July 22-31, 2022 | Ring of Fire

[NWOhioChaser]

Don't feel confident about the storms tonight so not even going to try and stay up for them. 

Edited July 24, 2022 by NWOhioChaser

[snowlover2]

Nam has been showing a complex of heavy rain/storms moving along the OH River for Tuesday morning. 0z NAM showing more of an I-70 track with 3K NAM and FV3 looking to be in agreement.

[snowlover2]

Tornado warning near Beaver Dam WI.

[Chinook]

so, wind power -does- create carbon dioxide after all

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

30 minutes ago, Chinook said:

so, wind power -does- create carbon dioxide after all

 

Kills birds, causes cancer, and now co2? Dang. Might as well give up on alternates to fossil fuels

Edited July 24, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Tomorrow mornings sounding at ILN is way different from yesterday. Pathetic mid-level lapse rates, non-existent winds. That said, conditions will become more favorable in the afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates probably won't steepen much more, but stronger shear will move in and daytime heating will increase instability.

 

Compared to yesterdays 12z... steep mid-level lapse rates, seasonably strong deep-layer shear. 2800 elevated cape. This was 3-4 hours before the squall so heating likely destroyed most of that inversion.

Edited July 24, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

A new MCS is apparently developing just south of this afternoons MCS.

 

SPC expects it to dive southeast.

Since it should follow the instability gradient, southeastward movement makes sense. Should lead it on a track to possibly Indianapolis assuming it holds together. 

 

HRRR doesn't have this, but assuming the MCS dives southeast as expected, HRRR isn't handling this MCS well.

 

[snowlover2]

Enhanced area added on new day 1.

Quote

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1252 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2022  
  
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION  
INTO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT  
LAKES VICINITY INTO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON,  
ACCOMPANIED BY THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A COUPLE OF TORNADOES, IN  
ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
  
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN PROMINENT  
FROM THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN  
TIER OF THE U.S., WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING ALSO AMPLIFYING WITHIN THE  
WESTERLIES OFFSHORE OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST.  DOWNSTREAM OF  
THE BUILDING RIDGE, AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE  
FORECAST TO DIG TO THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN U.S.  
ROCKIES.  FARTHER EAST, MORE PROMINENT MID-LEVEL TROUGHING,  
INCLUDING A DEVELOPING LOW, APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO EVOLVE TO  
THE SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY, ACROSS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC AND ADJACENT  
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST.  
  
WITHIN THE EVOLVING LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME, MODELS  
INDICATE THAT A CONVECTIVELY GENERATED OR ENHANCED LOWER/MID  
TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK WILL PROPAGATE INTO AND ACROSS THE LOWER  
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING, TO  
THE SOUTH OF A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC.  A  
COLD FRONT TRAILING THE CYCLONE APPEARS LIKELY TO ADVANCE TO THE LEE  
OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY LATE THIS EVENING, AND THROUGH MUCH OF  
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS BY LATE  
TONIGHT.  
   
..OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND  
  
REMNANT CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER AND AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION MAY  
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY, INITIALLY INHIBITING  
OR SLOWING BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION.  HOWEVER, IN THE WAKE OF  
THIS ACTIVITY, AND GENERALLY ALIGNED WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY TO  
WESTERLY JET STREAK (PROBABLY INCLUDING 40-50+ KT SPEEDS IN THE  
850-700 MB LAYER), A CORRIDOR OF SUBSTANTIVE BOUNDARY-LAYER  
DESTABILIZATION SEEMS LIKELY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES VICINITY  
INTO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY, IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND  
INSOLATION.  THIS MAY INCLUDE MIXED-LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF  
1000-2000+ J/KG, WITH HIGHER VALUES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF THE  
FRONT INTO A WEAKENING FLOW REGIME ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY  
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  
  
IN RESPONSE TO THE DESTABILIZATION, AND FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF  
THE LARGER-SCALE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING, THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE  
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LAKE BREEZES, WHERE STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR  
AND SIZABLE, CLOCKWISE-CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS MAY BECOME  
CONDUCIVE TO ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE  
TORNADOES.  OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM CLOSER TO THE FRONT  
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO (AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY),  
WITH ACTIVITY AS WHOLE TENDING TO GROWING UPSCALE, WITH THE PRIMARY  
SEVERE HAZARD TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND  
GUSTS, BEFORE WEAKENING BY LATE EVENING WHILE SPREADING  
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD.  
   
..MONTANA INTO COLORADO ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS  
  
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES, MODELS  
INDICATE THAT MOISTENING EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR SURFACE FLOW  
AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AREAS OF MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER  
CAPE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AS LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES  
STEEPEN.  BENEATH MODEST WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW,  
PARTICULARLY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE DIGGING ACROSS PARTS OF THE  
NORTHERN ROCKIES, THIS MAY BECOME CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZING CONVECTION  
POSING AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WIND AND HAIL.  
  
..KERR/WEINMAN.. 07/24/2022

 

 

[NWOhioChaser]

Toledo is striking out on this pattern. 3 major misses in 36 hours. Storms missed me to the SW by like 20-30 miles yesterday morning, last night we were too far east and south. And morning storms to the west don't look they'll hold on much besides a garden shower. Not impressed IMBY. 

Edited July 24, 2022 by NWOhioChaser

[StormfanaticInd]

It seems like it just outright refuses to storm in Indy anymore. Still wait on the first good storm this year. Lol smh

[snowlover2]

So ILN just confirmed an EF1 tornado near Troy OH from yesterday morning. Really surprising since there never was a tornado warning.

