continues to call for Earl to eventually become a major 
hurricane.

Aircraft and satellite fixes indicate that Earl is moving northward 
near 6 kt.  The tropical cyclone should continue to move through a 
weakness in the subtropical ridge for the next 48 hours or so.  
Thereafter, a broad approaching trough in the southern stream 
of the mid-latitude westerlies should cause Earl to turn toward the 
north-northeast and then northeast, with some acceleration.  The 
official track forecast is just slightly to the left of the 
previous NHC track in the 2-3 day time frame and is close to the 
latest HCCA solution.

Earl's center is expected to pass to the southeast of Bermuda in
around 3-4 days. However, the size of the wind field of the 
tropical cyclone is expected to increase significantly, and 
interests on the island should continue to monitor the progress of 
the storm closely.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 22.9N  65.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 23.6N  65.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 24.7N  65.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 25.8N  65.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 27.3N  65.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  08/1200Z 29.0N  64.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 30.8N  63.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  10/0000Z 35.5N  58.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  11/0000Z 41.0N  53.0W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

 

[Iceresistance]

Earl has degraded a little bit, down to 65 mph and 998 MB.

[StretchCT]

I liked the terminology used this morning.

Shear "obliterating" Earl

Spoiler

Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062022
500 AM AST Tue Sep 06 2022

The deep convective blow-up that occurred last evening and led to 
Earl strengthening just shy of hurricane strength was quickly 
obliterated by strong shear around the issuance of the previous 
advisory.  In fact, after measuring a pressure as low as 991 mb 
early in their flight, the NOAA Hurricane Hunters reported that the 
central pressure had risen to near 998 mb based on the final 
dropsonde released near the center.  Some deep convection continues 
near and to the northeast of the estimated center, but based on the 
degraded structure from earlier, the intensity is estimated to be 55 
kt.  This value agrees with the latest Dvorak Data-T numbers from 
TAFB and SAB.

The remnant cirrus shield is obscuring the low-level center, so the 
initial position is based on interpolation from the previous 
forecast.  Earl is moving just west of due north, or 350/6 kt, and 
it should continue a slow northward path through a break in the 
subtropical ridge during the next 36 hours.  After that time, a 
deep-layer trough sliding off the U.S. east coast is expected to 
impart a faster north-northeastward and then northeastward motion 
into the upcoming weekend.  The updated NHC track forecast lies very 
close to the previous official prediction during the first 3 days, 
situated among the various multi-model consensus aids.  On days 4 
and 5, however, the new forecast is faster and to the east of the 
previous one, following the trend noted in most of the models.

UW-CIMSS and SHIPS analyses indicate that deep-layer shear over 
Earl is from the west-southwest at 30-35 kt.  Although the 
thermodynamic environment is plenty favorable for intensification, 
continued moderate to strong shear could put the breaks on 
significant strengthening until Earl turns and moves in the same 
direction as the shear vector, which should be in 2-3 days.  At 
about the same time, Earl could also benefit from a positive 
interaction with a mid- to upper-level trough located over the 
western Atlantic.  While the intensity forecast is highly 
uncertain, Earl is still expected to become a hurricane during the 
next couple of days, and possibly reach major hurricane strength in 
3-4 days.

Earl's center is expected to pass to the southeast of Bermuda in
about 3 days.  However, the size of the wind field of the tropical 
cyclone is expected to increase significantly, and interests on the 
island should continue to monitor the progress of the storm closely.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0900Z 23.4N  65.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 24.1N  65.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 25.0N  65.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 26.2N  65.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  08/0600Z 27.8N  65.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  08/1800Z 29.6N  64.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  09/0600Z 31.6N  62.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  10/0600Z 37.2N  55.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  11/0600Z 42.8N  47.9W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
 

 

[StretchCT]

Earl getting ready to fight shear

[StretchCT]

Current shear unfavorable through hr 24

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=06L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0&llval=OFF

 

Center not terribly displaced but can see SW shear.  Center still not exposed. 

