NWOhioChaser Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 2 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: Yeah the past several years have been dead overall maybe one to three ok setups a year. We used to get good setups all the time Yeah, I'll admit we have definitely had a few setups that were pretty favorable, but either the cap was too strong or we lost diurnal heating and storms go kaput. This season I've had to be more aware of watering times for outdoor crops. As soon as June hit, I've either had to worry about dry soil, or wind damage. That one I will say. It's been a windier summer this far IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Crazy what some sampling will do to a model Model trend loop for 15z tomorrow Now I see the reasoning behind them extending marginal risk down to western Ohio for Day 2. If verified there'd be a couple of warnings based on winds alone. Edited July 23, 2022 by NWOhioChaser 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 Reed Timmer just posted this on FB. Quote Reed Timmer Extreme Meteorologist 9m · Jaw-dropping mothership northwest of Minot, North Dakota earlier. WOW! 1 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 23, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 23, 2022 (edited) 21 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Reed Timmer just posted this on FB. Imagine being the pioneers of the 19th century exploring the Plains and seeing something like this. If I were in their shoes, I'd have a heart attack. Edited July 23, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 23, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 23, 2022 Damn. That's a pretty serious MCS for northern Ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 8 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Damn. That's a pretty serious MCS for northern Ohio The end of that run is getting into peak heating. Have to wonder how much the tail end in IN might restrengthen if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 Looks like a late night mcs is likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 wow, what happened in Kansas? I wasn't watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 9 minutes ago, Chinook said: wow, what happened in Kansas? I wasn't watching Landspouts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 Newest HRRR run. It seems to be overdoing the temps because i don't see any chance of it hitting 100 here. Maybe could have the MCS too far north because of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist MidwestWX Posted July 23, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted July 23, 2022 (edited) I'm just trying to solicit Aurora photos since I'm stuck on mids and I'm rewarded with this enhanced? 😂 Let's ride Minnesota! We're locked and loaded. Edit: I guess I should work on my AFD. Edited July 23, 2022 by MidwestWX 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 23, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 23, 2022 Eastern North Dakota.... dang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist MidwestWX Posted July 23, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted July 23, 2022 1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Eastern North Dakota.... dang It's the Appetizer before the main event(s)…! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Eastern North Dakota.... dang Says radar confirmed but doesn't appear to be a cc drop. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1239 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 NDC035-097-230600- /O.CON.KFGF.TO.W.0033.000000T0000Z-220723T0600Z/ Grand Forks ND-Traill ND- 1239 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN GRAND FORKS AND NORTHWESTERN TRAILL COUNTIES... At 1239 AM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Holmes, or 18 miles southwest of Grand Forks, moving east at 60 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Reynolds and Buxton. This includes Interstate 29 between mile markers 115 and 132. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist MidwestWX Posted July 23, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted July 23, 2022 (edited) Sorry about that -- It looks like a potential CC drop for a frame or two but it may also be due to dust/debris getting into the storm's inflow. Edited July 23, 2022 by MidwestWX Used mobile and it messed up the quote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist MidwestWX Posted July 23, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted July 23, 2022 Here is the latest SPC update! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 Quote Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the Upper Midwest and southern Great Lakes. Damaging winds with gusts over 75 miles per hour, a few tornadoes and large to very large hail will be possible with the more intense storms. ...Upper Midwest/Southern Great Lakes... An upper-level trough, currently evident in water vapor imagery over the northern Rockies, will move east-southeastward across the northern Plains today. At the surface, a low and an associated cold front will move southeastward from central South Dakota into the mid Missouri Valley. