Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 10, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 10, 2022 (edited) 4 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Long night for the.... wind farms Edited July 10, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 10, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 10, 2022 Holy crap. Is this July or March with these storm motions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 10, 2022 Share Posted July 10, 2022 Great inflow notch and also high reflectivity for this late at night (944pm mountain time) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 10, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 10, 2022 10 minutes ago, Chinook said: Great inflow notch and also high reflectivity for this late at night (944pm mountain time) Would be a great, great time to have GGW radar. Shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 10, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 10, 2022 The convection in Montana is moving into far more unstable conditions in North Dakota Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 10, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 10, 2022 SPC calling out a radar hole in a MCD... love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 10, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 10, 2022 Warning in NE MT... severe storms moving at 75 mph. Quote BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Glasgow MT 1036 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2022 The National Weather Service in Glasgow has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Daniels County in northeastern Montana... Roosevelt County in northeastern Montana... Northeastern Valley County in northeastern Montana... Sheridan County in northeastern Montana... Northern McCone County in northeastern Montana... Northern Richland County in northeastern Montana... * Until 1130 PM MDT. * At 1036 PM MDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Richland to 6 miles east of Frazer, moving east at 75 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. * Locations impacted include... Wolf Point, Plentywood, Scobey, Poplar, Culbertson, Richland, Nashua, Brockton, Medicine Lake, Bainville, Froid, Westby, Flaxville, Archer, Port Of Raymond, Peerless, Port Of Whitetail, Lustre, Madoc and Bredette. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Large hail and damaging winds and continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 4794 10405 4794 10635 4900 10639 4900 10405 TIME...MOT...LOC 0436Z 254DEG 67KT 4885 10594 4804 10589 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN WIND THREAT...OBSERVED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted July 10, 2022 Share Posted July 10, 2022 Having been posting much as winter events are my thing, but you guys are awesome to follow. Thanks for the information. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 10, 2022 Share Posted July 10, 2022 Overnight MCS still going strong in MN this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 10, 2022 Share Posted July 10, 2022 Not really broken-hearted that I got moved out of the slight. Too wet already, and crops look too good for wind and/or hail. Just jinxed the rest of the summer I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 10, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 10, 2022 About as many damaging wind reports as you can get from a derecho in this area Derecho #5425 of 2022 HRRR poses some questions about later today. It's showing modest instability, mostly weak low-level winds until ~23z. Then you get this sounding in east-central MN. I think HRRR might be mixing too much because SPC says >2" diameter hail is possible. If there's enough instability for that, combined with the seasonably strong deep layer shear, there should be at least one really impressive supercell. We'll see what it can do with those low-level winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 10, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 10, 2022 Got a severe warning already back in east-central ND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 10, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 10, 2022 This is one of those days where HRRR doesn't know what's going on. 16z HRRR had nothing 30 minutes from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 10, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 10, 2022 18z HRRR has this round of severe weather dying out in a few hours. Another round kicks off a couple hours after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 10, 2022 Share Posted July 10, 2022 SPC dropped the 5% tornado area in MN on the 20z update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 10, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 10, 2022 No more 5% tornado probability. The early round of severe storms have weakened below severe limits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 10, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 10, 2022 (edited) Really complex situation with respect to instability vs. directional shear in Minnesota. There's a little bit of everything. Northwesterly winds, westerly, southwesterly, southerly, southeasterly. Edited July 10, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 11, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 11, 2022 NAM/HRRR completely fumbled the forecast today. Neither model had the early afternoon severe storms which turned out to kill the potential for later. Downgraded to marginal risk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 11, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 11, 2022 (edited) Apparently there was a severe tstorm warning in Alaska about an hour ago. 43 people possibly affected so... a pretty big deal. Edited July 11, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted July 11, 2022 Share Posted July 11, 2022 1 hour ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: NAM/HRRR completely fumbled the forecast today. Neither model had the early afternoon severe storms which turned out to kill the potential for later. Downgraded to marginal risk The atmosphere didn't destabilize nearly as aggressively as models forecasted as the MCS/Derecho last night moved through either, guessing that factored in with those early afternoons storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 11, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 11, 2022 58 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: The atmosphere didn't destabilize nearly as aggressively as models forecasted as the MCS/Derecho last night moved through either, guessing that factored in with those early afternoons storms Definitely didn't help that the storms developed several hours earlier than HRRR thought. Still no storms in Minnesota but there are some really nasty looking storms in western South Dakota Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 11, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 11, 2022 Widespread 110-120 winds less than 1k feet above ground 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 11, 2022 Share Posted July 11, 2022 Off to an early start today. Quote URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 459 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 540 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Iowa Northwest Illinois * Effective this Monday morning from 540 AM until 1100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A cluster of storms along/north of Interstate 80 may continue to pose a severe wind (and possibly some hail) risk across eastern Iowa toward the Quad Cities vicinity and north through the early morning hours. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west northwest of Cedar Rapids IA to 35 miles northeast of Moline IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 458... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27045. ...Guyer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 11, 2022 Share Posted July 11, 2022 Appears I'm in a marginal to slight risk today 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted July 11, 2022 Share Posted July 11, 2022 2 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: Appears I'm in a marginal to slight risk today Just on the fringe of slight myself. But not much in the way of juice up here though. Could get a nice pop up if clouds stay away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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