July 1-21, 2022 | Ring of Fire/MCS Outbreak Sequence

[snowlover2]

Quote

  Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 AM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

   Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...OHIO VALLEY...AND
   MID-ATLANTIC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Tuesday
   across parts of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest, Ohio
   Valley, and Mid-Atlantic. Large hail and damaging winds appear to be
   the main threats.

   ...Lower Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic...
   A complex and messy forecast scenario is apparent across these
   regions on Tuesday. A loosely organized cluster of thunderstorms may
   be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning across parts
   of the Midwest/Ohio Valley. This activity should be associated with
   a weak mid-level shortwave trough that is forecast to progress
   eastward across the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic through the day.
   It remains unclear whether the morning convection will restrengthen
   as it crosses the Appalachians and reaches the coastal Mid-Atlantic
   by late Tuesday afternoon. Regardless, most guidance suggests that
   moderate instability will develop downstream through the day as
   diurnal heating occurs and low-level moisture returns northward.
   Enhanced mid-level flow should also be present to foster around
   30-40+ kt of deep-layer shear, which will support organized
   updrafts. Any convection that can develop in this regime will have
   the potential to become severe and pose a threat for both damaging
   winds and hail. Confidence remains fairly low in the details of
   convective evolution and placement through Tuesday night. Still,
   some guidance shows one or more bowing clusters strengthening across
   parts of MD/VA by late Tuesday afternoon.

   Convective potential in the wake of the morning thunderstorms across
   the OH Valley also remains unclear. Regardless, moderate to strong
   instability should develop along/south of a front across Lower MI
   and vicinity by peak afternoon heating. If robust convection can
   develop across this region, it would pose a threat for mainly
   damaging winds and large hail. Some guidance suggests a threat for
   one or more bowing clusters across the OH Valley Tuesday
   evening/night. Have accordingly expanded the Slight Risk for
   hail/wind to encompass more of the OH Valley into southern Lower MI.

   ...Northern/Central Plains into the Midwest...
   There may be a small cluster of mainly elevated thunderstorms
   ongoing Tuesday morning across parts of the northern Plains. There
   is some chance that this convection will persist as it develops
   southeastward across SD and vicinity through Tuesday morning. If
   this activity can reach greater instability along/south of a front
   across eastern SD into southern MN, it would pose a greater threat
   for severe/damaging winds Tuesday afternoon/evening as it spreads
   east-southeastward across the Midwest. Additional thunderstorms may
   form along/near the front across southern MN/northern IA into
   southern WI/northern IL. Large-scale ascent appears nebulous at best
   across these areas, but strong to very strong instability and
   sufficiently strong deep-layer shear will support robust/severe
   convection with any thunderstorms that can form or move into this
   region. Have therefore increased severe hail/wind probabilities
   across this Midwest to account for this potential.

   Otherwise, yet another day of active thunderstorm development is
   forecast across the northern Rockies into the northern/central
   Plains. An upper ridge will remain prominent over much of the
   Plains, but multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations should
   spread east-northeastward across these regions through the period.
   Initially high-based convection over the higher terrain should
   eventually reach greater instability over the adjacent northern High
   Plains by late Tuesday afternoon. Isolated to scattered supercells
   capable of producing both large hail and severe winds gusts may
   occur as deep-layer shear of 40-50+ kt is forecast. Some clustering
   of convection may also occur, particularly near a front that should
   be draped over parts of southern SD into NE.

   ..Gleason.. 07/04/2022

 

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

6 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

 

Roughly 1/7th of the US population in the slight risk. That's pretty significant, yet it's still way disproportionate to the amount of land covered. 

Edited July 4, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

27 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Mini-supercell in Nebraska with a debris signature

Accurate

 

Edited July 4, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Guest]

Aberdeen NWS had me for “amounts generally under one tenth of an inch with higher amounts possible under isolated thunderstorms.”

 

2.93” in about an hour and a half….

Oh and a mesonet 1 mile away recorded a 77mph gust with it but no warning.

[NWOhioChaser]

I'm liking Northern Ohios chances for tomorrow.  Today's high of 95 will be the hottest 4th of July here in like 15 years.

[snowlover2]

Fairly large day 3 slight risk area too.

Quote

 Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
   CAROLINAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday from
   parts of the northern Rockies/Plains into the Midwest, Ohio Valley,
   and Mid-Atlantic.

