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July 1-21, 2022 | Ring of Fire/MCS Outbreak Sequence


ClicheVortex2014

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  • Meteorologist
11 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said:

Found a Met job there? 

I wish. My retired parents want to move and since I can't afford my own place, I'm not gonna hold them back from moving to where they wanna go.

I'm still waiting to hear back from NWS vacancies that closed 10 days ago. I got close to getting a job with NWS Memphis but fell short. Hopefully it won't be much longer. If any of the offices want to hear more from me, I'm expecting that to happen in about a week or so.

Regardless, I'm gonna be looking into full-time jobs wherever and for whatever job because I need to move on. If I stay with that job for 2 months before I get a job in my field, amazing. If not, I need to move on. The job search has gone on far longer than I expected.

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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12 minutes ago, Bman10 said:

That was some of the heaviest rain I’ve ever driven in early this morning on i75 near Middletown. Crazy. 

Yeah there was some serious ponding on the roads when I was out earlier. Was kinda surprised because it doesn't feel like we've had that much rain, but I did see the rainfall rate earlier. 

Definitely a good event to bust however close we were to being in a drought.

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West of Muncie IN getting hit hard.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
549 PM EDT Sun Jul 17 2022

The National Weather Service in Indianapolis has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Northeastern Hamilton County in central Indiana...
  Central Madison County in central Indiana...
  Southeastern Tipton County in central Indiana...
  Southern Delaware County in east central Indiana...
  Northwestern Henry County in east central Indiana...

* Until 900 PM EDT.

* At 549 PM EDT, the public reported thunderstorms producing heavy
  rain across the warned area. Between 3 and 6.5 inches of rain have
  fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible
  in the warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring.

  HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
           producing flash flooding.

  SOURCE...Public reported.

  IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
           urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Muncie, Anderson, Noblesville, Alexandria, Yorktown, Cicero,
  Chesterfield, Lapel, Edgewood, Frankton, Arcadia, Daleville,
  Selma, Atlanta, Country Club Heights, Woodlawn Heights, River
  Forest, Ball State University and Prairie Creek Reservoir.

 

 

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
532 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 PM     HEAVY RAIN       EDGEWOOD                40.10N 85.74W
07/17/2022  E6.00 INCH       MADISON            IN   PUBLIC

 

Quote
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
532 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNE COUNTRY CLUB HEIG 40.15N 85.67W
07/17/2022  E6.00 INCH       MADISON            IN   PUBLIC

 

 

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Saw a screenshot of this AFD for Wednesday on Twitter... I was like damn, that's insanely well-detailed. Since Ohio is in the main threat region, and Cleveland is closer to the low, I assumed it was a CLE AFD. I went to school with someone that works at CLE now... his last two years were my first two years. He would give 'briefings' in the OUCAMS meetings and they were ridiculous. He was a member on AmericanWx back in the day and he was actually the first person I met at OU because of that. So I thought it might be him. I checked, and sure enough, it was him.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Mid-level height rises (500mb 30m/12hr) on Tuesday along with a
surface ridge of high pressure extending from the southeast into the
local area will minimize precipitation chances Tuesday. A strong
upper-level trough moves east across the upper Midwest to Lake
Superior by Wednesday morning. The associated ~995 mb low will be
located over Lake Superior Wednesday morning with the cold front
extending south across Lake Michigan towards the mid- Mississippi
Valley, and the warm front extending east across Ontario, firmly
placing the local area in the warm sector on Wednesday. Strong
southwest flow develops downstream this system, advecting high theta-
e air into the local region through Wednesday afternoon/evening. A
corridor of surface dew points in the low to mid 70s will contribute
to moderate to potentially high instability within the warm sector
on Wednesday, though should remain capped through much of the day
Wednesday due to high 850mb temperatures of 20-22 C. Height falls
(30-50m/12hr) associated with the upper-level trough will erode away
at the daytime cap resulting in initial convective initiation ahead
of the approaching cold front Wednesday night. Moderate deep layer
shear (30-35 kts) should support organized severe convection with
thunderstorms that develop Wednesday evening. Early indications
point towards discrete cells initially (supporting all severe
weather hazards) before growing upscale.

 

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0523
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
546 PM EDT Sun Jul 17 2022

Areas affected...Lower Ohio Valley into Southern MO/Northern AR...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 172145Z - 180300Z

SUMMARY...Narrow streaks of enhanced rainfall totals (2-3.5") with
intense sub-hourly bursts along ahead of deep-layer trof/cold
front pose isolated flash flooding concerns

DISCUSSION...Broad synoptic trof across Lower Lake Michigan has
strong shortwave lobes rotating along/through presenting as an
elongated trof within GOES-WV back across the Bootheel of MO and
Arkansas.  The current amplifying vort appears to be pivoting
across central IND with effective confluent WAA wing extending
across Central OH with effective cold front wing back SW.  Strong
upstream 90 kt jet over MN is helping to dig shortwave over IA/WI
with 70 kt jet streak amplifying over N IND presenting highly
favorable right entrance ascent dynamics across the length of the
Lower Ohio River Valley this afternoon into late evening.  
Moisture stream though the Mississippi and Southern Plains becomes
highly confluent and increased deep moisture source to over 2.25"
total PWats in the Valley.  With the strong synoptic forcing,
cloud cover/debris has limited insolation, limiting overall
convective potential, with exception to the edges of synoptic
influence, in S MO/N AR and portion of W KY where instability
increased to 2500-3000 J/kg, along the front. 

