greenbobby13 Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 New cells popping over and around greensburg Indiana. Looks like the one is taking a more easterly track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 2, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted August 2, 2022 Storms weren't as widespread as HRRR thought. Especially in SE IN/SW OH. Conditions remain favorable for supercells and tornadoes but there are no definitive signs of strong storm development, and we're well past peak daytime heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 (edited) I wasn't expecting much in my neck of the woods this evening, but there are at least three supercells that I see that have at least some weak rotation. Edited August 2, 2022 by Neoncyclone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 19 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Storms weren't as widespread as HRRR thought. Especially in SE IN/SW OH. Conditions remain favorable for supercells and tornadoes but there are no definitive signs of strong storm development, and we're well past peak daytime heating. That late morning cluster did us in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 (edited) Flood threat is getting serious in Illinois Edited August 2, 2022 by StormfanaticInd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 11 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Flood threat is getting serious in Illinois Not gonna lie, the scanner has been incredibly quiet for a potential flash-flooding event, but it looks like the rain is just going to keep training on my county, getting pretty worried about it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 (edited) Pretty impressive supercell in SE Illinois Edited August 2, 2022 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 0z HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 2, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted August 2, 2022 Tall/skinny cape at ILN. Weaker instability than I expected but there's no cap, so that's not the reason why storms failed to develop. With 50 knots at 800mb and between 300mb-200mb, we're lucky a little more instability didn't verify. Ultimately, I think subsidence related to the MCV and/or convection to the south and southwest kept storms from developing. But this wind profile is dangerous for August. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 (edited) I don't like the look of this.. Stronger inbounds and outbound starting to show... EDIT: Luckily per mesoanalysis these storms probably aren't surface-based Edited August 2, 2022 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 Reed Timmer posted this on FB from a Twitter post of the tornado on the OH/WV border. https://twitter.com/jbaker_wtov/status/1554274019624591360?s=21&t=ZZHpCwlGjUO4sTmQttELrA&fbclid=IwAR3hn1E_bxdCQSB3ysvaZlBDreFBkPt1DArAW6m0A6Oef1uuV7YdBFsmmgI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 2, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted August 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Reed Timmer posted this on FB from a Twitter post of the tornado on the OH/WV border. https://twitter.com/jbaker_wtov/status/1554274019624591360?s=21&t=ZZHpCwlGjUO4sTmQttELrA&fbclid=IwAR3hn1E_bxdCQSB3ysvaZlBDreFBkPt1DArAW6m0A6Oef1uuV7YdBFsmmgI Maybe my hot take will come true after all. Not in the area I expected a strong tornado, but to be fair, I didn't specify where it would happen. 😅 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 2, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted August 2, 2022 SE IL/SW IN/W KY has been getting nailed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 2, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted August 2, 2022 Not only was this event focused much further west than expected, it's lasting longer than expected. Thankfully the flash flooding potential of the event hasn't verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 2, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted August 2, 2022 (edited) 16 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Tall/skinny cape at ILN. Weaker instability than I expected but there's no cap, so that's not the reason why storms failed to develop. With 50 knots at 800mb and between 300mb-200mb, we're lucky a little more instability didn't verify. Ultimately, I think subsidence related to the MCV and/or convection to the south and southwest kept storms from developing. But this wind profile is dangerous for August. Edited August 2, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 this looks like a lot of flash flooding and thunder for 1352z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 On 7/31/2022 at 3:57 PM, snowlover2 said: 18z HRRR is pretty crazy. Highest total i came across just west of Dayton is 9.54" which falls in less than 5 hours! 5" to 9" from training storms has happened near Olney Illinois. So I guess the HRRR did pick up on possible flash flood/training, just not the right area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 2, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted August 2, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 The amount of training events in the last month is unsettling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 2, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted August 2, 2022 That's one hell of a windshield 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 (edited) 18 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Not only was this event focused much further west than expected, it's lasting longer than expected. Thankfully the flash flooding potential of the event hasn't verified. There was some serious flooding last night just to the northwest of me where up to 10 inches fell, pretty narrow swath though, and the flooding has been mostly rural Edited August 2, 2022 by Neoncyclone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted August 2, 2022 Moderators Share Posted August 2, 2022 (edited) 3.5" here today with another 1-3" likely tomorrow night Edited August 2, 2022 by Central Illinois Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted August 2, 2022 Share Posted August 2, 2022 Anybody want some of this heat along with a 77 dew point and dead calm? No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 3, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted August 3, 2022 Conditions are favorable ahead of a possibly developing MCS in SD. Only a marginal risk so it'll be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 3, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted August 3, 2022 (edited) A watch being issued in a marginal risk is a good sign that there'll be an upgrade to slight risk Edited August 3, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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