i70split Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 They added this little bump back into Indiana today. I was at the western tip of it today around two pm, it was pouring here at the office when I took my lunch and it was dry as a bone just a few blocks to the west as I ran a couple miles home to eat. So close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 GFS sounding in North-Central Illinois 108 hours out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 EF0 confirmed in Ohio from yesterday by ILN. Quote Public Information Statement National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1218 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022 ...EF0 TORNADO CONFIRMED IN PICKAWAY AND FAIRFIELD COUNTIES OH... The National Weather Service office in Wilmington OH has conducted a storm survey in Pickaway and Fairfield Counties, OH and has determined that damage in this area was caused by a tornado with an EF0 rating. The survey is in relation to the severe thunderstorm that moved through the area on July 17, 2022. A final assessment including results of the survey are expected to be completed and transmitted via a Public Information Statement by later today. The storm survey information will also be available on our website at http://www.weather.gov/iln Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 18, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: EF0 confirmed in Ohio from yesterday by ILN. The last 4 Southern Ohio tornadoes happened on <2% tornado days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 18, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 18, 2022 2 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Crazy strong trough for July is about to kick off 3-days of severe weather before another ring of fire kicks off. Will make a new thread for the next ring of fire. Parameters are about what you'd expect from a situation like this. Busy evening/overnight ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 Details for the Ohio EF0. Quote Public Information Statement National Weather Service Wilmington OH 550 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022 ...EF0 TORNADO CONFIRMED IN PICKAWAY AND FAIRFIELD COUNTY OHIO... Start Location...2 SSE Logan Elm Village in Pickaway County OH End Location...3 S Stoutsville in Fairfield County OH Date...07/17/2022 Start Time...04:05 PM EDT End Time...04:22 PM EDT Maximum EF-Scale Rating...EF0 Estimated Maximum Wind Speed...85 mph Maximum Path Width...100 yards Path Length...6.0 miles Beginning Lat/Lon...39.545 / -82.9335 Ending Lat/Lon...39.5679 / -82.8257 * Fatalities...0 * Injuries...3 ...Summary... In coordination with the Pickaway and Fairfield County Emergency Management Agencies, a National Weather Service storm survey was conducted in areas southeast of Circleville and Logan Elm Village in Pickaway County on July 18th, in relation to thunderstorms which impacted the area on July 17th. The first sign of damage was located on three separate properties on the west side of Kingston Pike where an RV was flipped on its side and a neighboring house had roof covering damage. Another property received minor structure damage. One injury was reported within the RV. The tornado continued east-northeast, causing tree and minor structure damage to properties along Gay-Dreisbach Road and Ludwig-Dresback Road. The max width of the tornado was likely on Ludwig-Dresback Road due to the tree damage observed. Beyond this damage, accessibility became more challenging and the distance between damage points increased. The tornado may have lifted several times throughout the remainder of the track as the tornado became less organized. It is unknown if any damage occurred between Morris Salem Road and State Route 56 East. On the north side of State Route 56 East, a single property received minor tree and structure damage, with the worst damage associated with a new outbuilding that collapsed. Two more injuries were reported within this structure. After crossing more agricultural fields, damage was observed at the Logan Elm School property on Tarlton Road. Several buildings received minor damage along with damage to various portions of the sports complex. Security camera footage provided by Logan Elm Schools helped confirm that a circulation was still evident. North of Tarlton Road and into Fairfield County, damage to trees became much weaker and sporadic. As a result, the tornadic circulation likely lifted near Dozer Road and Valentine Road Southwest. Additional tree damage to the northeast along 16th Road Southwest was considered straight-line winds. The National Weather Service would like to thank the Pickaway and Fairfield County Emergency Management Agencies, and the Logan Elm School District Officials for their support and assistance in the survey. EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the following categories: EF0...Weak......65 to 85 mph EF1...Weak......86 to 110 mph EF2...Strong....111 to 135 mph EF3...Strong....136 to 165 mph EF4...Violent...166 to 200 mph EF5...Violent...>200 mph * The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to change pending final review of the event and publication in NWS Storm Data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 Indy for Wednesday Long Term...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 311 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022 Wednesday through Thursday night... The long term will begin with an upper trough moving across the great lakes region. An attendant occluding surface low is likely to be located near Lake Superior with a trailing surface cold front moving through the CWA Wednesday. Strong SW flow ahead of the front with mostly sunny skies should create a very unstable atmosphere by early afternoon. Forecast soundings show, moderate to strong instability, effective bulk shear of 30-40kts, and dewpoints well into the 70s. While the best forcing remains north and east of the region closer to the surface low, modest forcing this far south along the front may be sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. With all this in mind, few storms could be severe with damaging wind gusts and large hail being the primary threats. Confidence remains relatively low regarding storm coverage in Indiana as forcing is weak, so will be watching this closely over the next few days for severe weather potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 18, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 18, 2022 Might be looking at the start of a derecho. May be complicated since it looks like the track will move into Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 18, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 18, 2022 Widespread 80+ mph winds just <400 feet above ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 Maybe just MAYBE Toledo can cash in on the upcoming pattern. Looks to favor more lower OV, but ya never know. Just going to be sultry with the humidity this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 19, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 19, 2022 20 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said: Maybe just MAYBE Toledo can cash in on the upcoming pattern. Looks to favor more lower OV, but ya never know. Just going to be sultry with the humidity this week. To me, this looks more favorable than the early July RoF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 19, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 19, 2022 (edited) Can't really get more favorable directional shear than North Dakota right now. Easterly surface winds, westerly upper-level winds. 