 

[Burr]

For fishes and posterity 

 

[1816]

1 hour ago, Burr said:

For fishes and posterity 

 

The grand banks in <checks notes> September? is no freaking joke

[StretchCT]

5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 6
Location: 24.1°N 65.8°W
Moving: NNW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 994 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

TS Storm watch up for Bermuda.

Disco highlights: Convection increased after recon left, so they bumped it up.   Recon had a 63kt sfmr wind too.  An AMSR2 pass (maybe @MaineJay can provide) showed better structure though the mid level circulation remained displaced. Shear is expected for next day, then it's off to the races.  Latest peak forecast is 125mph winds. 

Spoiler

Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062022
500 PM AST Tue Sep 06 2022

Earl has become somewhat better organized this afternoon. After the 
previous reconnaissance mission concluded, deep convection increased 
closer to the low-level circulation, with evidence of deep 
convection rotating more up-shear on convectional satellite imagery. 
An AMSR2 microwave pass at 1728 UTC also showed this improved 
structure, with a formative inner core with at least 50 percent 
convective coverage, though it was still evident that the mid-level 
center remains displaced to the northeast. This afternoon's Air 
Force Reserve Reconnaissance mission confirmed Earl has strengthened 
from this morning, with peak 850 mb flight level winds of 72 kt and 
SFMR at 63 kt. The second pass through also had a minimum pressure 
of 991 mb. These values support increasing the initial intensity to 
60 kt this advisory.

Aircraft fixes indicate that Earl has resumed a northward motion, 
with the latest estimate at 355/6 kt. There is not much change in 
the track reasoning this cycle, as the mid-level ridge over Earl is 
expected to break down further and a positively-tilted deep-layer 
trough moves offshore of the eastern United States. This trough is 
expected to capture the tropical cyclone, helping Earl to recurve to 
the northeast with a faster forward motion after 36 hours. The track 
guidance did shift a bit to the west this cycle and the latest NHC 
track forecast is also bit west of the previous cycle, closest to 
the HCCA consensus aid, which remains slightly east of the latest 
GFS Forecast.

Earl seems to be effectively battling some rather hostile westerly 
deep-layer (200-850 mb) vertical wind shear, estimated at 25-30 kt 
in the GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS. Earl's resiliency is possibly 
related to the shear under this deep-layer being lower in magnitude 
and Earl's vortex column not extending all the way to 200 mb. Given 
the improvement in structure today, the latest intensity forecast 
now shows some slow intensification despite the shear in the next 
12-24 hours. After this period, the shear is forecast to rapidly 
decrease to under 10 kt by 48 hours, as the cyclone continues to 
traverse anomalously warm 29-30 C sea-surface temperatures. The 
majority of the models respond to this favorable environment by 
showing significant deepening. The latest NHC intensity forecast is 
a bit higher than the prior one, now showing a peak of 110 kt in 72 
hours, similar to the latest HCCA guidance. Thereafter, Earl will 
likely begin the process of extratropical transition as it interacts 
with a mid-latitude trough, with this transition likely to complete 
sometime between the 4-5 day time frame when all deep convection is 
stripped away.

Earl's center is expected to pass to the southeast of Bermuda in
48-60 hours. However, the size of the wind field of the tropical
cyclone is expected to increase significantly, and the Bermuda
Weather Service has issued a tropical storm watch for the Island of
Bermuda.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 24.1N  65.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 25.0N  65.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 26.3N  65.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 27.9N  65.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 29.9N  64.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  09/0600Z 31.9N  62.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 35.0N  59.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  10/1800Z 42.0N  50.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  11/1800Z 45.0N  41.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin
 

 

Edited September 6, 2022 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

You can catch it trying to rebuild on MIMIC.  Though I wish you could stop frames, slow down, or at least pause before it reruns.

[Iceresistance]

Recon has found 982 MB Extrapolated and hurricane force winds (75-80 mph)

[Iceresistance]

@StretchCTEarl is now officially the 2nd Hurricane of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season

 

80 mph and 985 MB

Edited September 7, 2022 by Iceresistance
Typo

[MaineJay]

13 hours ago, StretchCT said:

5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 6
Location: 24.1°N 65.8°W
Moving: NNW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 994 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

TS Storm watch up for Bermuda.

