July 1-21, 2022 | Ring of Fire/MCS Outbreak Sequence

[ClicheVortex2014]

7 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

I don't buy that. All that instability ahead of that front tells me storms will fire earlier... I think. Lol

The thing is... there's nothing to force storms out ahead of the front. Sometimes there is, sometimes there isn't. Usually doesn't happen in the summer because that usually requires some strong dynamics forced by a strong system.

It's a good thing it's that way because otherwise east of the Plains would be THE tornado alley.

Edited July 20, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Impressive sounding for July near Columbus. Seasonably strong low-level shear, moderate instability, and borderline favorable speed shear for supercells.

This is right when the event starts to kick off, so the storm mode would be discrete.

Edited July 20, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[snowlover2]

0z 3K NAM is more active here than HRRR. It really is going to be a wait and see if and where storms can develop. Where they do develop could get nasty pretty quick.

[StormfanaticInd]

It will be extremely unstable tomorrow ahead of that front. Won't take much

 

[Chinook]

1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said:

I don't buy that. All that instability ahead of that front tells me storms will fire earlier... I think. Lol

I'm hoping for seeing storms fire farther west.

[Neoncyclone]

This makes so much sense. The HRRR has been all over the place in our region for awhile now.  That's a pretty big mistake.

Not a small mistake either, every single plot point on the great lakes was set to 0 meters

 

Edited July 20, 2022 by Neoncyclone

[NWOhioChaser]

Under slight risk for today but it looks like things will develop just east of the area. Maybe I'll be surprised though. 

[MesoscaleBanding]

I am hoping for a complete whiff IMBY. Strong winds in late July/Aug wreak havoc on my mature tomato plants that are heavy with ripening fruit.

[BoroBuckeye]

9 hours ago, Neoncyclone said:

This makes so much sense. The HRRR has been all over the place in our region for awhile now.  That's a pretty big mistake.

Not a small mistake either, every single plot point on the great lakes was set to 0 meters

 

This is crazy!  I wonder what controls they have on model changes.

[Neoncyclone]

1 hour ago, BoroBuckeye said:

This is crazy!  I wonder what controls they have on model changes.

There's a ridiculous amount of variables at play involving any high resolution model, especially the HRRR I'd imagine. I could definitely see how something like this could happen, it's just really not a good thing that it did happen, makes you wonder if there are any other oversights. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

2% tornado removed for southern Ohio so we can probably expect a tornado or two

[Neoncyclone]

 

[FortySixAnd32]

ILN:

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A surface low and upper level shortwave continues to move east across the Great Lakes today as an associated cold front drops south into the Ohio Valley. Southerly flow will increase ahead of the approaching front through the morning hours leading to increasing moisture (dew points 70+) as temperatures heat up (90+). By 1PM, the heat and humidity combine to make the heat index push 95-100 across the area. A Heat Advisory has been issued from 1PM-8PM for locations where the heat index will likely reach above 100. Another impact from the combined heat and humidity later today will be increasing instability that could fuel storm development ahead of the cold front while weak capping erodes. By the afternoon and evening, large values of instability (2000+ J/kg) overlap moderate deep shear (25 knots+ effective shear) with veered low level hodographs. This favorable parameter space suggest strong, organized storms are possible if storms form ahead of the front. Storm mode could initially be supercellular followed by multicellular structures with many cell to cell interactions due to boundary parallel shear ahead of the front. While there is still uncertainty regarding to storm coverage and occurrence, SPC has issued a slight risk for the conditional chance of strong storms that could produce strong winds and perhaps some hail and a tornado or two. The timeframe for storm development starts around 2-3pm northwest of Dayton. The storm threat then expands south and east through the late afternoon and evening hours before ending by midnight across southern and central Ohio. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Thunderstorms will continue to work through the forecast area at the start of the near term before exiting the region during the nighttime hours.

[Neoncyclone]

Discrete initiation, pretty good looking storms firing.

[ClicheVortex2014]

88 degrees, 79 dew point. 103 heat index. Disgusting.

[snowlover2]

Watch up for NW OH and MI.

[Blitz]

12 hours ago, Neoncyclone said:

This makes so much sense. The HRRR has been all over the place in our region for awhile now.  That's a pretty big mistake.

Not a small mistake either, every single plot point on the great lakes was set to 0 meters

 

Do they only input real world data into the model? Or do these models take into account the modeled data PLUS the real world data?

What I’m asking is “does the model data since 2020 with 0 elevation need to be recompiled with the correct elevation and fed back into the model?”

[FortySixAnd32]

 

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

5 minutes ago, Blitz said:

Do they only input real world data into the model? Or do these models take into account the modeled data PLUS the real world data?

What I’m asking is “does the model data since 2020 with 0 elevation need to be recompiled with the correct elevation and fed back into the model?”

NWS offices launch balloons at 12z and 0z every day and that data is inputted to the models. The models piece the data together and simulate what happens given past launches and current observations. 

First thing I can think of is that it would throw off frictional effects of wind coming off the lake which is a big part of LES events. I'm sure there are also some issues with estimating LES development over the lake because, with extreme instability in the very low-levels, it's important to get the elevation right. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Hit 80 degree dew point for the second time this summer. Prior to this summer it had been 11 years.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Pretty decent sounding for July

Detroit:

Edited July 20, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Neoncyclone]

10 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Hit 80 degree dew point for the second time this summer. Prior to this summer it had been 11 years.

Hit 80 degree dewpoints here in Illinois today, feels absolutely awful outside. 

[Blitz]

1 hour ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

NWS offices launch balloons at 12z and 0z every day and that data is inputted to the models. The models piece the data together and simulate what happens given past launches and current observations. 

First thing I can think of is that it would throw off frictional effects of wind coming off the lake which is a big part of LES events. I'm sure there are also some issues with estimating LES development over the lake because, with extreme instability in the very low-levels, it's important to get the elevation right. 

But this would only effect new modelling IF previous modelling (and the difference between "modelled and observed") was part of the input data. If only observed outcomes and balloon launches were part of the modelling input data, incorrect elevation, once corrected, shouldn't effect new model outcomes. Right?

Edited July 20, 2022 by Blitz

[ClicheVortex2014]

17 minutes ago, Blitz said:

But this would only effect new modelling IF previous modelling (and the difference between "modelled and observed") was part of the input data. If only observed outcomes and balloon launches were part of the modelling input data, incorrect elevation, once corrected, shouldn't effect new model outcomes. Right?

Now that I think about it, I'm mistaken about the previous runs part because then we wouldn't see the huge run-to-run differences in the near-term that we often see on HRRR and other models.

So I'll refine my statement and say they use observed conditions from 12z/0z launches. The 6z/18z runs use old launches but, I'm guessing, they use the most recent surface observations which is automatically taken every hour. Sometimes there are scheduled, regional balloon launches at 18z and/or 6z when there's a major weather event to help with modeling. So that the models have a fresh batch of data.

Edited July 20, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Chinook]

46 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Pretty decent sounding for July

Detroit:

I was just going to post that radar-based VWP storm relative helicity for Detroit is 279 m2/s2