Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 5, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 5, 2022 (edited) This MCS is following a pronounced string of robust parameters. No models have this thing sticking together past 0z/northern Iowa. If this holds together through the evening, which isn't supported by models but can't rule it out, it is possible that the MCS maintains at least some strength. This just popped up on my twitter feed. Again, not saying we should prepare for a derecho but at this time of year, MCSs can maintain themselves past sunset. Edited July 5, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 5, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 5, 2022 (edited) You can step outside right now and see anvils of storms in two different states. First pic is looking south at the storms in northern KY. Second is looking west at the storm east of Indianapolis Recovering nicely from the stormy morning. Gotta be nearing 90 degrees now. Edited July 5, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michelle Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 I know right where you are! LOL Crazy you can see them both. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 (edited) A much needed inch of rain came through this morning between 4-6. Lots of thunder and lightning with it too. A couple of gusts sounded pretty gnarly, but too lazy to get out of bed and take a look. But glad we got a good storm! Threat has mostly shifted west of us for tonight, but there's still a chance of storms around 9-11. Might catch the extreme western fringe if the MCS holds. But it's time to share the wealth with rain. Muggy as all get out today though. Edited July 5, 2022 by NWOhioChaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 5, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, Michelle said: I know right where you are! LOL Crazy you can see them both. I figured at least one person was gonna be able to piece it together 😂 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 2 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: Extremely over my area and points west Extreme instability, nothing like an extremely humid hot day. We've had a lot of those lately, almost wishing summer was over already. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 This was about 40 minutes ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: Extreme instability, nothing like an extremely humid hot day. We've had a lot of those lately, almost wishing summer was over already. It's 99 here in Indy with high humidity😭 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 5, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 5, 2022 (edited) SW OH is still kinda almost in it. Not expecting much anymore but who knows. SPC is naming this a derecho... rightfully so DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2022 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA... ..SUMMARY A DERECHO WITH EMBEDDED GUSTS OVER 80 MPH WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA, PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA THROUGH EVENING. SEVERE WINDS MAY PERSIST TONIGHT AS FAR EAST AS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. ..SD/MN/IA REGION A DERECHO IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING GUSTS OVER 90 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD, AND THE THREAT OF PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD IMPACT THE I-29 CORRIDOR BY 21Z. A ZONE OF VERY STRONG INSTABILITY EXISTS ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT, WITH MLCAPE OF 3000-4000 J/KG FROM SOUTHEAST SD ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHERN IL. GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER MEASUREMENTS ARE AVERAGING 1.75 TO 2.00" ACROSS THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT, CONFIRMING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE QUALITY. AS SUCH, THE DERECHO, OR AT LEAST A SEVERE MCS, IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CORRIDOR EXTENDING WELL EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MN, NORTHERN IA, AND SOUTHERN WI. Edited July 5, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 If storms do explode they will have plenty of fuel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 5, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 5, 2022 The outflow boundary has been mixed out in east-central Indiana. Mesoanalysis says there's 6000 sbcape there. We'll see if anything can develop. Only 25-35 knots effective shear so borderline for supercells 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 Ugly clouds coming into view on the Sioux Falls cams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 (edited) Nasty - two bookend vorts in there with some feeder supercells popping up ahead of it. Edited July 5, 2022 by junior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 5, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 5, 2022 Looks like HRRR was wrong about how quick the derecho would dissipate. I think it's reasonable to say Indiana should get the MCS this evening. Instability will wane a bit, but this MCS obviously has a very strong cold pool/momentum built up. Mesoscale Discussion 1382 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022 Areas affected...Northeastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 052032Z - 052230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A watch is likely for parts of northern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Sufficient shear and substantial buoyancy will promote storms capable of damaging winds and large hail. DISCUSSION...Moisture has pooled along a stationary boundary across parts of the Upper Midwest. Surface temperatures in the low 90s F have allowed substantial buoyancy (4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE) to develop along and south of the boundary. Flow aloft remains strong enough for effective shear value of 35-45 kts. Given this environment, organized storms capable of damaging winds and large hail are possible. Visible satellite imagery shows developing cumulus towers in southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois, with greater agitation also noted in northern Iowa. Guidance has been relatively consistent with storms firing along the boundary. in terms of timing, observations would suggest that storms are most likely within the next 1-2 hours in Wisconsin/Illinois. However, additional development is possible into northern Iowa ahead of the intense MCS now in southeast South Dakota. Even without frontal development in Iowa, the MCS is likely to persist and impact the region. These areas will likely need a watch this afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 🤨 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 5, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 5, 2022 Appears the embedded tornadic supercell in the derecho is sinking back from the front edge. Might become a MCV now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 5, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 5, 2022 Wind probabilities down, hail probabilities up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 5, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 5, 2022 (edited) Not sure I've seen such strong winds in the northern part of a derecho. Northwest of Sioux Falls. Warnings say 80 mph winds. Warning ahead of the bow echo is only for 70 mph. Edited July 5, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 when the radar installation stops measuring the hodograph -before- the severe storm, and measures the hodograph -in- the severe storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 5, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 5, 2022 90-95 mph winds just 600 feet above ground. Massive windfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 5, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 5, 2022 47 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Wind probabilities down, hail probabilities up Probabilities are actually slightly greater than previous. Slightly greater hail probabilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 Out of the running for today but hoping we get one more chance for severe weather before this pattern breaks down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 Wow looks like a pretty intense MCS going on up there. Just randomly checked the SPC outlook and saw a moderate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 5, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 5, 2022 From a couple hours ago but still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 (edited) Tornado warning in north central IL near Woodstock. Edited July 5, 2022 by snowlover2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now