MotownWX Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 I was under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning, and not a drop. In fact the storm was nowhere near me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 tornado warning, Sandusky MI (near Lake Huron, not Sandusky OH) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 3000-4000 J/kg from Detroit to Indianapolis 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 some rotation near Toledo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 20, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 20, 2022 No changes to the slight risk other than cutting off the obvious parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 20, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 20, 2022 Model estimated sounding at KDAY shows no textbook convective inhibition but storms aren't firing. Shows some low and mid-level subsidence. Also shows a rather significant dry layer above 700mb which may be suppressing updrafts. The cold front is still quite a bit away but I'm growing pessimistic about anything developing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 20, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 20, 2022 (edited) 13 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Model estimated sounding at KDAY shows no textbook convective inhibition but storms aren't firing. Shows some low and mid-level subsidence. Also shows a rather significant dry layer above 700mb which may be suppressing updrafts. The cold front is still quite a bit away but I'm growing pessimistic about anything developing Worth noting, too, that the supercells that developed early were along a pre-frontal surface trough... not the cold front. Pretty easy to spot the cold front now and it's rapidly catching up to the surface trough. Edit: actually, I don't know what that secondary front is. Mesoanalysis does show lower dew points behind it. I don't think it's the actual cold front anymore because the part in northern Indiana is behind the main temp/dew point gradient. Either way, I think storms will be renewed as that feature moves southeast. Edited July 20, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hassaywx1223 Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 I’m in my pool and it’s been extremely breezy here today wonder if these storms get to firing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 20, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 20, 2022 Canadian weather service just said screw it let’s warn em all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotownWX Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 Oakland County (MI) split the uprights again. Missed to my north and south. You'd think at least one of those "showers and thunderstorms likely" forecasts I've been getting would give me something. But haven't seen rain IMBY beyond a few sprinkles for a few weeks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 Quote Mesoscale Discussion 1524 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022 Areas affected...northwestern Ohio Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477... Valid 202030Z - 202200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477 continues. SUMMARY...Severe risk has diminished in the short term, but may increase/expand southwestward across western Ohio over the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows the stronger storms which earlier crossed WW 477 now moving into western Ontario and western Lake Erie, as the cold front continues moving eastward across southeastern Michigan and northwestern Ohio. While no severe storms are ongoing on the U.S. side of the border at this time, latest HRRR runs continue to indicate potential for southwestward development of storms along the front, across western Ohio, over the next couple of hours -- including across the remaining Ohio portions of WW 477. ..Goss.. 07/20/2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 20, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 20, 2022 (edited) 5 minutes ago, MotownWX said: Oakland County (MI) split the uprights again. Missed to my north and south. You'd think at least one of those "showers and thunderstorms likely" forecasts I've been getting would give me something. But haven't seen rain IMBY beyond a few sprinkles for a few weeks now. Well, almost all of eastern Michigan got severe warnings today so "thunderstorms likely" was accurate for most Edited July 20, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotownWX Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 (edited) 3 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Well, almost all of eastern Michigan got severe warnings today so "thunderstorms likely" was accurate I'm not saying the forecast wasn't accurate for the wider area. What I'm saying is that I'm setting a personal record for my immediate area on missing those. Edited July 20, 2022 by MotownWX 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 20, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 20, 2022 (edited) 14 minutes ago, MotownWX said: I'm not saying the forecast wasn't accurate for the wider area. What I'm saying is that I'm setting a personal record for my immediate area on missing those. My bad. Gotcha. Yeah that's really disappointing. Everyone needs rain, much less a storm... it's been a sad summer. -- Stronger storms are getting going in NW OH Edited July 20, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 20, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 20, 2022 (edited) Yep no storms for us. Can't wait for the cold front to come through and possibly keep the high to 89 tomorrow Edit: never mind it's only 6pm. I don't know why it feels later than that. Edited July 20, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 small hook echo on non -severe cell at Tiffin. I could almost see this, but I might sweat too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 20, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 20, 2022 (edited) 20z ILN sounding. Impressive superadiabatic lapse rates in the lowest kilometer. Decent directional shear and low-level shear. Edited July 20, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeffro Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 Central Ohio out of it? I want to take the yak out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michelle Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, Jeffro said: Central Ohio out of it? I want to take the yak out. I don't think any of us are quite out of it yet except those in the NW corner. 😞 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeffro Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 Looking at latest hrrr, I think I’ll stay in 🙂 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, Jeffro said: Looking at latest hrrr, I think I’ll stay in 🙂 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 20, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 20, 2022 Got some hints of embedded supercells in there but especially the southern one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 20, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted July 20, 2022 Speak of the devil 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 Neither CLE or Wilmington give a great velocity view, but it looks like 2 areas of rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hassaywx1223 Posted July 20, 2022 Share Posted July 20, 2022 Coming into a favorable environment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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