   ...Midwest into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic...
   Some thunderstorms may be ongoing Wednesday morning across a portion
   of the Midwest. It remains unclear whether they will persist with
   eastward extent into the afternoon. A nearly stationary front across
   the Midwest into the OH Valley should provide a focus for severe
   convection on Wednesday. As diurnal heating occurs, strong
   instability should develop along/south of the boundary by Wednesday
   afternoon, with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized
   convection. One or more bowing clusters may move east-southeastward
   across this favorable thermodynamic environment through the period,
   with latest guidance offering a myriad of possible solutions/tracks
   to these possible MCSs. Regardless, have included a zone of Slight
   Risk equivalent severe probabilities where confidence is somewhat
   greater in robust thunderstorms occurring capable of producing
   severe/damaging winds and hail. Farther east across southern VA into
   the Carolinas, deep-layer shear is forecast to be a bit weaker.
   Still, multiple loosely organized clusters capable of producing
   mainly wind damage should occur as convection develops along/south
   of a front and spreads east-southeastward through Wednesday evening.


   ...Northern Rockies/Plains...
   Upper ridging will remain over much of the Plains through the
   period. But, a weak shortwave trough should overspread parts of the
   northern Rockies/Plains through Wednesday evening. Modest
   large-scale ascent associated with this feature should encourage
   convective development over the higher terrain initially. As this
   activity spreads into the adjacent High Plains, it will likely
   encounter greater low-level moisture and related instability.
   Deep-layer shear should be strong enough for a mix of multicells and
   supercells capable of producing both large hail and damaging winds.

   ..Gleason.. 07/04/2022

 

 

[snowlover2]

ILN 

Quote

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
West-northwest mid level flow across the Ohio Valley around the
periphery of a broad mid level ridge centered over the Lower MS
Valley. Ongoing MCS to our west late in the day is expected to
weaken as moves into a less favorable environment over ILN/s
area during the evening- with drier air in place. Airmass
moistens up with low level theta-e advection thru the night. A
second MCS which develops over the Great Lakes may make it into
ILN/s northern counties late tonight. There continues to be
good spread and therefore uncertainty on how far south the
storms make it overnight. Therefore have limited pops to chance
category with the best chance across the far north. Temperatures
will be mild with lows from 70 to 75.

Ongoing MCS across northern Ohio Tuesday morning to push east
off to the east with mid level shortwave. Confidence in forecast
on Tuesday is low regarding additional convective development.
Moderate to strong instability develops during the heating of
the day in the wake of the morning thunderstorms. It remains
unclear where outflow will lay out to aid the development of
deep convection. Due to instability -- if convection develops
across this region, there is a threat for damaging winds and
large hail. Will continue to mention this severe potential
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night in the HWO product. Hot
conditions with highs generally in the lower 90s. Temperatures
combined with increased humidity will result in max heat indices
around 100 Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cluster of thunderstorms is likely to be dropping southeast across
the area Tuesday night ahead of a potent short wave disturbance.
Following a relative lull Wednesday morning, a resurgence of
thunderstorms is expected Wednesday afternoon in increasing
instability ahead of the next disturbance. Organized by strong winds
aloft, any thunderstorms could be strong to severe in a very
unstable environment where CAPE could exceed 5000 J/KG. Heavy rain
will also be likely from an atmosphere containing over 2 inches of
PWAT. More thunderstorms are forecast for Thursday and Friday in a
persistently unstable regime enhanced by more disturbances in a
westerly flow aloft, aided by convergence along a cold front.

Improvement should be observed on the weekend as the front drops
south, allowing decreasing thunderstorm chances as high pressure
moves in on a northwest flow aloft.

High temperatures reaching the lower and middle 90s on Wednesday
will gradually fall to the lower and middle 80s by the weekend due
to cold advection associated with frontal passage.

 

 

[cperry29]

I’m not endorsing the HRDPS in any way but it did fairly well a few weeks ago with derechos in Ohio, FWIW. 

[Guest]

Ouch!

 

 

[NWOhioChaser]

Storms going to take all day to travel 300ish miles here. Slow storms. Hope they hold.

Edited July 4, 2022 by NWOhioChaser

[snowlover2]

Couple of enhanced areas added on the day 2 update.

