Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 17, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 17, 2022 To think that this was a marginal risk prior to the 20z update 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 (edited) 3 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: To think that this was a marginal risk prior to the 20z update https://media1.giphy.com/media/j9djzcMmzg8ow/200.gif Edited July 17, 2022 by Neoncyclone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 17, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 17, 2022 Really nasty complex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 (edited) Man, it's always crazy to see convection that looks like it should be upscale enough to turn into a big ol' MCS yet sometimes it tries so hard to hold onto that super cellular shape/embedded supercells, sometimes an MCS goes from upscale to breaking up into semi-discrete storm mode. Not really sure what dictates whether an MCS stays upscale or clears out for discrete/semi-discrete mode, all I know is that I rarely ever see it happen, usually once an MCS always an MCS (until eventual death) Edited July 17, 2022 by Neoncyclone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 looks like it has become mostly a downdraft of a large storm system well guys. I was just out there on I-80, that is, previously this week. I drove 1000 miles to Ohio. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 17, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 17, 2022 Really doesn't matter the time of year, a trough like this would suggest possibly significant severe weather 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 Couple of slight risk areas added on new day 1. Quote DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2022 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OZARKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ..SUMMARY SCATTERED AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT A LARGE AREA FROM THE OZARKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER, AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA. ..MO/AR EASTWARD ACROSS KY AND VICINITY STORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING FROM NORTHERN MO INTO SOUTHERN IL, AIDED BY SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB WINDS OVER 30 KT AND AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OH VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE A BIT ELEVATED, BUT COULD PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW. LATER IN THE DAY, HEATING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN MO WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED STORMS AFTER 21Z, AND THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS AS THEY EXPAND SOUTHWARD ACROSS AR DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. OTHER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY AS 2000-2500 J/KG MUCAPE DEVELOPS. OUTFLOWS FROM EARLY DAY CONVECTION MAY PLAY A ROLE IN POSITIONING THESE DIURNAL STORMS, BUT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COULD FAVOR A BRIEF TORNADO. ..SOUTHERN OH...NORTHEAST KY...WV AND WESTERN VA/MD A LEADING DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE OH/KY/WV AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN INCREASING MEAN WIND SPEEDS ALOFT. THIS REGION WILL BE WITHIN THE 850 MB THETA-E PLUME, AND STRONG HEATING WILL DEVELOP OVER KY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN OH AND NORTHERN KY AFTER 18Z, WITHIN A DIFFUSE WARM ADVECTION ZONE, WITH MODELS SUGGESTING AN EVENTUAL LINE OF STORMS WITH STRONG OUTFLOW POTENTIAL. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND MUCAPE OVER 2000 J/KG MAY SUPPORT A FORWARD-PROPAGATING SEVERE-WIND THREAT, DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. ..SOUTHWEST MT AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WA DURING THE DAY, WITH NEUTRAL HEIGHT TENDENCIES FARTHER EAST INTO MT. MIDLEVEL WESTERLIES OF 40-50 KT WILL EXIST OVER ID AND WESTERN MT, AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN NV INTO MT. AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES UNCAPPED AFTER 21Z, SCATTERED HIGH-BASED STORMS WILL FORM OVER SOUTHWEST MT, AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL MT THROUGH 00Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MINIMAL INSTABILITY, BUT LONG HODOGRAPHS MAY FAVOR A FEW LONGER-LIVED STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS, GIVEN INVERTED-V PROFILES. ..FAR NORTHWEST MN AND NORTHEAST ND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH 00Z, WITH GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS THEREAFTER AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE ROUNDS THE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN SK AND MB. WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH LATE IN THE DAY, WITH STRONG HEATING OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. DEWPOINTS IN THE 65-70 F RANGE APPEAR LIKELY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THE RED RIVER, WITH MINIMAL CAPPING. SEVERAL CAMS SUGGEST AT LEAST ISOLATED CELLS WILL FORM AFTER 22Z WITHIN THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS, AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH 70+ KT HIGH-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW CREATING LONG/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS. ..JEWELL.. 07/17/2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 Some pretty good thunderstorms tonight finally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 Glad we are finally back. Had some really loud storms around 5am this morning and again after 8am. Pretty amazing how loud that night thunder can get. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 17, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 17, 2022 (edited) This is insane. The only way you can tell which is which is from the winds. Good ol' geography. Edited July 17, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 9 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: This is insane. The only way you can tell which is which is from the winds. Good ol' geography. yeah, what? GFS says the 850mb temp will be 24C in England when the average surface temperature may be under 24C. Hence the 41 C surface temp at London. