Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 16, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 16, 2022 26 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: 0z HRRR And now I'm almost worried that this is gonna exacerbate the possible upcoming major heat wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 16, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 16, 2022 Insane sounding up in Canada. 2600 cape, 100 knot upper-level jet, northeasterly surface winds with westerly upper level winds. Absurd. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 16, 2022 Share Posted July 16, 2022 And then there's the 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 16, 2022 Share Posted July 16, 2022 0z 3K NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 16, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 16, 2022 (edited) A little personal news: since I lack a job sufficient for owning an apartment right now, and my parents are trying to get out of Southwest Ohio, I'll be moving to somewhere in the west half of Tennessee within the next 2 months. I don't want to go, but I don't have a choice right now. I'm waiting to hear back from the 5 NWS vacancies I applied for in early July... hopefully one of them works out. For the first time, I'm pretty sure I was a top option for NWS Memphis last month. Edited July 16, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted July 16, 2022 Share Posted July 16, 2022 2 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Insane sounding up in Canada. 2600 cape, 100 knot upper-level jet, northeasterly surface winds with westerly upper level winds. Absurd. That's an incredible sounding wow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bman10 Posted July 16, 2022 Share Posted July 16, 2022 10 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: A little personal news: since I lack a job sufficient for owning an apartment right now, and my parents are trying to get out of Southwest Ohio, I'll be moving to somewhere in the west half of Tennessee within the next 2 months. I don't want to go, but I don't have a choice right now. I'm waiting to hear back from the 5 NWS vacancies I applied for in early July... hopefully one of them works out. For the first time, I'm pretty sure I was a top option for NWS Memphis last month. Still have my fingers crossed for you buddy. ❤️👍 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 16, 2022 Share Posted July 16, 2022 ILN latest for tomorrow heavy rain. Also a mention of concern for Wednesday due to significant bulk shear. Quote AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 339 PM EDT Sat Jul 16 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A slow-moving area of low pressure will approach the region on Sunday and then track from central Indiana to Lake Erie Sunday night into Monday. This system will interact with a very moist airmass to produce showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build back into the area by Tuesday. Temperatures will quickly rise back to above normal readings into midweek until a cold front moves through Wednesday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... A warm front will extend into the region this evening. Some weak convergence near the boundary may produce a shower or storm, mainly near the I-70 corridor. For the overnight period, the first in a series of embedded mid level disturbances will rotate east/southeast toward northwest Ohio. Deep moisture will increase ahead of this feature as a low level moist transport develops in association with a low level jet. This will increase the chances for showers and a few thunderstorms as we head toward morning, especially for our northwest zones. Cloud will increase and thicken. Lows will range from the upper 60s to the lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A series of mid level disturbances will carve out a mid level trough across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Sunday into Sunday night. These disturbances, associated with periods of low level moist ascent in association with a low level jet, will increase the chances for showers and embedded thunderstorms. Pwats are still forecast to reach 2"+ with this system. Instability overall should stay in the weak category given the increase in clouds and rain. However, there is a chance that locations across our southeast zones may be able to bump up into the low end moderate if enough solar insolation can be realized before pcpn arrives. Overall, the main hazard Sunday into Sunday night will be the threat for heavy rainfall. Most soundings will exhibit a "skinny CAPE" appearance, indicative of a very moist, tropical-like airmass. However, the southeast may be able to become a little "fatter" CAPE wise, and with pcpn loading, we may end up with a low strong/severe wind risk. Decided to leave the isolated strong/severe threat out of the HWO for now, allowing another iteration of convective allowing models to see if the southeast will able to obtain the needed instability. Otherwise, will continue with the heavy rain threat in the HWO which may lead to some flooding issues. Temperatures will vary on Sunday, dependent on timing of pcpn. Highs should range peak into the upper 70s most locations with the southeast perhaps warming into the lower/mid 80s. Lows Sunday night will fall into the mid and upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Low pressure will shift northeasterly toward New England on Monday while associated rain showers and embedded thunderstorms decrease from west to east. This will leave the Ohio Valley in a mid-level northerly flow regime on Tuesday as strong ridging begins to build east from the central plains. Surface high pressure allows for relatively light southwesterly flow. Therefore Tuesday will be warm and dry as high temperatures reach into the mid to upper 80s. Southwesterly surface gradient strengthens on Wednesday as a quick- moving shortwave moves east into the Great Lakes. Depending on mesoscale factors along with timing of the associated frontal system, decent forcing along with moderate instability will provide a good chance of thunderstorms from Wednesday afternoon through the evening hours. There is considerable uncertainty in the details at this time, so have opted to hold PoPs down a bit for now. More concerning is the potential for seasonally significant bulk shear (speed and directional shear) associated with the shortwave. Have left severe threat out of the Hazardous Weather Outlook for now, but this will be monitored closely as details emerge over the coming days. High temperatures on Wednesday look likely to top out in the upper 80s north to lower 90s south. This could lift heat indices to near or just above heat advisory levels. A relatively quiet period follows from Thursday through the start of the weekend. Temperatures will start near normal on Thursday, increasing to above normal July levels again by Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted July 16, 2022 Moderators Share Posted July 16, 2022 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 314 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 Warm and humid conditions will linger tonight as a warm front remains draped across central Illinois. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop overnight, with a few strong to severe storms possible late, for areas toward Jacksonville to Springfield. Sunday looks to be a wet and cooler day for much of the area, with locally heavy rain possible with any thunderstorms south of I-72. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 Main concerns in the short term are timing and coverage of storms, especially late tonight when severe potential will increase. Illinois is in the northern periphery of the Plains heat ridge, putting us near the ring of fire. The airmass this afternoon appears to be fairly capped with CIN around 100 J/kg in most of the area. Visible satellite is showing a few cumulus fields starting to bubble up, but no towering CU has been able to develop yet. A complex of showers approaching from N Missouri is on a weakening trend as it approaches the Mississippi River. Despite the cap in our area, high resolution guidance indicate that some isolated storms could still develop late this afternoon as hit convective temp below the inversion. Most areas should be dry through sunset however, and possibly mid-evening. Storm chances ramp up after midnight, as a shortwave currently in NE Nebraska rolls over the ridge into western Illinois. Aided by a moderate low level jet, elevated instability, and the presence of a stationary front, the complex of storms could produce some marginally severe storms late tonight in our SW CWA. Wind damage will be the primary hazard as the complex becomes outflow dominant, but large hail could still occur. The arrival of that complex will set the stage for a rainy/stormy and cooler Sunday for the southern 2/3rds of our CWA. WPC continues to indicate Slight and Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall for our southern CWA Sunday/Sun Night. PWAT values look to climb near 2", helping to fuel some intense rainfall rates at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 16, 2022 Share Posted July 16, 2022 Marginal risk added from IL to W OH for tonight. Quote Across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys, severe weather potential is more unclear, but sizable mixed-layer CAPE (up to 2000+ J/kg) appears to be developing ahead of an evolving frontal wave across central Illinois into Indiana. As mid-level heights fall into this evening, models suggest that inhibition will weaken sufficiently to allow for the initiation of thunderstorms. Some of these could be accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 16, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 16, 2022 (edited) Certainly worth a marginal risk assuming convection in the area. This is model estimated for KDAY at 0z. Seasonably modest cape, but meaningful shear is only found above 500mb so that'll be good for some organization. Chance for strong storms, maybe a couple severe. Edited July 16, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 16, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 16, 2022 (edited) Impressive sounding in NE OH. Thermodynamically at least. Some pretty decent events in the analog set. Mostly for S MI/N IN/N OH. Edited July 16, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 17, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 17, 2022 (edited) Unique looking pattern over the Midwest. I think this all traces back to a MCS/MCV in the High/Northern Plains. Almost looks like a sheared-out tropical cyclone. Except 5x bigger. Edited July 17, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 Oh my!!! Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service North Platte NE 730 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 NEC041-170100- /O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0238.000000T0000Z-220717T0100Z/ Custer NE- 730 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL CUSTER COUNTY... At 730 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Broken Bow, moving southeast at 30 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR BERWYN. HAZARD...90 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail. SOURCE...Public. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Homes and businesses will have substantial roof and window damage. Expect extensive tree damage and power outages. Locations impacted include... Broken Bow and Berwyn. This includes Highway 2 between mile markers 274 and 288. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This storm has the potential to cause serious injury and significant property damage. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 4139 9980 4150 9958 4138 9940 4124 9971 TIME...MOT...LOC 0030Z 317DEG 25KT 4137 9962 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...90 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 Quote PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 727 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2022 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0725 PM TSTM WND GST BROKEN BOW 41.41N 99.64W 07/16/2022 M90 MPH CUSTER NE ASOS BROKEN BOW AIRPORT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 Another 90mph wind report. Quote PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 708 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2022 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0707 PM TSTM WND GST ANSELMO 41.62N 99.86W 07/16/2022 E90 MPH CUSTER NE LAW ENFORCEMENT EMERGENCY MANAGER SAID DEPUTIES ESTIMATED 90 MPH WINDS ALONG HIGHWAY 2. MULTIPLE TREES ARE DOWN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 17, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 17, 2022 Looking far away from the radar but this radar shot is in between the two 90 mph wind reports Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 17, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 17, 2022 (edited) Still warned for 90 mph winds. Definitely starting to see a bow develop... I might be surprised if 90 mph was the peak. Might see 100 mph once they formally organize and bow out. Edited July 17, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 Looks pretty stormy tomorrow with some possible training somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 17, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 17, 2022 (edited) For us in Ohio, this summer doesn't compare to 2012. It's been more humid but not as hot. But further south... Side note: 2020-2022 was a second-year Nina much like 2010-12. However... 2011-12 was a stronger Nina than 2020-21, but 2021-22 was a stronger Nina than 2011-12. 2021-22 also lasted several months longer than 2011-12. Edited July 17, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 0z HRRR for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 17, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 17, 2022 Wouldn't wanna take a chance being in that tornado warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 7 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Wouldn't wanna take a chance being in that tornado warning The rotation seems to be moving straight south. Maybe another strong rotation developing close to Kearney. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 Storm spotters reported a funnel cloud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 New tornado warning south of the current one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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