Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 17, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 17, 2022 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said: Found a Met job there? I wish. My retired parents want to move and since I can't afford my own place, I'm not gonna hold them back from moving to where they wanna go. I'm still waiting to hear back from NWS vacancies that closed 10 days ago. I got close to getting a job with NWS Memphis but fell short. Hopefully it won't be much longer. If any of the offices want to hear more from me, I'm expecting that to happen in about a week or so. Regardless, I'm gonna be looking into full-time jobs wherever and for whatever job because I need to move on. If I stay with that job for 2 months before I get a job in my field, amazing. If not, I need to move on. The job search has gone on far longer than I expected. Edited July 17, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bman10 Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 That was some of the heaviest rain I’ve ever driven in early this morning on i75 near Middletown. Crazy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 17, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 17, 2022 12 minutes ago, Bman10 said: That was some of the heaviest rain I’ve ever driven in early this morning on i75 near Middletown. Crazy. Yeah there was some serious ponding on the roads when I was out earlier. Was kinda surprised because it doesn't feel like we've had that much rain, but I did see the rainfall rate earlier. Definitely a good event to bust however close we were to being in a drought. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 West of Muncie IN getting hit hard. Quote BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 549 PM EDT Sun Jul 17 2022 The National Weather Service in Indianapolis has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Northeastern Hamilton County in central Indiana... Central Madison County in central Indiana... Southeastern Tipton County in central Indiana... Southern Delaware County in east central Indiana... Northwestern Henry County in east central Indiana... * Until 900 PM EDT. * At 549 PM EDT, the public reported thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 3 and 6.5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring. HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing flash flooding. SOURCE...Public reported. IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Muncie, Anderson, Noblesville, Alexandria, Yorktown, Cicero, Chesterfield, Lapel, Edgewood, Frankton, Arcadia, Daleville, Selma, Atlanta, Country Club Heights, Woodlawn Heights, River Forest, Ball State University and Prairie Creek Reservoir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 Quote PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 532 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2022 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0512 PM HEAVY RAIN EDGEWOOD 40.10N 85.74W 07/17/2022 E6.00 INCH MADISON IN PUBLIC Quote PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 532 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2022 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0506 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNE COUNTRY CLUB HEIG 40.15N 85.67W 07/17/2022 E6.00 INCH MADISON IN PUBLIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 17, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 17, 2022 (edited) Saw a screenshot of this AFD for Wednesday on Twitter... I was like damn, that's insanely well-detailed. Since Ohio is in the main threat region, and Cleveland is closer to the low, I assumed it was a CLE AFD. I went to school with someone that works at CLE now... his last two years were my first two years. He would give 'briefings' in the OUCAMS meetings and they were ridiculous. He was a member on AmericanWx back in the day and he was actually the first person I met at OU because of that. So I thought it might be him. I checked, and sure enough, it was him. .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Mid-level height rises (500mb 30m/12hr) on Tuesday along with a surface ridge of high pressure extending from the southeast into the local area will minimize precipitation chances Tuesday. A strong upper-level trough moves east across the upper Midwest to Lake Superior by Wednesday morning. The associated ~995 mb low will be located over Lake Superior Wednesday morning with the cold front extending south across Lake Michigan towards the mid- Mississippi Valley, and the warm front extending east across Ontario, firmly placing the local area in the warm sector on Wednesday. Strong southwest flow develops downstream this system, advecting high theta- e air into the local region through Wednesday afternoon/evening. A corridor of surface dew points in the low to mid 70s will contribute to moderate to potentially high instability within the warm sector on Wednesday, though should remain capped through much of the day Wednesday due to high 850mb temperatures of 20-22 C. Height falls (30-50m/12hr) associated with the upper-level trough will erode away at the daytime cap resulting in initial convective initiation ahead of the approaching cold front Wednesday night. Moderate deep layer shear (30-35 kts) should support organized severe convection with thunderstorms that develop Wednesday evening. Early indications point towards discrete cells initially (supporting all severe weather hazards) before growing upscale. Edited July 17, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 Quote Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0523 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 546 PM EDT Sun Jul 17 2022 Areas affected...Lower Ohio Valley into Southern MO/Northern AR... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 172145Z - 180300Z SUMMARY...Narrow streaks of enhanced rainfall totals (2-3.5") with intense sub-hourly bursts along ahead of deep-layer trof/cold front pose isolated flash flooding concerns DISCUSSION...Broad synoptic trof across Lower Lake Michigan has strong shortwave lobes rotating along/through presenting as an elongated trof within GOES-WV back across the Bootheel of MO and Arkansas. The current amplifying vort appears to be pivoting across central IND with effective confluent WAA wing extending across Central OH with effective cold front wing back SW. Strong upstream 90 kt jet over MN is helping to dig shortwave over IA/WI with 70 kt jet streak amplifying over N IND presenting highly favorable right entrance ascent dynamics across the length of the Lower Ohio River Valley this afternoon into late evening. Moisture stream though the Mississippi and Southern Plains becomes highly confluent and increased deep moisture source to over 2.25" total PWats in the Valley. With the strong synoptic forcing, cloud cover/debris has limited insolation, limiting overall convective potential, with exception to the edges of synoptic influence, in S MO/N AR and portion of W KY where instability increased to 2500-3000 J/kg, along the front. Still, limited instability (500-1000) along ahead of the cold front/5H shear axis in S IND/S IL will support some strong thunderstorm