Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 1, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted August 1, 2022 (edited) 60% chance of a watch. I'm just barely east of the boundary but I'm not expecting much locally. But I'm expecting a nice looking supercell or two to our southwest. My hot take for today is there'll be a strong tornado. Largely storm mode dependent but parameters should be there. Mesoscale Discussion 1625 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Mon Aug 01 2022 Areas affected...Southern IL...Southern IN...Southern OH...Northern KY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 012007Z - 012200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...An increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity is anticipated this afternoon and evening across the OH Valley. Trends are being monitored for potential watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Recent surface observations and visible satellite imagery place an outflow boundary from central IL eastward across central IN and into southern OH. Air mass in the vicinity and south of this boundary continues to destabilize, with little to no convective inhibition remaining per the latest mesoanalysis. Warm and moist surface conditions, coupled with relatively cool mid-level temperatures, are supporting moderate to strong buoyancy across the region. The strongest instability is across southern IL, where temperatures have reached the upper 80s/low 90s amid mid 70s dewpoints. Current mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE is over 3500 J/kg across all of southern IL. Instability gradually decreases with eastern extent, coincident with decreasing temperatures and dewpoints. Even so, MLCAPE is still estimated to be around 1500-2000 J/kg across southern OH. Moderate vertical shear also exists across this region, with effective bulk shear ranging from 35 kt over southern IL to 45 kt over southern OH. Thunderstorm development is anticipated within this environment along the outflow boundary this afternoon and evening. Modest convergence along the boundary and remnant convective inhibition has limited convective initiation thus far. However, convective inhibition has eroded and a modest increase in ascent associated with the approaching shortwave trough should lead to an increase in thunderstorm development. Given the environment, any storms that do develop will likely be strong to severe, with damaging downburst winds as the primary threat. Any supercells that develop could also product hail and maybe even a brief tornado. I mean, look at these hodographs (I apologize for the unintentional Nickelback reference. I am not a war criminal) Edited August 1, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenbobby13 Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 19z HRRR has a nasty looking supercell passing over Cincinnati around 9pm with a significant tornado parameter of 5.6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 1, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted August 1, 2022 I was expecting myself to not be in a watch but leaving Cincinnati out surprises me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 1, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted August 1, 2022 Solid meso in SE IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 (edited) Watch just issued for southern OH/N KY. Edited August 1, 2022 by snowlover2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 1, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted August 1, 2022 Mini tornadic supercell in E OH. Forced/enhanced by the MCV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 1, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted August 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Watch just issued for southern OH/N KY. There it is. Weird they broke the watch in two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 Well this could go either way for me northern fringe of the watch so let’s see what happens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 1, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted August 1, 2022 (edited) Good thing the Reds game is gonna be in Miami. This way they can lose on the day they're supposed to play. Edited August 1, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 1, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted August 1, 2022 That supercell in SE IL absolutely exploded. 35 knots effective shear/6000 sbcape will do that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenbobby13 Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 Cv, do you think the cells that have formed just to the northwest of Cincy are going limit the second round and or stabilize the atmosphere at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenbobby13 Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 Broad rotation on the Southwestern portion of the Vincennes storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 1, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted August 1, 2022 (edited) 23 minutes ago, greenbobby13 said: Cv, do you think the cells that have formed just to the northwest of Cincy are going limit the second round and or stabilize the atmosphere at all? 8 minutes ago, greenbobby13 said: Broad rotation on the Southwestern portion of the Vincennes storm Sorry about the late response but I think this answers the question. Tornadic supercell west of Cincy. But, yeah, any cell that can stay discrete will have a severe/tornado threat at least until they form a line. Embedded supercells will remain a threat even then. Edited August 1, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 1, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted August 1, 2022 Nasty rotation with a supercell in WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 1, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted August 1, 2022 Tornadic supercell viewed from TCVG. Looking 600 feet above ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 1 hour ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Good thing the Reds game is gonna be in Miami. This way they can lose on the day they're supposed to play. Hey man chill 😂😂😂 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Tornadic supercell viewed from TCVG. Looking 600 feet above ground Ok I’m paying attention. Came here after getting on the wcpo website to look at Bengals stadium updates and saw there was a tornado warning to my west 😅😅. Guess I’ll turn the anime off and pay attention to the sky 😂😂 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenbobby13 Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Tornadic supercell viewed from TCVG. Looking 600 feet above ground from ILN it doesn’t look impressive. Is surprising how it’s so different between the two 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 WCPO just showed live camera footage from Perfect North and shows a rotating wall cloud but no funnel or anything touching the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 Funny that this storm might dive just to the south of me 😂😂. Also they’ve issued a Flood Watch for I think the same areas as the Severe Thunderstorm Watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 1, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted August 1, 2022 (edited) 12 minutes ago, greenbobby13 said: from ILN it doesn’t look impressive. Is surprising how it’s so different between the two Yep. TCVG was looking at the supercell at 600 feet... KILN was looking at it from 4200 feet. Airport radars do a great thing for their needs, but they're also amazing for NWS needs. Tornado warning expired but it's definitely still supercellular via TCVG. At least for now. Edited August 1, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 1, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted August 1, 2022 Storms just popped in NW OH. Latest HRRR shows redevelopment further north of the first round of development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 Quote Mesoscale Discussion 1627 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0551 PM CDT Mon Aug 01 2022 Areas affected...Middle Ohio River Valley Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 508...509... Valid 012251Z - 020045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 508, 509 continues. SUMMARY...The potential for severe wind/hail, and perhaps a brief/weak tornado continues for the middle OH River Valley. A more isolated risk of severe wind/hail may persist across parts of the upper OH River Valley into the central Appalachians. DISCUSSION...Convection continues to intensify along a stationary boundary along the middle OH River Valley. A more robust supercell cluster across southeast IL has produced several instances of severe hail over the past hour, including a 2-inch hail report. This cell/cluster has begun to take on more outflow-dominant characteristics (base on KVWS imagery), and may see an increasing severe wind potential over the next 1-2 hours across the IL/KY/IN tri-state region. To the east into southern IN/OH, shallower supercells continue to intensify with increasing lightning counts and cooling cloud-top temperatures. Modest ambient low-level helicity along the boundary has allowed for these cells to quickly take on some supercell characteristics with mid-level rotation. Latest environmental estimates continue to show this region has the highest tornado potential with ESRH estimates near 150-200 m2/s2. However, deep layer flow and storm motions along the boundary will likely favor a gradual increase in storm interactions that will act to limit the tornado potential (though a hail/wind threat will likely persist). Across WV into PA, an elongated cluster of thunderstorms has maintained intensity despite moving into a more limited thermodynamic environment. This is likely due to favorable deep-layer shear (near 40 knots) that is compensating for the meager instability. A gradual weakening trend is likely with this activity heading into the late evening hours, but a localized severe wind/hail risk main persist for the next hour or so. ..Moore.. 08/01/2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 1, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted August 1, 2022 (edited) Still have broad rotation south of Pittsburgh with a possible small tornadic rotation. Never count out the MCV. Edited August 1, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 1, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted August 1, 2022 (edited) Confirmed tornado south of Pittsburgh. Moderately strong rotation. No debris signature yet but definitely a BWER. A BWER isn't enough to confirm a tornado but it does indicate a strong mesocyclone. Edited August 1, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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