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August 19-?, 2022 | Severe Weather


ClicheVortex2014

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There's usually a decent threat of a nice wind storm to take place around late October into November that can shake things up a bit. Sometimes they bust, but it seems as of late there's been a few severe events in the Midwest/Plains. Don't know the ramifications of a third Nina fall though...that's for another thread.  

On another note, today I could see the slight haze of the smoke in the horizon during sunset tonight. 

Edited by NWOhioChaser
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This isn't really severe weather, but I'll put it here. Yesterday and today, there has been high-altitude forest fire smoke over the region. I noticed it pretty easily, and I've been sort of expecting this to come across the country. This year, Pivotalweather has had the HRRR smoke particle forecast, so it's just a bit easier to track it. The sky is white-ish and the sunset was just a bit weird, nothing too much in the realm of reddish.  Unfortunately I've had lots more experience with forest fire smoke in Colorado than I ever wanted to. It sucks when surface air quality is rated as unhealthy.

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  • Meteorologist

Watch likely

image.png.a72f3e13d0c1ec9423a8d1585b9beb20.png

 Mesoscale Discussion 1792
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0511 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022

   Areas affected...much of northeast Kansas into parts of the mid
   Missouri Valley

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 172211Z - 180215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms should develop from southeast Nebraska into
   east-central and northeast Kansas with large hail and brief tornado
   risk. With time, damaging winds should become the primary concern as
   storms develop into northwest Missouri this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Visible imagery and surface observations indicate an
   uncapped and unstable air mass near a surface trough extending from
   the TX Panhandle across central KS and into eastern NE. Meanwhile,
   an outflow boundary stretches from northern MO into western IA,
   where air mass modification is underway.

   Storms are expected to develop between 23-00Z along the surface
   trough into northeast KS and southeast NE, aided by the increasing
   low-level jet. Modest mid and upper flow atop increasing low-level
   southwesterlies will favor both supercells initially and an MCS
   later this evening. Steep lapse rates with cool midlevel
   temperatures will also favor damaging hail with the initial cellular
   activity, and a brief tornado may occur near the old outflow
   boundary as well, prior to storms merging this evening.

 

Conditions are *very* favorable for supercells. We'll see how long the time window is for that before they become non-discrete. LCL is a little on the high side except for NW MO... for now. With the sun setting and the nocturnal LLJ kicking in, I'd imagine the LCL will lower a bit.

 

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