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 Quote Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0519 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1235 PM EDT Sun Jul 17 2022 Areas affected...Upper Ohio River Valley Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 171630Z - 172230Z SUMMARY...Approaching heavy showers and thunderstorms will strengthen this afternoon, resulting in excessive rainfall rates >1.5"/hr. Flash flooding is possible, particularly in urbanized communities, low lying spots, and poor drainage areas. DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery depicts a swath of showers and thunderstorms moving northeast towards western PA, western WV, and new convection developing in eastern KY. A robust 500mb trough is tracking through the Great Lakes this morning while a surface warm front lifts north through the Ohio Valley and into the northern Mid-Atlantic. Morning soundings do show rich atmospheric moisture available and sufficient instability already in place. The 12Z ILN sounding showed PWs up to 1.94" and MLCAPE >1,200 J/kg. RH values between the low-to-mid levels averaged out at 85%. The main reason for lesser rainfall rates thus far is residency time as 850-300mb mean flow has been 20-25 kts, keeping most cells moving and not training over some areas for the time being. Rates have also been manageable for the most part due to extensive cloud cover that is helping to limit destabilizing the atmosphere early on. This should change around midday and into the afternoon hours though. Farther west, thunderstorms tracking north of the Ohio-Mississippi River Confluence and across east-central IN will push east and track into south-central OH and northern KY over the next couple hours. CAMs show a strengthening 850mb jet across southern OH throughout the afternoon (up to 35-40 kts) as the 500mb trough deepens over the Lower Great Lakes. This will result in a surge in PWs, rising up to 2" by 20-22Z around Pittsburgh. These PWs are above the 90th climatological percentile for much of eastern OH and western PA. MLCAPE will rise as well, eventually hovering around 1,500 J/kg with higher values present in the more southern portion of the highlighted area. In addition to the increasing moisture content and instability aloft, soil moisture is gradually rising, especially in southwest PA where early morning thunderstorms did result in locally heavy rainfall. The combination of the accelerating 850mb jet & rise in moisture directed into higher terrain could also lead to localized orographic enhancement. Farther south, towards southern WV and eastern KY, there is stronger surface based heating that will result in a more unstable environment, even though the best moisture plume will be farther north. The highlighted area could see storms contain rainfall rates >1.5"/hr, topping out around 2"/hr in the most intense activity. 1-hr FFGs are lowest in east-central OH, southwest PA near the Pittsburgh metro, and into central WV. Mullinax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 17, 2022 Moderators Share Posted July 17, 2022 (edited) Question for the members in the middle of the country. How does weeks of temps over 100F affect crops, like corn in particular. Corn does ok in Mexico, but not sure it’s that hot given the elevation. asking cause it seems like TX north to SD is forever over 100 as a high. Edited July 17, 2022 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 17, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 17, 2022 (edited) 9 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Question for the members in the middle of the country. How does weeks of temps over 100F affect crops, like corn in particular. Corn does ok in Mexico, but not sure it’s that hot given the elevation. asking cause it seems like TX north to SD is forever over 100 as a high. I'm sure heat is fine as long as there's enough rain. But I'd imagine large-scale farmers have an irrigation system in place in case of extreme droughts. Ya know, because the Dust Bowl and all I have a feeling @SoDakFarmer would know more. Edited July 17, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 (edited) So much for our rainy day here. Local mets said 1-2" possible throughout the entire day. Central Ohio been stealing the show all day. Although some showers finally starting to make their way north. Sucks. Been gloomy all day. Edited July 17, 2022 by NWOhioChaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i70split Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 Corn around here, central Indiana, got in late this year and a lot l see is just starting to tassel The high temperatures are bad for the pollination process and can prevent the ears from fully filling in. But I think our current drought condition is the bigger problem at the moment. My family's crops in Western Illinois have gotten rain when we've really needed it so looks pretty good over there near the Illinois River at the moment. We did get some corn flattered by thunderstorm winds, but luckily no real hail damage this year (so far) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 FWIW 18z NAM starting to show the storms for Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 17, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 17, 2022 Decent parameters ahead of the front. I am cautious because this is long-range NAM. Shear is strong enough that we should get a slight risk assuming instability isn't abysmal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 (edited) Of course NW Ohio is out of the running even before we can get it dialed in...still watching. Edited July 17, 2022 by NWOhioChaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 17, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 17, 2022 (edited) Crazy NW flow potential over the next week or so Also... check out the literal PV in Alaska. Wild for July. I'm gonna miss the prospect for NW flow events but I'll be trading it in for even more of a year-round severe weather climatology. I'm gonna be about half way between Nashville and Knoxville. Edited July 17, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 2 hours ago, snowlover2 said: Glad we are finally back. Had some really loud storms around 5am this morning and again after 8am. Pretty amazing how loud that night thunder can get. Yea was a loud night for sure... luckily I was off today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted July 17, 2022 Admin Share Posted July 17, 2022 1 hour ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Crazy NW flow potential over the next week or so Also... check out the literal PV in Alaska. Wild for July. I'm gonna miss the prospect for NW flow events but I'll be trading it in for even more of a year-round severe weather climatology. I'm gonna be about half way between Nashville and Knoxville. When you moving to TN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 17, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 17, 2022 Just now, Uscg Ast said: When you moving to TN? Mid-August 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted July 17, 2022 Admin Share Posted July 17, 2022 Just now, ClicheVortex2014 said: Mid-August Found a Met job there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now