Moderators StretchCT Posted July 2, 2022 Moderators Share Posted July 2, 2022 (edited) Info from the discussion involving the keeping of Bonnie's name. Thus meaning the EPAC has two B systems this year. She is forecast to be a hurricane, but not affect land as such. Spoiler Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 400 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022 It is worth mentioning that Bonnie's low-level circulation is expected to survive its passage across Central America, similar to that of Hurricane Otto back in 2016. Thus, the system is expected to retain its name even after it moves into the far eastern Pacific later today. The intermediate advisory at 1200 UTC will be issued under the same Atlantic header as before. Product headers will change to eastern Pacific headers beginning with the next complete advisory at 1500 UTC, with the ATCF identifier changing from AL022022 to EP042022. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 11.3N 85.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER LAKE NICARAGUA 12H 02/1800Z 11.3N 87.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN 24H 03/0600Z 11.5N 89.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 12.0N 91.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 13.0N 95.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 04/1800Z 13.9N 98.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 14.7N 101.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 16.0N 106.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 16.4N 110.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin Edited July 11, 2022 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 2, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted July 2, 2022 Sunset Sat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 3, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted July 3, 2022 (edited) Looking pretty good. Currently 65mph, but forecast to 75 by 0z. Max out at 100mph. Spoiler WTPZ44 KNHC 031435 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022 Bonnie appears to be gradually gaining strength. Satellite images show a strong convective band, with a significant amount of lightning, on the western side of the system. Recent microwave data indicate than an inner core is becoming better established, with hints of an eye apparent in the 37 GHz channel. The latest Dvorak classifications were both 3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity is nudged up to 55 kt based on that data. The storm is currently experiencing a moderate amount of easterly shear, but that is expected to let up some during the next day or so. The improving upper-level wind pattern combined with a moist air mass and warm SSTs should allow Bonnie to steadily strengthen through Monday. Rapid intensification is a possibility, and the SHIPS model shows a fair chance (40 percent) of that occurring within the next 24 hours. In a couple of days, however, easterly shear is expected to increase and SSTs gradually cool beneath the system. These factors should end the strengthening trend and perhaps induce slow weakening. The NHC intensity forecast shows a faster rate of strengthening than the previous one in the short term, but is otherwise unchanged. Bonnie is still moving relatively quickly westward at 280/14 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer Bonnie westward to west-northwestward during the next several days, roughly parallel to the coast of southern Mexico. The track models are in good agreement, and the new forecast lies close to the various consensus aids. Based on the forecast, no watches are required for Guatemala or southern/southwestern Mexico, but interests there should closely monitor updates, as a northward adjustment to the track could require tropical storm watches for portions of this coastline. The main impact from Bonnie is expected to be rough surf and the potential for rip currents along the coast of Guatemala today and southern/southwestern Mexico Monday and Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 11.9N 92.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 12.5N 94.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 13.3N 97.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 14.1N 100.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 14.9N 103.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 06/0000Z 15.4N 105.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 15.7N 108.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 16.2N 112.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 17.0N 117.3W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi Edited July 3, 2022 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 5, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted July 5, 2022 Bonnie continues to strengthen to a 100mph hurricane. There is room for more strengthening, even to major status (see spoiler) 4:00 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 Location: 13.9°N 100.3°W Moving: W at 17 mph Min pressure: 978 mb Max sustained: 100 mph Spoiler Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 400 PM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022 Bonnie continues to strengthen and it has a become a fairly well organized hurricane. Visible satellite images show a distinct eye and inner core, and outer bands continue to become better established. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates are 4.5/77 kt and 5.0/90 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively, and the initial intensity is nudged up to 85 kt based on that data. Bonnie has been on a steady strengthening trend since it emerged over the eastern Pacific a couple of days ago, and it could strengthen some more through tonight. Although none of the intensity models show Bonnie reaching major hurricane status, it seems like a possibility given recent trends. However, by early Tuesday, the models suggest that the intensification trend will likely plateau as northeasterly shear is expected to increase to the 15-20 kt range. The shear is expected to let up beginning Wednesday, but Bonnie will be tracking over progressively cooler waters, especially late in the period. The net result seems to suggest little change in strength from 12-72 hours, followed by steady weakening once Bonnie moves over sub 26C waters and into a drier air mass in about 4 days. This forecast lies at the high end of the guidance in the short term, but is near the consensus aids beyond 48 hours. The hurricane is moving westward at 15 kt on the south-southwest side of a deep-layer ridge. Since the subtropical ridge is expected to build westward, this should keep Bonnie on a west to west-northwest path during the next several days. There is some speed, or along-track, differences in the models, but they all show a similar theme. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and near the various consensus models. Although the core of Bonnie is expected to remain well south of Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will continue to affect southwestern Mexico for another day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 13.9N 100.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 14.4N 102.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 15.1N 104.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 15.6N 107.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 15.8N 109.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 16.1N 111.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 16.5N 113.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 17.8N 119.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 19.3N 125.3W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 5, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted July 5, 2022 Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 5, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted July 5, 2022 Up to 105mph and down to 973 mb 4:00 AM CDT Tue Jul 5 Location: 15.1°N 103.2°W Moving: WNW at 17 mph Min pressure: 972 mb Max sustained: 105 mph Forecast to strengthen just a bit more then weaken FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 15.1N 103.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 15.5N 105.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 15.9N 107.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 16.2N 109.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 16.5N 111.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 07/1800Z 17.1N 114.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 17.8N 117.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 19.0N 123.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 20.0N 129.5W 45 KT 50 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 5, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted July 5, 2022 (edited) Wow, solid strengthening. Now a major hurricane. urricane Bonnie Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022 ...BONNIE BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...FIRST OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SEASON... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 104.3W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES Edited July 5, 2022 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 6, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted July 6, 2022 Still 100kts/115mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 7, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted July 7, 2022 Bonnie down to 90mph 980 mb 3:00 AM MDT Thu Jul 7 Location: 17.1°N 112.5°W Moving: WNW at 14 mph Min pressure: 980 mb Max sustained: 90 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 11, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted July 11, 2022 Post-Tropical Cyclone Bonnie Advisory Number 49 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 09 2022 ...BONNIE'S LONG VOYAGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA ENDS AS IT BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 129.4W ABOUT 1275 MI...2055 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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