updrafts along maximized convergence near/along the front. These cells will be capable of short intense burst of highly efficient warm cloud processes with HRRR 15-min rates/totals of 1.25". Given the high stream-wise shear within the mid-levels, small vorticity centers will aid localized convergence and support narrow lines of updrafts capable of short-term training and streaks of 2-3.5" totals in 2-3hr periods resulting in possible localized flash flooding. A delicate balance is at play, where further north and east along the axis, instability is less, but forcing is stronger with potential for greater duration but lesser rates. Further south and west, higher instability will support higher rainfall production, but with faster cell motions may limit duration, as well as drier ground conditions/higher FFG. As such flash flooding is considered possible throughout the length of the upper level trof, but increases further northeast along the axis. Gallina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 (edited) Whole storm is a disorganized mess up here. Off and on rain is nice though. Desperately need it for the farmers. Lucas county can be a dead zone. Case in point... Edited July 17, 2022 by NWOhioChaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 ILN wind damage report near Circleville that says 1 injury and a possible tornado. Quote PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 435 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2022 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0404 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 S CIRCLEVILLE 39.54N 82.93W 07/17/2022 PICKAWAY OH 911 CALL CENTER *** 1 INJ *** ROOF BLOWN OFF HOME. CAMPER TIPPED OVER INJURING SOMEBODY INSIDE. POSSIBLE TORNADO. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR - ONE MINUTE BEFORE CALL CAME IN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 Band of very heavy looking rain about to move into the Dayton area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 36 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: ILN wind damage report near Circleville that says 1 injury and a possible tornado. Survey officially planned. Quote Public Information Statement National Weather Service Wilmington OH 746 PM EDT Sun Jul 17 2022 ...PRELIMINARY STORM SURVEY SCHEDULED FOR PICKAWAY AND FAIRFIELD COUNTY OHIO... Due to recent damage reports across our area, the National Weather Service office in Wilmington OH will conduct a storm survey today in coordination with Pickaway and Fairfield County Emergency Management. The survey is in relation to a few thunderstorms that moved through the area earlier today. Tree and structural damage in between Circleville and Kingston will be investigated to determine if a tornado touched down briefly in this area. Additional tree damage was reported southeast of Stoutsville. A final assessment including results of the survey are expected to be completed and transmitted via a Public Information Statement by Monday evening. The storm survey information will also be available on our website at http://www.weather.gov/iln Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 Looking like some really good mcs potential this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 Heavy rain is here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 18, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 18, 2022 Might be some strong winds with these storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 18, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 18, 2022 Quite the low-shear summer-like squall moving into S IL/W KY. Includes a possible qlcs tornado. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 5 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: I'm sure heat is fine as long as there's enough rain. But I'd imagine large-scale farmers have an irrigation system in place in case of extreme droughts. Ya know, because the Dust Bowl and all I have a feeling @SoDakFarmer would know more. Irrigation is good as long as you start before you need it. It will never catch up if you wait until it's dry. I don't have any irrigation as it's not very popular around here. Get more into Nebraska and you will find more. But too much heat regardless of moisture isn't good for corn because it messes up the pollination. Example: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 So basically anything in the 100+ range isn't super good for corn. The plant will grow like gangbusters because it loves heat and humidity, especially if there's adequate moisture. Woooo....I contributed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 18, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 18, 2022 (edited) 7 minutes ago, SoDakFarmer said: So basically anything in the 100+ range isn't super good for corn. The plant will grow like gangbusters because it loves heat and humidity, especially if there's adequate moisture. Woooo....I contributed! Hey... any observation or forecast or even opinion (to an extent) is a contribution. You've contributed before, but you're an expert on this Edited July 18, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 18, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 18, 2022 Small squall crossing from Canada to Minnesota, forcing a relatively unexpected severe watch for Minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted July 18, 2022 Moderators Share Posted July 18, 2022 A brief pop-in to report my 1.8" of welcome rain over the last 36 hours. And if anyone else was wondering why/how heat affect corn pollination, here's an explanation.... https://www.agry.purdue.edu/ext/corn/pubs/corn-07.htm Hoping the corn belt gets some relief. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 18, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 18, 2022 (edited) Interesting morning sounding at Las Vegas valid for 5am their time. No nocturnal inversion, but instead a dry and extremely steep near-surface lapse rates with very strong low-level winds... looks like 40 knots just below 1km. Not sure what's going on there. I really, really, really doubt that they just so happened to capture a heat burst on a scheduled balloon launch. Edited July 18, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 18, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 18, 2022 (edited) Amazing Edited July 18, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 18, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 18, 2022 Crazy strong trough for July is about to kick off 3-days of severe weather before another ring of fire kicks off. Will make a new thread for the next ring of fire. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 (edited) 3 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Amazing Why hello potential for severe wx, Looks like lots of chances for the OV coming, could get one of those patterns were it's just a conveyor belt of low pressure systems riding the ridge. That would be FUN Edited July 18, 2022 by Neoncyclone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 Got a nice unexpected downpour around 2pm today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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