Still, limited instability (500-1000) along ahead of the cold
front/5H shear axis in S IND/S IL will support some strong
thunderstorm updrafts along maximized convergence near/along the
front.  These cells will be capable of short intense burst of
highly efficient warm cloud processes with HRRR 15-min
rates/totals of 1.25".  Given the high stream-wise shear within
the mid-levels, small vorticity centers will aid localized
convergence and support narrow lines of updrafts capable of
short-term training and streaks of 2-3.5" totals in 2-3hr periods
resulting in possible localized flash flooding.

A delicate balance is at play, where further north and east along
the axis, instability is less, but forcing is stronger with
potential for greater duration but lesser rates.  Further south
and west, higher instability will support higher rainfall
production, but with faster cell motions may limit duration, as
well as drier ground conditions/higher FFG. As such flash flooding
is considered possible throughout the length of the upper level
trof, but increases further northeast along the axis.

Gallina

 

 

mcd0523.gif

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ILN wind damage report near Circleville that says 1 injury and a possible tornado.

Quote
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
435 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0404 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S CIRCLEVILLE         39.54N 82.93W
07/17/2022                   PICKAWAY           OH   911 CALL CENTER

            *** 1 INJ *** ROOF BLOWN OFF HOME. CAMPER TIPPED OVER
            INJURING SOMEBODY INSIDE. POSSIBLE TORNADO. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR - ONE MINUTE BEFORE CALL CAME IN.

 

 

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36 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

ILN wind damage report near Circleville that says 1 injury and a possible tornado.

 

Survey officially planned.

Quote
Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
746 PM EDT Sun Jul 17 2022

...PRELIMINARY STORM SURVEY SCHEDULED FOR PICKAWAY AND FAIRFIELD
COUNTY OHIO...

Due to recent damage reports across our area, the National 
Weather Service office in Wilmington OH will conduct a storm 
survey today in coordination with Pickaway and Fairfield County 
Emergency Management. The survey is in relation to a few 
thunderstorms that moved through the area earlier today.

Tree and structural damage in between Circleville and Kingston  
will be investigated to determine if a tornado touched down 
briefly in this area. Additional tree damage was reported 
southeast of Stoutsville. 

A final assessment including results of the survey are expected 
to be completed and transmitted via a Public Information Statement
by Monday evening.

The storm survey information will also be available on our 
website at http://www.weather.gov/iln

 

 

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5 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

I'm sure heat is fine as long as there's enough rain. But I'd imagine large-scale farmers have an irrigation system in place in case of extreme droughts. Ya know, because the Dust Bowl and all

I have a feeling @SoDakFarmer would know more.

Irrigation is good as long as you start before you need it.  It will never catch up if you wait until it's dry.  I don't have any irrigation as it's not very popular around here.  Get more into Nebraska and you will find more.

But too much heat regardless of moisture isn't good for corn because it messes up the pollination. 

Example: 

Pollination.png

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So basically anything in the 100+ range isn't super good for corn.  The plant will grow like gangbusters because it loves heat and humidity, especially if there's adequate moisture. 

 

Woooo....I contributed!

 

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7 minutes ago, SoDakFarmer said:

So basically anything in the 100+ range isn't super good for corn.  The plant will grow like gangbusters because it loves heat and humidity, especially if there's adequate moisture. 

 

Woooo....I contributed!

 

Hey... any observation or forecast or even opinion (to an extent) is a contribution. You've contributed before, but you're an expert on this

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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A brief pop-in to report my 1.8" of welcome rain over the last 36 hours.

 

And if anyone else was wondering why/how heat affect corn pollination, here's an explanation....

https://www.agry.purdue.edu/ext/corn/pubs/corn-07.htm

Hoping the corn belt gets some relief.

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Interesting morning sounding at Las Vegas valid for 5am their time. No nocturnal inversion, but instead a dry and extremely steep near-surface lapse rates with very strong low-level winds... looks like 40 knots just below 1km. Not sure what's going on there. I really, really, really doubt that they just so happened to capture a heat burst on a scheduled balloon launch.

image.thumb.png.e4861e0e2672d0216a79fbcafd3e49c6.png

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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  • The title was changed to July 1-21, 2022 | Ring of Fire/MCS Outbreak Sequence
3 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Amazing

floop-gfs-2022071812.500wh.conus.gif

floop-gfs-2022071812.ehi03.conus.gif

Why hello potential for severe wx, Looks like lots of chances for the OV coming, could get one of those patterns were it's just a conveyor belt of low pressure systems riding the ridge. That would be FUN

Edited by Neoncyclone
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