40-60 knots 0-6km shear. Still results in a mostly straight hodograph given the lack of low-level winds. Edited July 19, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 Tornado warning in NW ND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 19, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 19, 2022 A few tornado warnings in Saskatchewan too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 19, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 19, 2022 Pretty obvious tornado threat with the squall in Saskatchewan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 Latest thoughts from ILN for tomorrow. Quote .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A fairly strong surface low for mid July will move across the Great Lakes on Wednesday along with an upper level shortwave and weak cold front diving south into the Ohio Valley. Despite the low and primary upper wave remaining well north of the Ohio Valley, weather impacts will still be felt across the area Wednesday afternoon and evening ahead of the front. In terms of high probability of occurrence, strengthening southerly flow ahead of the cold front will increase low level moisture through the day. Dew points reaching into the lower/middle 70s combined with actual temperatures near 90 make for heat indices approaching 100. A Heat Advisory has been issued across the Tri State and surroundings Wednesday afternoon/evening where the heat index is expected to peak over 100. Aside from the heat and humidity (which will occur), showers and storms may form ahead of the weak cold front Wednesday afternoon and evening. The main forecast challenge is in regards storm coverage and probability of occurrence. While CAMs have been inconsistent and not too robust with storm coverage, the environment ahead of the front and upper trough will likely be very unstable (MLCAPE 2000+ J/kg) with lots of shear (bulk shear 25 knots +) and a fairly weak cap. Due to the favorable storm environment and conditional threat for strong, organized storms, SPC has a slight risk highlighted over a good portion of the area with the best chances for storms north of I-70 Wednesday evening. The main threats will be for strong winds and some hail although a tornado risk may exist due to veered low level wind fields. The weak front pushes east Wednesday night bringing an end to shower and storms chances late overnight. Forecast lows are in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 INDY Short Term...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 312 PM EDT Tue Jul 19 2022 *Heat Index Values 100-110F expected Wednesday. *Isolated Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon. Tonight...Diurnal cu will dissipate with loss of daytime heating allowing for skies to become mostly clear later tonight. Will see some decent radiational cooling initially, but then warm advection will ramp up late overnight as flow increases from the southwest. This will keep low temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s, and should bring an increase in cloud cover, at least some cirrus, before daybreak. Wednesday/Wednesday night...Two main weather hazards to discuss for Wednesday--heat and chances for severe storms. High pressure will continue moving off to the southeast as a cold front approaches from the northwest along with an upper vort max moving through the Great Lakes and attendant upper trough stretching back through the Midwest. The strengthening pressure gradient will increase the southwesterly winds across central Indiana and warm advection will bring 850 mb temperatures into the 20 to 24 C range. These strong winds will also bring a stream of higher dewpoints and humidity into the area as well, and this combination of heat and humidity will bring heat index values into the 100 to 110 degree range across the area during the afternoon and early evening hours. The highest values are expected across the southern counties (105 to 110) and thus will issue a heat advisory for that area. North of there, will issue an SPS to highlight the heat potential which is only a little lower than the south. The humidity and high temperature mentioned above will create ample instability across the area before the arrival of the cold front. There are still some differences in model timing of the frontal passage, as well as when convection can be expected to fire. The better upper forcing appears to be north of the area, but with the available instability not as much forcing should be necessary. The surface front appears fairly weak, but should be able to induce sufficient convergence for convection somewhere between central and eastern portions of Indiana. Shear is questionable and highly dependent on timing of the frontal passage and if some backing can be induced in the surface wind fields. Think best potential will be in the 20 to 23z timeframe across the easternmost counties. With the available moisture, rain could be heavy, but with the front expected to move and not stall should not be a big flood threat, with the main threat being damaging winds. The convection should move east of the area early in the Wednesday night period and clouds should scatter out in the wake of the front. Cold advection behind the front will be relatively weak so lows should remain in the middle to upper 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 (edited) Idk where to put this so mods can move it if they want. Oklahoma is melting right now. Every station is reporting 100° or above. Locally it's just muggy. 87 with a DP of 68. It's been worse, but being in the sun for more than 10-15 mins. is uncomfortable . Wednesday night we have a 40% of storms. Nothing the mets are too concerned with at this point. Edited July 19, 2022 by NWOhioChaser 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 20, 2022 Moderators Share Posted July 20, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 20, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 20, 2022 (edited) 9 minutes ago, StretchCT said: On the same day that the UK broke their all-time high temp. A little more than 104 degrees. Their average high is somewhere around 68. I would ask 'what the hell is going on?' but it's not a mystery. Edited July 20, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 I have recorded the 2nd hottest temperature ever for my area. It reached up to 112°F today. The hottest ever recorded is 113°F on August 3rd, 2012. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 0z HRRR for tomorrow FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 20, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 20, 2022 (edited) 10 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: 0z HRRR for tomorrow FWIW. Seems to be eastern Ohio's year. So far. The next week should move it back to us. Edited July 20, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 21 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: 0z HRRR for tomorrow FWIW. I don't buy that. All that instability ahead of that front tells me storms will fire earlier... I think. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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