Quote

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
330 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2022

...TORNADO CONFIRMED IN TROY IN MIAMI COUNTY OHIO...

Start Location...1 W Troy in Miami County OH
End Location.....1 SSE Troy in Miami County OH
Date...........................July 23, 2022
Estimated Start Time...........10:45 AM EDT
Estimated End Time.............10:48 AM EDT
Maximum EF-Scale Rating........EF1
Estimated Maximum Wind Speed...90 mph
Maximum Path Width.............200 yards
Path Length....................1.8 miles
Beginning Lat/Lon..............40.0421 / -84.2300
Ending Lat/Lon.................40.0282 / -84.2012
* Fatalities...0
* Injuries.....0

...Summary...
The National Weather Service in Wilmington Ohio has confirmed an
EF1 tornado in Troy, Ohio. This tornado occurred on Saturday,
July 23, 2022.

The first noted damage occurred near the intersection of Cheshire
Road and Dorset Road, where several large tree limbs were downed.
Damage became a little more concentrated near the intersection of
Armand Drive and McKaig Ave, with several large tree limbs and
even a few trees downed. Tree damage was also noted in an
apartment complex along Red Cedar Drive.

The most heavily concentrated area of damage occurred near Drury
Lane and Ridge Ave. Numerous very large, healthy trees were
downed, with one trunk snapped at its base, and several other very
large branches snapped not far off the ground. Some minor roof
damage was noted to a couple homes. On W Simpson Street just to
the east, a car was heavily damaged, apparently by a falling tree
limb.

The damage path became narrower near Terrace Place, Market Street,
and West Street. A bank sign was damaged, and several more large
trees and tree limbs were downed. In the neighborhood south of
West Street, a few more homes had minor roof damage, with a fairly
consistent area of tree damage observed as far southeast as
Walker Street and Dakota Street.

The damage described above is believed to have been caused by a
tornado with estimated maximum winds of 90 MPH.

Tree damage was also reported at many other locations in Miami
County. This includes other locations in Troy, such as Stanfield
Road, W Ross Street, and Dakota Street. The rest of this damage is
believed to have been caused by straight-line winds with speeds
of 60 to 70 MPH.

The National Weather Service would like to thank the Miami County
Emergency Management Agency for coordination with this survey.

EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the
following categories:

EF0...Weak......65 to 85 mph
EF1...Weak......86 to 110 mph
EF2...Strong....111 to 135 mph
EF3...Strong....136 to 165 mph
EF4...Violent...166 to 200 mph
EF5...Violent...>200 mph

* The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
change pending final review of the event and publication in NWS
Storm Data.

$$

BPP/HATZOS

 

 

[StormfanaticInd]

1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said:

It seems like it just outright refuses to storm in Indy anymore. Still wait on the first good storm this year. Lol smh

That being said the environment is very favorable right now👀

[i70split]

1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said:

It seems like it just outright refuses to storm in Indy anymore. Still wait on the first good storm this year. Lol smh

I am hoping these cells just west of me and south of Indy might graze my place. I am hearing thunder

[StormfanaticInd]

Storms are exploding now. Hmmmm

[snowlover2]

Quote

  Mesoscale Discussion 1578
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0338 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022

   Areas affected...southern IL into central IN and western OH

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 242038Z - 242245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage should gradually increase through
   the evening. Storms may produce strong to severe gusts into this
   evening.

   DISCUSSION...Some modest increase in convection has been noted over
   western IN/eastern IL the past 30 minutes or so. This activity is
   increasing along a differential heating zone where bands of clouds
   and showers have been ongoing for much of the day. Visible satellite
   imagery also indicated some vertically developing cumulus from
   central IN west/southwest into east-central MO. As the surface cold
   front, extending from western Lower MI through central IL/MO
   continues to shift east/southeast through the evening, additional
   convection is expected to develop. While cloud cover has limited
   heating across parts of the region, surface dewpoints in the 70s
   beneath modest midlevel lapse rates are contributing to moderate to
   strong instability. Effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt
   should allow for organized cells/clusters mainly capable of
   producing strong to severe gusts. 

   A couple rounds of convection are possible into the evening hours,
   with activity now increasing producing one round of convection
   before additional storms develop along the advancing cold front in a
   few hours. Given some uncertainty convective evolution/timing over
   the next couple of hours, trends will be monitored and a watch may
   be needed for portions of the MCD area in the next few hours.

   ..Leitman/Guyer.. 07/24/2022

 

 

[i70split]

Severe storm warning for Morgan County Indiana is aimed right at my place 

[Neoncyclone]

Impressive supercell just southwest of Indy 

[StormfanaticInd]

Impressive supercell just southwest of me now tornado warned 

[StormfanaticInd]

4 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said:

Impressive supercell just southwest of Indy 

This is going to produce. Maybe the storms behind can slow it down 

Edited July 24, 2022 by StormfanaticInd

[Michelle]

So this stuff is heading our way? Ugh.

[i70split]

My boy at home alone. He's north of the Tornado warning. I am currently directly in front center of the tornado polygon in the next county near Wilbur. In a very wooded area so may be some issues getting home. And of course I took the chainsaws out of the jeep Friday.  Been raining pretty good. 

[i70split]

X marks about where I am. Maybe storm wear itself out before it gets here? 

[StormfanaticInd]

🙄 I should play the lottery at this point lol

[FortySixAnd32]

3 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

It seems like it just outright refuses to storm in Indy anymore. Still wait on the first good storm this year. Lol smh

The dreaded 7-10 split!!!

[NWOhioChaser]

Glad someone is getting something out of this...waste of a good pattern around here.