Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 25, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 25, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 (edited) Looks like flash flooding will be an issue again tomorrow for the same people affected last night. Possibly 8+ hours of continuous rain Edited July 25, 2022 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 26, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 26, 2022 (edited) This has been an insane summer and we're not done. Very high confidence in AA warmth/dryness in the 8-14 day range. We're about to have a three-peat La Nina winter. It's only happened 2 other times since 1950: 1973-75, 2010-12, and soon-to-be 2020-22. With respect to severe weather, this is the first three-peat Nina that didn't have a Super Outbreak. The two outbreaks of December 2021 were certainly historic, arguably regardless of the time of year, but not to the magnitude of 1974 or 2011. That said, Spring of 2023 will still fall under the umbrella of the three-peat La Nina, so we're not out of the woods in that regard. Who knows. It's interesting how it took at least 23 years (from when reliable records started) to get the first three-peat... then almost 40 years between the first three-peat and the second, then a little less than 10 years between the second and third. Might be an impact of climate change. Too early to tell for sure. Edit: I wanna add, too, that we think/thought that the 2015-16 Super Nino was possibly attributed to climate change. This three-peat Nina doesn't necessarily negate this possibility; climate change could be making extreme ENSO events more likely. Edited July 26, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 26, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 26, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: This has been an insane summer and we're not done. Very high confidence in AA warmth/dryness in the 8-14 day range. We're about to have a three-peat La Nina winter. It's only happened 2 other times since 1950: 1973-75, 2010-12, and soon-to-be 2020-22. With respect to severe weather, this is the first three-peat Nina that didn't have a Super Outbreak. The two outbreaks of December 2021 were certainly historic, arguably regardless of the time of year, but not to the magnitude of 1974 or 2011. That said, Spring of 2023 will still fall under the umbrella of the three-peat La Nina, so we're not out of the woods in that regard. Who knows. It's interesting how it took at least 23 years (from when reliable records started) to get the first three-peat... then almost 40 years between the first three-peat and the second, then a little less than 10 years between the second and third. Might be an impact of climate change. Too early to tell for sure. Edit: I wanna add, too, that we think/thought that the 2015-16 Super Nino was possibly attributed to climate change. This three-peat Nina doesn't necessarily negate this possibility; climate change could be making extreme ENSO events more likely. I was corrected that 2010-12 was not a 3peat Nina. 1998-2000 was the latest 3peat. So the latest 3peats have been more spread out than I mistakenly believed. But the idea that ENSO has become more extreme since ~1980 is still valid. Edited July 26, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted July 26, 2022 Share Posted July 26, 2022 3 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: I was corrected that 2010-12 was not a 3peat Nina. 1998-2000 was the latest 3peat. So the latest 3peats have been more spread out than I mistakenly believed. But the idea that ENSO has become more extreme since ~1980 is still valid. This is why I respect you. Im sure nobody would have known whether you were right or wrong but you still made sure to fact check and correct your self. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted July 26, 2022 Share Posted July 26, 2022 Going to be raining for the next 10+ hours in this corridor according to the HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted July 26, 2022 Share Posted July 26, 2022 STL breaking rainfall records this morning, flash flood emergency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 26, 2022 Share Posted July 26, 2022 The flooding situation is starting to become catastrophic 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 26, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 26, 2022 6 hours ago, Snow____ said: This is why I respect you. Im sure nobody would have known whether you were right or wrong but you still made sure to fact check and correct your self. I appreciate it but in all fairness, it was pointed out to me rather than me actually going back to look at the data. I went off memory and my memory failed me — STL is having a morning indeed 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 26, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 26, 2022 (edited) ughhhhhhh 600dm ridge centered over the OV on day 9. Yikes. Hope that changes. Edited July 27, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 pop-up high plains magic at 6:38 eastern/ 4:38 mountain (Pueblo radar) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 0z HRRR showing some action here and there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 27, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 27, 2022 STL area expected to get 1-2 more inches in the next week. And if the 597-600dm ridge verifies, evapotranspiration is gonna make existing miserable. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 2 hours ago, snowlover2 said: 0z HRRR showing some action here and there. Looks cool. Was expecting a bit more with FFW for today and I’ve been waiting for some storms to pop all night since I’ve gotten home but it doesn’t look like anything until morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 Loving what’s happening right now. Makes me want to crawl back in the bed. Gotta be at work in an hour and a half though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 27, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 27, 2022 Significant hail possible in the high plains today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 27, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 27, 2022 (edited) SPC says high-based storms in the high plains. Should be some photogenic storms. 60% chance for watch Edited July 27, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 Some line of storms just to my north. Baby supercell wanna bees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 Pouring torrential buckets here! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 Almost can't see anything outside right now because it's so heavy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 Really coming down. Winds are quite nice too, even saw a brief change in direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michelle Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 It's almost to my house.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 27, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 27, 2022 Gonna miss me to my north. 😞 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 27, 2022 Share Posted July 27, 2022 Torrential rain here again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 27, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 27, 2022 Got some backbuilding west of Dayton. Might have a chance here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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