Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 8, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 8, 2022 (edited) 38 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said: I know y’all get jazzed for severe events but at this point I’ll take regular ol’ summer thunderstorms and rain once a week lol. Once a week in the summer? Shoot, we'd be in extreme drought by August. I get what you're saying though and I agree. I'll take any kind of thunderstorm but I don't want it every day and I don't want it once every week. Somewhere in between please 😄 Edited July 8, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 We have not had a decent thunderstorm pattern in years it seems. We just get an occasional good day but those have been few and far between 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 8, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 8, 2022 30 sigtor ingredient for Sunday. Pretty decent for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 8, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 8, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 8, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 8, 2022 Impressive looking cells from the state that usually gets below -30F every year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 9, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 9, 2022 Way out in fantasy range but here's 2022's first modeled 600dm ridge Nearly 120 degrees in Sioux Falls. Would be Cincinnati's first 100 degree day since 2012. But, again, this is at the very end of the run. 1 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted July 9, 2022 Share Posted July 9, 2022 1 hour ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Way out in fantasy range but here's 2022's first modeled 600dm ridge Nearly 120 degrees in Sioux Falls. Would be Cincinnati's first 100 degree day since 2012. But, again, this is at the very end of the run. Please no 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 9, 2022 Share Posted July 9, 2022 1 hour ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Way out in fantasy range but here's 2022's first modeled 600dm ridge Nearly 120 degrees in Sioux Falls. Would be Cincinnati's first 100 degree day since 2012. But, again, this is at the very end of the run. I think it's broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 9, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 9, 2022 (edited) 6 minutes ago, SoDakFarmer said: I think it's broken. I hope so, for you. But we're in a moderate La Nina so I won't be surprised if we see a 600dm ridge at some point this summer. Edited July 9, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 9, 2022 Share Posted July 9, 2022 6 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: I hope so, for you. But we're in a moderate La Nina so I won't be surprised if we see a 600dm ridge at some point this summer. Well it would dry us out in a hurry anyways! That would be a roll out of bed, make coffee, watch tv, take a nap, make more coffee, watch more tv and never get out of my pajamas kind of day. Screw that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted July 9, 2022 Admin Share Posted July 9, 2022 3 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Way out in fantasy range but here's 2022's first modeled 600dm ridge Nearly 120 degrees in Sioux Falls. Would be Cincinnati's first 100 degree day since 2012. But, again, this is at the very end of the run. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted July 9, 2022 Share Posted July 9, 2022 A hybrid 2012 isn't very fun, thank you very much. Mostly dry but with more humidity. We get another ridge like that, then upper Midwest steals the show(again) for severe weather potential. That ring of fire pattern helped Lower Great Lakes regain some of that soil moisture, sure. But we've had some near-record breaking dew dew points as a result. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 9, 2022 Share Posted July 9, 2022 (edited) lightning directly hit this radar and broke it. before that, some 92mph wind detected by base velocity edit: Quote ..REMARKS.. 1050 PM LIGHTNING 1 NE GLASGOW 48.21N 106.63W 07/08/2022 VALLEY MT NWS EMPLOYEE CORRECTS PREVIOUS LIGHTNING REPORT FROM 1 NE GLASGOW FOR SPELLING: WFO FORECASTERS OBSERVED LIGHTNING STRIKE OUR RADOME, RENDERING THE GGW RADAR INOPERABLE AT THE MOMENT. Edited July 9, 2022 by Chinook 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 9, 2022 Share Posted July 9, 2022 Enhanced area added to MT/ND. Quote Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Jul 09 2022 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL MT INTO WESTERN ND... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM CENTRAL AL INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN MS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected later this afternoon through tonight across Montana into North Dakota, with damaging winds and large hail likely. Occasional damaging gusts will also be possible this afternoon/evening across parts of Alabama and Mississippi. ...MT/ND late this afternoon through tonight... Similar to the previous two days, midlevel shortwave troughs will move around the northwest periphery of the Four Corners midlevel high, from the interior Northwest across MT to ND through tonight. Despite overnight convection, boundary-layer dewpoints remain in the mid 50s to near the higher terrain in west/southwest MT (somewhat higher dewpoints across eastern MT). Steep midlevel lapse rates will again be replenished from the southwest, which in concert with daytime heating, will result in MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg this afternoon/evening. Deep-layer vertical shear will be fairly strong, with long hodographs and effective bulk shear in excess of 45 kt. Much like yesterday, scattered thunderstorm development is expected near or just after 21z, over and immediately northeast of the mountains in southwest MT. Some of these storms could develop supercell structures with an attendant threat for large hail of 2+ inches in diameter. Later this evening, some upscale growth into one or more clusters is expected, with an increase in the threat for damaging winds of 75+ mph. Embedded supercells will remain possible, especially on the southern flank of the convection, as the cluster(s) move eastward across ND tonight. ...Southeast into TX this afternoon/evening... Downstream from a midlevel high centered near the Four Corners, a broad zone of cyclonic flow aloft persists from the MS Valley to