Disco highlights: Convection increased after recon left, so they bumped it up.   Recon had a 63kt sfmr wind too.  An AMSR2 pass (maybe @MaineJay can provide) showed better structure though the mid level circulation remained displaced. Shear is expected for next day, then it's off to the races.  Latest peak forecast is 125mph winds. 

  Reveal hidden contents

Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062022
500 PM AST Tue Sep 06 2022

Earl has become somewhat better organized this afternoon. After the 
previous reconnaissance mission concluded, deep convection increased 
closer to the low-level circulation, with evidence of deep 
convection rotating more up-shear on convectional satellite imagery. 
An AMSR2 microwave pass at 1728 UTC also showed this improved 
structure, with a formative inner core with at least 50 percent 
convective coverage, though it was still evident that the mid-level 
center remains displaced to the northeast. This afternoon's Air 
Force Reserve Reconnaissance mission confirmed Earl has strengthened 
from this morning, with peak 850 mb flight level winds of 72 kt and 
SFMR at 63 kt. The second pass through also had a minimum pressure 
of 991 mb. These values support increasing the initial intensity to 
60 kt this advisory.

Aircraft fixes indicate that Earl has resumed a northward motion, 
with the latest estimate at 355/6 kt. There is not much change in 
the track reasoning this cycle, as the mid-level ridge over Earl is 
expected to break down further and a positively-tilted deep-layer 
trough moves offshore of the eastern United States. This trough is 
expected to capture the tropical cyclone, helping Earl to recurve to 
the northeast with a faster forward motion after 36 hours. The track 
guidance did shift a bit to the west this cycle and the latest NHC 
track forecast is also bit west of the previous cycle, closest to 
the HCCA consensus aid, which remains slightly east of the latest 
GFS Forecast.

Earl seems to be effectively battling some rather hostile westerly 
deep-layer (200-850 mb) vertical wind shear, estimated at 25-30 kt 
in the GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS. Earl's resiliency is possibly 
related to the shear under this deep-layer being lower in magnitude 
and Earl's vortex column not extending all the way to 200 mb. Given 
the improvement in structure today, the latest intensity forecast 
now shows some slow intensification despite the shear in the next 
12-24 hours. After this period, the shear is forecast to rapidly 
decrease to under 10 kt by 48 hours, as the cyclone continues to 
traverse anomalously warm 29-30 C sea-surface temperatures. The 
majority of the models respond to this favorable environment by 
showing significant deepening. The latest NHC intensity forecast is 
a bit higher than the prior one, now showing a peak of 110 kt in 72 
hours, similar to the latest HCCA guidance. Thereafter, Earl will 
likely begin the process of extratropical transition as it interacts 
with a mid-latitude trough, with this transition likely to complete 
sometime between the 4-5 day time frame when all deep convection is 
stripped away.

Earl's center is expected to pass to the southeast of Bermuda in
48-60 hours. However, the size of the wind field of the tropical
cyclone is expected to increase significantly, and the Bermuda
Weather Service has issued a tropical storm watch for the Island of
Bermuda.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 24.1N  65.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 25.0N  65.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 26.3N  65.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 27.9N  65.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 29.9N  64.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  09/0600Z 31.9N  62.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 35.0N  59.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  10/1800Z 42.0N  50.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  11/1800Z 45.0N  41.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin
 

 

Sorry for the delay, I had a hell of a time tracking down the site because my bookmark didn't work anymore.

This one works.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

Here's that AMSR2 scan.

It showed a bit of a connective ring, but not complete.

12 hours ago, StretchCT said:

You can catch it trying to rebuild on MIMIC.  Though I wish you could stop frames, slow down, or at least pause before it reruns.

