Neoncyclone Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Stream of this storm, lightning is frequent so you can clearly see the base 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: Stream of this storm, lightning is frequent so you can clearly see the base There are small funnels, almost like satellites forming on the leading edge of the wall cloud 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 (edited) The radar is incredible I haven't seen anything like this radar presentation, super smooth transition from mess to embedded supercell Edited June 13, 2022 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bman10 Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 13, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 13, 2022 Just now, Bman10 said: Given the second day 2 outlook, sounds like they know SW OH is gonna get at least a day 1 slight risk. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 13, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 13, 2022 The end of the latest HRRR is... something. Shear doesn't look nearly as extreme so far, but this looks more like a state-wide event than earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 13, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 13, 2022 What a change from 24 hours ago for SW OH 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Had a decent wake low after that storm missed me last night. That was quite a doozy of a storm for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 ILN: This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon into tonight. Strong straight line winds are the main threat. Locally heavy rainfall is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 ILN: 13 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. Hot and humid conditions build in for the middle of the week with near record temperatures possible. Rain chances increase toward the end of the work week with a cool front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Some patchy shallow fog has developed over the area early this morning thanks to mostly clear skies, calm winds, and abundant low level moisture. Any fog will quickly mix out after sunrise. For today, the forecast is characterized by anomalously low predictability. MCSs may traverse the Ohio Valley as a warm front lifts into northern Ohio/southern Michigan and upper level ridging builds. However, despite this synotpic setup being generally favorable for MCS development, lack of consistent or clustered mesoscale guidance highlights the challenges in forecasting the potential MCS occurrence and track. The one area of fairly high predictability is the overall storm environment this afternoon. With the warm front north of the area, hot and humid conditions quickly develop after sunrise leading to a highly unstable atmosphere by noon (MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg). High amounts of DCAPE are also forecast which justifies strong downburst potential. Favorable thermodynamics overlap with 30 knot bulk northwesterly shear this afternoon/evening indicating potential storm organization. However, there has been no clear mesoscale guidance supporting high probabilities of storms occurring or ensemble clusters showing clear MCS paths. As of the early morning forecast, two periods are highlighted for the highest MCS potential. The first period is toward the later part of the afternoon and early evening across the entire area but especially eastern Indiana, and western/southwestern Ohio. Some guidance depicts MCS formation in Indiana quickly overspreading into Ohio and parts of northern Kentucky during the late afternoon. If this occurs, strong damaging winds would be the main threat along with some hail and tornado potential. This MCS would be of particular concern since the atmosphere would not have had time to stabilize yet. Locally heavy rainfall would also be a threat. The second timeframe for elevated MCS potential is the evening/overnight along and north of I-70. Storms may form along the warm front in southern Michigan late this afternoon before growing upscale and diving southeast into northern Ohio toward the higher instability airmass overnight. Strong winds would also be the main threat with this MCS along with some hail. Hopefully any nocturnal MCS wind threat would be moderated by a near surface stable layer. Can`t leave out the possibility for locally heavy rain. Please note this forecast will likely change and evolve today since the outlook is characterized by low predictability. Check back for updates through the day. If an MCS does form this afternoon, there is some high end potential for wind damage given the forecast environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Derecho is possible today imo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Storms in Iowa are in the classic spot this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mesoscale_convective_system 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 (edited) Should've known threat would shift considerably south. Should put us on the northern fringe of things again.. Edited June 13, 2022 by NWOhioChaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 The latest HRRR run is the first in the last 10 runs that doesn't show an MCS move across IN/OH in the evening. Possibly a hiccup run but we'll see on the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: The latest HRRR run is the first in the last 10 runs that doesn't show an MCS move across IN/OH in the evening. Possibly a hiccup run but we'll see on the next one. That run did not initialize correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Extremely unstable already👀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 31 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said: Should've known threat would shift considerably south. Should put us on the northern fringe of things again.. I think you’re still in for something in the overnight. This southern shift is a first wave kind of thing from what I’ve seen but will see how stuff shakes out today. Models are so terrible at picking up these events until they start occurring. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 (edited) There is clearly an MCV in MN atm so there's that. Edited June 13, 2022 by junior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincysnow Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Enhanced introduced: Spoiler Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0724 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...AND WESTERN OHIO.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Monday across parts of the northern Plains, and from portions of the Midwest into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Some of the winds could be significantly severe (75+ mph) across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley Monday afternoon/evening. ...Upper MS into Great Lakes region... A broad upper ridge remains over the southern US today, with the primary band of westerlies extending from the Dakotas eastward into the Great Lakes region. Early morning model guidance suggests a shortwave trough and associated 40-50 knot midlevel speed max is currently over IA. Scattered thunderstorms have been occurring in vicinity of this feature, along with a couple of MCVs noted in radar imagery. Ahead of this shortwave trough, a warm front is lifting northward across IA/IL/IN/OH. Dewpoints in the 70s and strong heating to the south of the front will yield high CAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg later today. Present indications are that either remnants of the ongoing convection over IA/MN or new storms will intensify by early afternoon over southern WI/northern IL and rapidly become severe. These storms will track along the retreating baroclinic zone across Lake MI and into portions of Lower MI, and northern IN/OH during the afternoon. It appears possible that a long-lived bowing MCS could result in a swath of considerable wind damage along this corridor. However, recent CAM solutions continue to vary on the details of the track. Have added an ENH area to address this threat. The ENH may need to be extended farther east in later outlooks as clarity in the evolution of the MCS becomes greater. Along with the damaging wind risk, the strongest cells may produce large hail and a few tornadoes. ...Dakotas... A surface low is forecast to deepen over eastern WY this afternoon while a cold front moves across the northern Rockies and high Plains. Thunderstorms are expected to form along the front by early evening over western SD/ND and track northeastward. Vertical shear profiles will be favorable for supercell storms capable of all hazards over portions of ND. Farther south, models suggest that storms that form will be behind the cold front, with hail being the main concern. ..Hart/Broyles.. 06/13/2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Sitting right on the edge of the hatched area for severe winds - No thanks 👎 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 42 minutes ago, junior said: There is clearly an MCV in MN atm so there's that. One in Iowa to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 1 minute ago, MesoscaleBanding said: Sitting right on the edge of the hatched area for severe winds - No thanks 👎 As much as I like a good storm the thought of potentially being without power is making me feel the same way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: As much as I like a good storm the thought of potentially being without power is making me feel the same way Yeah, no power with this Tues/Wed heat wave on the way would be pretty ugly 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Hrrr is just all over the place. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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