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place from the mid Missouri Valley eastward into the southern Great Lakes, with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s F. As the trough approaches the northern Plains this morning, scattered convective initiation should take place across the central Dakotas. Convective coverage is expected to expand as a cluster organizes into a line around midday. This line is forecast to move east-southeastward across southern Minnesota and northern Iowa by early afternoon, and then eastward across southern and central Wisconsin during the mid to late afternoon. RAP and NAM forecast soundings near the strongest instability in southern Wisconsin at 21Z have MLCAPE in the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear of 30 to 35 knots. Directional shear is evident at low levels with strong speed shear present at mid levels. The RAP has lapse rates near 8.0 C/km throughout the forecast sounding, suggesting that any line that can become organized will likely produce wind damage. The best potential for damaging winds, including gusts above 70 knots, is forecast from southeast Minnesota and northwest Iowa eastward across southern Wisconsin, near the axis of strongest instability. Supercells that develop within the linear MCS could also produce large hail, with hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter possible. A few tornadoes may also occur with bow echoes or rotating cells that form within the line. The linear MCS is forecast to continue to move east-southeastward into southern Lower Michigan by early evening. Although model forecasts have a greater spread concerning instability in southern Lower Michigan, it seems likely that moderate instability will be in place. This should enable the linear MCS to remain severe as it crosses southern Lower Michigan, where wind damage will be likely. ...Central Plains... A cold front is forecast to move southward into the central Plains by this afternoon. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 60s F. This will contribute to narrow corridor of moderate instability just ahead of the front by afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop near the front during the afternoon will move southeastward across southern and eastern Nebraska. These storms should eventually affect parts of northern Kansas and far northern Missouri. The moderate instability, combined with 0-6 km shear near 30 knots and low-level lapse rates around 7.5 C/km, should be sufficient for isolated damaging wind gusts. Hail could also occur with the stronger cells. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 07/23/2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 Quote DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2022 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST U.S.... ..SUMMARY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY AND NORTHEAST U.S. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. ..SYNOPSIS AN EXPANSIVE UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL MOVE EAST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHEAST U.S., WHILE THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE FRONT OVER KS BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY. ..OHIO VALLEY/NORTHEAST U.S SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF IL/IN SUNDAY MORNING AS REMNANTS OF SATURDAY'S MCS CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST. DESPITE LINGERING CONCERNS ON DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF THIS PRECIPITATION, DIURNAL HEATING OF WIDESPREAD MID 60S-LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE/POCKETS OF STRONG MLCAPE SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT, REINFORCED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA BY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AVERAGING 35-50 KTS WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE AREA RESIDES ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ..BUNTING.. 07/23/2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 15 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Today has that look. Could be another derecho day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWsnowhio Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 Gotta love the uncertainty and unpredictability of it all. Watching trends and developments, knowing our local terrain and historical patterns, and seeing what all verifies compared to our own takes on each situation is part of the fun when it comes to geeking out about this stuff. I’m always talking weather with my wife when something is brewing (admittedly to her chagrin at times). I kind of had a “hey, how about that” moment the other day when there was severe weather in Ohio. She asked about the tornado threat, and I told her that I wouldn’t worry too much about it here, but if I were a betting man I’d be looking for something to happen toward the Mansfield-Ashland area. I’ll be damned…the first tornado warning of the event included both the cities of Mansfield and Ashland and the cell eventually produced a high-end (albeit short-lived) EF-1 just east of there. Just a cool personal prognostication moment (and thankfully nobody was hurt) where the blind squirrel found an acorn. Maybe I could end up being a betting man once in a while after all! 😁 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 New watch up for NE IN/NW OH. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWsnowhio Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 Well… how about that? 710 AM EDT Sat Jul 23 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Indiana Northwestern to central Ohio Lake Erie * Effective this Saturday morning and afternoon from 710 AM until 200 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...An increasingly organized complex of severe thunderstorms will move into a destabilizing air mass across parts of northern Indiana and Ohio the remainder of this morning into early afternoon, offering mainly damaging/severe gusts. Isolated large hail is possible, and a line-embedded tornado cannot be ruled out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWsnowhio Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 Looks like it’s gonna be an active day or two! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 This complex is getting interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted July 23, 2022 Share Posted July 23, 2022 Close but no cigar for Toledo I'm afraid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now