Quote

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1234 PM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

   Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF EASTERN MT...SOUTHWEST ND AND NORTHWEST SD...AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST
   SD...NORTHEAST NE...NORTHWEST IA AND SOUTHWEST MN...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are expected Tuesday across parts of the
   northern/central Plains into the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and
   Mid-Atlantic. Large hail and damaging winds appear to be the main
   threats. The most intense gusts and very large hail are expected
   across eastern Montana into the Middle Missouri Valley.

   ...Synopsis...

   The overall forecast philosophy remains similar to the previous Day
   2 outlook, though confidence has increased in greater significant
   severe potential across parts of eastern MT into the Middle Missouri
   Valley Tuesday afternoon/evening.

   An amplified upper ridge will be in place over the Plains, while an
   upper trough pivots east across the lower Great Lakes/Northeast
   vicinity. Several shortwave perturbations are forecast to migrate
   through the crest of the ridge from the central/northern Rockies
   into the central/northern Plains. Meanwhile, a surface cold front is
   forecast to extend from the Upper Midwest into southern Ontario
   Tuesday morning. The front will develop southward through the
   period, becoming positioned from southern MN to northern Ohio then
   eastward to central NJ and offshore from the Northeast coast.

   ...SD/NE/IA/MN Vicinity...

   A cluster of elevated thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing across
   parts of ND/SD Tuesday morning. This activity could pose a threat
   for hail through the morning as it drifts east/southeast. By
   afternoon, these storms may re-intensify, or new convection may
   develop, within increasing moisture along a baroclinic zone along
   the NE/SD border ahead of the surface front. Surface dewpoints in
   the upper 60s to near 70 F and strong heating on the northern
   periphery of the low/midlevel thermal ridge, and beneath steep
   midlevel lapse rates, will result in a corridor of strong
   instability greater than 2500 J/kg. Effective shear magnitudes
   greater than 30 kt will result in organized updrafts. Long, straight
   hodographs and a deep effective inflow layer will support supercells
   capable of very large hail. Forecast guidance also suggests some
   potential for upscale development is possible via storm-scale
   interactions and a modestly increasing southerly low-level jet
   during the evening. Given expected strong instability and very steep
   low-level lapse rates, this activity also will have the potential to
   produce intense damaging gusts.

   ...Eastern MT into the Western Dakotas Vicinity...

   High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop over higher terrain
   during the afternoon. Easterly low-level flow will bring increasing
   low-level moisture westward through the afternoon. As higher-based
   storms encounter higher-quality moisture and instability across
   eastern MT, potential for significant severe thunderstorms will
   increase. Supercell wind profiles are forecast, with very steep mid
   and low-level lapse rates across the region. Very large hail, and
   intense damaging wind gusts are possible. While convection is
   expected to mostly be discrete, some bowing segments are possible
   across far eastern MT into the western Dakotas by evening. This may
   increase damaging wind potential during the evening.

   ...Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic...

   Forecast confidence is less across the region compared to areas
   further west. This is partly due to expected areas of ongoing
   showers/thunderstorms and cloud cover across the Ohio Valley
   vicinity Tuesday morning. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist and
   unstable airmass will reside downstream from this activity, and
   redevelop/intensification is expected by afternoon across parts of
   WV/PA into the Mid-Atlantic. Additional thunderstorms are expected
   to develop ahead of the southward-sagging cold front further west
   across parts of WI/MI into IL and the lower OH Valley. Moderate
   deep-layer shear will support organized clusters/bowing segments,
   and swaths of strong wind gusts will possible from late afternoon
   into the evening. Some hail potential also will accompany stronger,
   more semi-discrete cellular activity as well.

   ..Leitman.. 07/04/2022

 

 

[Chinook]

16 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

The enhanced risk would easily verify on storm reports if Montana was more populated. But the intensity of the storms on radar suggests this was easily worthy of an enhanced risk.

I agree on that.

My guess is that unusual supercell caused some maybe EF1+ damage  around US-34 on the edge of the city of Grand Island, and perhaps tracked northeastward for over 1 mile.

I happened to be looking at the Day-1 outlook issued at 06z (midnight for me) to make a forecast for Snowlover2's severe weather game. Then I did a quick look at radar and saw the storm! 

I mark my forecast point on my GRLevel3 system, so I don't forget.

[StormfanaticInd]

Watching storms in Illinois. Wonder if they will hold together into Indiana 🤔

[snowlover2]

18z HRRR

[snowlover2]

Tornado warning just south of Ottawa IL.