A more recent SSMIS scan shows half an eyewall. Once MIMIC incorporates this scan, it'll likely show some degradation on the southern half 

Looks like we are down to 3-4 aging satellites for microwave scans. These are all past their lifespan, and I know of no plans to replace them.  I do know some microwave scanning satellites were aboard a failed launch from ASTRA recently, and they never made it into orbit.

 

[StretchCT]

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

80 mph and 985 MB

9mb in 3 hours is pretty rapid.  Might stay up to 11 to see if that continues or if it just stepped up due to an observation

 

[StretchCT]

Still 985mb 80 mph at 11pm

[MaineJay]

Latest scan is only 20 minutes old. Shows an open eyewall to the south, but pretty strong in the north side.

[StretchCT]

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 65.8W
ABOUT 485 MI...775 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES

Still forecast to peak at 125mph, becoming major in 36-48 hrs as shear should ease during the day.

Spoiler

Hurricane Earl Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062022
500 AM AST Wed Sep 07 2022

Strong westerly shear (analyzed to be around 30 kt) continues to
affect Earl, with the hurricane exhibiting an asymmetric convective
structure in infrared satellite imagery.  A recent Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported that the central pressure has
fallen to 981 mb, however there's been no apparent change in the
maximum winds and the eyewall is open to the south and southeast.  
The plane measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 78 kt and SFMR
winds as high as 71 kt; therefore the maximum sustained winds are
still estimated to be 70 kt.

Earl has been moving slowly just west of due north, or 355/5 kt, 
while sandwiched between a mid-level ridge over the central 
Atlantic and high pressure over Florida.  A trough over the eastern 
United States is expected to move offshore during the next couple 
of days, causing Earl to turn northeastward and accelerate through 
day 3.  The track guidance is tightly clustered during the first 3 
days of the forecast, although many of the models have trended a 
little slower during the northeastward turn.  No cross-track 
adjustments to the NHC forecast were needed during that period.  
There has been a marked shift and increase in spread among the 
track models on days 4 and 5, however, with the GFS, ECMWF, and 
COAMPS-TC showing Earl merging with a deep-layer low and turning 
northward or northwestward toward Newfoundland as an extratropical 
low.  For now, the updated NHC forecast shows Earl slowing down 
considerably to the southeast of Newfoundland on days 4 and 5.

GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance show the strong shear currently 
affecting Earl decreasing to moderate levels in about 12 hours, and 
even to low levels in about 36 hours.  Combined with very warm 
waters and a possible positive trough interaction during the next 
24 hours, Earl is forecast to strengthen and is likely to become a 
major hurricane in the next 36 to 48 hours while passing to the 
southeast of Bermuda.  Weakening is expected to begin after day 3 
due to colder waters and another increase in shear, and Earl is 
forecast to become extratropical by day 4 while it interacts with 
the aforementioned deep-layer low to the southeast of Atlantic 
Canada.

KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Although Earl's center is forecast to pass southeast of Bermuda,
the wind field is expected to grow, with tropical-storm-force winds
forecast to spread across the island beginning Thursday afternoon 
and continuing through Friday morning.

2.  Swells generated by Earl are expected to reach Bermuda by
tonight.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and 
rip current conditions through Friday.  Please consult products from 
your local weather office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0900Z 25.3N  65.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 26.4N  65.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 27.9N  65.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  08/1800Z 29.7N  64.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  09/0600Z 31.8N  63.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 60H  09/1800Z 34.5N  60.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  10/0600Z 37.9N  55.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  11/0600Z 43.6N  48.3W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  12/0600Z 45.3N  46.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

 

 

 

Edited September 7, 2022 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

Interesting to see the convection now on the west side

Trying to see if an eye is forming.  Sometimes it's deceiving.

 

[Iceresistance]

Peak forecast now expected to be at 130 mph

[StretchCT]

Flight level winds (10,000 feet) of 100mph now.

Those winds have been there at mostly the under 900mb elevation on the dropsondes. 

Example is this latest sonde (ignore the surface reading) and the one below it.  The highest level with winds around 100mph was 901mb

Edited September 7, 2022 by StretchCT