the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas. Embedded perturbations within this cyclonic flow, enhanced by prior convection, will continue to move east-southeastward over the Southeast, as a surface cold front drifts slowly southward across VA/KY/TN/AR and north TX. Morning clouds/convection across north GA/northeast AL will produce weak outflow and differential heating zones that will drive afternoon thunderstorm development farther south and west from central AL into the Mid-South along the cold front. Hot afternoon temperatures of 95-100 F and boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 70s will boost MLCAPE to 3000 J/kg or greater, with thunderstorm development expected by early-mid afternoon. Convection will likely grow upscale into a couple of clusters/lines and spread southward through late afternoon/evening. Though flow aloft will be weak, the large buoyancy and DCAPE near 1000 J/kg will support occasional damaging downbursts. Farther east, the morning convection across GA may persist into the afternoon while spreading southeastward, and additional storms are expected to form along the differential heating zone across the Piedmont, and along the cold front moving southward into NC. Vertical shear will remain rather weak (slightly stronger along the front in NC), and thermodynamic profiles from GA into the Carolinas will not be quite as supportive of downbursts compared to MS/AL. Thus, isolated strong/damaging outflow winds will be possible with multicell clusters this afternoon from GA into NC. Strong surface heating (afternoon temperatures well above 100 F) and inverted-v profiles along the slow-moving front across north TX will support the threat for high-based thunderstorms with isolated severe outflow winds for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Dean.. 07/09/2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 9, 2022 Share Posted July 9, 2022 Developing drought conditions could get worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted July 9, 2022 Moderators Share Posted July 9, 2022 (edited) 4.5" here yesterday that should help the drought conditions in parts of IL Edited July 9, 2022 by Central Illinois 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 9, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 9, 2022 (edited) Nasty jet streak. 100 knots observed in Montana. Tonight and tomorrow is gonna be really active. Edited July 9, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 10, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 10, 2022 (edited) Kinda funny to have an enhanced risk this large, covering half of one state and, like, a third of another... yet only 330k people are under it. Dayton is 55 square miles, population of 137k. Enhanced risk is almost 1200x the size of Dayton, but population is 2.44x more I'm sure the numbers are even funnier if you use NYC or Chicago or LA but meh. Edited July 10, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 10, 2022 Share Posted July 10, 2022 Seeing that they say destructive winds possible, have to wonder if they go with a PDS severe thunderstorm watch. Quote Mesoscale Discussion 1431 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0712 PM CDT Sat Jul 09 2022 Areas affected...central and eastern Montana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 452... Valid 100012Z - 100315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 452 continues. SUMMARY...A substantial severe threat will evolve this evening across central and eastern Montana, with destructive winds and hail expected. A new watch is likely east of WW 452. DISCUSSION...Storms continue to increase in intensity and coverage over central MT, with several cells now exhibiting a rightward/eastward motion as of 00Z. As height falls with the shortwave trough continue this evening, low-level easterlies will increase, with 850 mb winds providing moist storm relative inflow. As this occurs, an MCS may eventually materialize, with a threat of wind-driven hail and damaging winds. Individual cells may also produce very large hail in excess of 2.00" diameter. The very steep lapse rates aloft combined with strong shear should maintain the severe threat beyond 06Z despite small boundary-layer inhibition from cooling, eventually entering ND later tonight. ..Jewell.. 07/10/2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 10, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 10, 2022 Just now, snowlover2 said: Seeing that they say destructive winds possible, have to wonder if they go with a PDS severe thunderstorm watch. With the way the past 8 months have gone, I bet this is gonna be another 20+ significant wind day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 10, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 10, 2022 (edited) FWIW, 18z NAM has a PDS TOR sounding in east-central MN tomorrow Notice the 80 knot upper level jet. That causes problems in the summer. Sounding in south-central MN Edited July 10, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 10, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 10, 2022 105 knot jet in north-central Montana Bismark is more balanced but still a dangerous sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 10, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 10, 2022 Severe warnings have become widespread. Unfortunately, GGW is down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 10, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 10, 2022 (edited) HRRR has PDS TOR soundings ahead of the supercells in Minnesota tomorrow. Might be looking at a July tornado outbreak Edited July 10, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 10, 2022 Share Posted July 10, 2022 Quote URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 453 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 730 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Montana Western North Dakota * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 730 PM until 400 AM MDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A line of intense thunderstorms over central Montana will track eastward across the watch area this evening and tonight. Much like last night, swaths of damaging winds and hail are expected. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 85 miles west southwest of Glasgow MT to 5 miles north of Garrison ND. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 451...WW 452... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26035. ...Hart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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