[snowlover2]

ILN

Quote

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
405 PM EDT Mon Jul 4 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be hot and humid through much of the week. Several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Quiescent conditions will continue through the evening.
Thunderstorms moving across Illinois are forecast to dissipate
before reaching the area. However, additional convection
forecast to develop in Wisconsin will drop southeast and likely
make it to near I-70 before daybreak. Expect this activity to be
weakening and elevated. So the potential for severe weather is
low.

Temperatures will only fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Decaying MCS is expected to continue southeast and dissipate
before the morning is through. This will likely leave a boundary
across the forecast area which will be a focus for new
convection as the atmosphere becomes very unstable in the
afternoon, although shear is minimal. Where that boundary will
be located is uncertain. With the expectation that CAMs are
handling this better than synoptic models, have relied heavily
on the HREF, as opposed to any one particular CAM, as a guide
for this forecast package.

Given that, better coverage of new storms is forecast to be near
the Ohio River with perhaps somewhat greater chance in the Tri-
State. If shear is as unimpressive as forecast, then expect
little organization, but more than sufficient instability to
result in tall storms that result in damaging winds and perhaps
large hail. With precipitable water approaching 2 inches,
locally heavy rainfall will also be a threat.

Storms may continue well into the evening, especially into
eastern Indiana where greater instability may linger. Another
MCS dropping out of the Great Lakes and moving into the northern
part of the forecast area late Tuesday night looks likely at
this point.

Dew points will push into the 70s Tuesday morning and remain
there through the rest of the period. Remnants/cloud debris from
morning convection could affect temperatures adding another
uncertainty in the forecast. But with highs forecast to get into
the lower to mid 90s, heat indices will be near or above
advisory criterion. Have issued a heat advisory only for area
where there is greater confidence at this moment. It will be
sultry Tuesday night with lows in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Northwesterly upper level flow on the eastern side up an anomalous
upper level ridge remains in place over the Ohio Valley for the
second half of the week. Northwesterly flow aloft overlaps with hot,
humid, unstable air Wednesday through Friday leading to chances for
convection especially during the afternoon hours. The strongest
storms will likely pose a downburst and heavy rain risk due to
copious amounts of instability, high PWATs, and moderate DCAPE.
Storm mode remains difficult to forecast since shear is forecast to
be fairly low (bulk shear 25 knots or less). Best guess is single
and multicells being most prevalent through the week, however there
is a chance that cold pools agglomerate leading to MCS potential.
Forecast highs remain near 90 through Friday and forecast lows are
near 70.

A cold front (with thunderstorms) may drop through the area later on
Friday into Saturday. Cooler, drier air moves in behind the front
for the bulk of the weekend with forecast temperatures near seasonal
averages.

 

 

[StormfanaticInd]

Tonight has could get interesting with mcs potential 

[btbucks]

I haven't been able to say this in years, but we could use the rain. But no Derecho please. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Tomorrow looks a little active

 

Edited July 4, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Chinook]

There is a very high dew point of 84 degrees at Denison Iowa today.  I believe that's tied for the highest I've ever seen on a US weather map. But then this Le Mars Iowa has a weather sensor that is in error. Take a look at this:

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

1 minute ago, Chinook said:

There is a very high dew point of 84 degrees at Denison Iowa today.  I believe that's tied for the highest I've ever seen on a US weather map. But then this Le Mars Iowa has a weather sensor that is in error. Take a look at this:

 

Highest reliably recorded dew point in the US is something like 87. From 2011 I believe.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Re-development and seemingly rapid mesocyclone development in southern Wisconsin. 

~42 knots effective shear, 360 m2/s2 effective SRH, and 2171 mlcape. Yep, rapid supercell development makes sense.

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Something appears to be missing because the storms are failing to get to severe intensity. No doubt they're rotating. We'll find out when the 0z DVN sounding comes in.

[ClicheVortex2014]

This is porn for storm lovers in the OV

Edited July 5, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

26 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Something appears to be missing because the storms are failing to get to severe intensity. No doubt they're rotating. We'll find out when the 0z DVN sounding comes in.

Dangerous environment ahead of the mostly sub-severe supercells. Really nothing looks off about this sounding aside from the slight, weak inversion above the surface. But that wouldn't why there are so many supercells but only one is severe warned.

Maybe the layer just above 500mb is too dry? I dunno. But the big saving grace here is that the storm mode should become linear pretty quick.

Edited July 5, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014