snowlover2 Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 Yikes!!! Baseballs and 70mph winds! Quote PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 528 PM MDT SUN JUN 12 2022 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0526 PM HAIL 2 NNW SAINT ONGE 44.58N 103.75W 06/12/2022 E2.75 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER ALSO MEASURED 70 MPH WIND GUST. LARGE BRANCHES ARE DOWN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 Double Yikes!!! 91mph winds! Quote PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 524 PM MDT SUN JUN 12 2022 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0515 PM TSTM WND GST 1 N SAINT ONGE 44.55N 103.72W 06/12/2022 M91 MPH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER WIND GUST MEASURED VIA UNL MOBILE MESONET IN RFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 12, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 12, 2022 (edited) Finally found an event to make a Facebook post about. Here's a copy that breaks it down into an easier way to digest for some. There really hasn't been much weather to talk about for Ohio until recently, but tomorrow's got some serious potential for damaging winds for some part of Ohio. Exactly which part is very uncertain, even though it's only 24 hours out. Extremely strong storms currently in the Plains will eventually develop into what's called a mesoscale convective system (MCS) and produce a swath of potentially high-end damaging winds through at least some of the overnight. The MCS will weaken as it moves into Iowa and basically just be a sort of convective-induced (technically by latent heat from very intense, long-lived storms) low pressure known as a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV). With very hot and humid conditions present from Illinois into Indiana, Ohio, and southern Michigan, the MCV will re-strengthen tomorrow morning and likely produce a potentially narrow swath of very damaging winds... talking 75+ mph winds in places. The questions that remain are: 1) When/where the MCS develops tonight 2) How fast it moves 3) How much the MCV slows, if it does, in the morning 4) How quick the new MCS develops tomorrow 5) How fast the new MCS moves 6) Where the instability (think of it as kind of a warm front) is #6 is important because MCSs typically like to follow instability/moisture gradients... so that'll tell us where it'll move, and where the threat will be greatest. As you can see, there's a lot going of variables that will change how tomorrow goes, and the models are notoriously bad at handling most of the above. Currently the bullseye appears to be on northern Indiana, southern Michigan, and northern Ohio. But all Ohio should be aware and prepare for power outages. Conditions will be extremely favorable for severe weather in Ohio regardless, including supercells and tornadoes. HOWEVER, it's looking very unlikely that storms can develop away from the MCS, which is a forcing mechanism on its own at this point. Additionally, there's a small but significant-enough layer of stable air above us that should keep convection from forming. I wouldn't consider this a concern right now, but it is worth a mention just in case. To make matters worse, a nasty heat wave is going to follow this severe weather. Southwest Ohio is looking at temperatures in the upper 90s with heat indices in the 105-110 degree range, maybe greater on Wednesday. So, if you like storms, this is one you want to sit out because you don't want to be caught without power in heat like this. The heat wave should end by this weekend. Edited June 12, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Finally found an event to make a Facebook post about. Here's a copy that breaks it down into an easier way to digest for some. There really hasn't been much weather to talk about for Ohio until recently, but tomorrow's got some serious potential for damaging winds for some part of Ohio. Exactly which part is very uncertain, even though it's only 24 hours out. Very serious storms currently in the Plains will eventually develop into what's called a mesoscale convective system (MCS) and produce a swath of very damaging winds through at least some of the overnight. The MCS will weaken as it moves into Iowa and basically just be a sort of convection-induced low pressure known as a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV). With very hot and humid conditions present from Illinois into Indiana, Ohio, and southern Michigan, the MCV will re-strengthen tomorrow morning and likely produce a potentially narrow swath of very damaging winds... talking 75+ mph winds in places. The questions that remain are: 1) When/where the MCS develops tonight 2) How fast it moves 3) How much the MCV slows, if it does, in the morning 4) How quick the new MCS develops tomorrow 5) How fast the new MCS moves 6) Where the instability (think of it as kind of a warm front) is #6 is important because MCSs typically like to follow instability/moisture gradients... so that'll tell us where it'll move, and where the threat will be greatest. As you can see, there's a lot going of variables that will change how tomorrow goes, and the models are notoriously bad at handling most of the above. Currently the bullseye appears to be on northern Indiana, southern Michigan, and northern Ohio. But all Ohio should be aware and prepare for power outages. Conditions will be extremely favorable for severe weather in Ohio regardless, including supercells and tornadoes. HOWEVER, it's looking very unlikely that storms can develop away from the MCS, which is a forcing mechanism on its own at this point. Additionally, there's a small but significant-enough layer of stable air above us that should keep convection from forming. I wouldn't consider this a concern right now, but it is worth a mention just in case. To make matters worse, a nasty heat wave is going to follow this severe weather. Southwest Ohio is looking at temperatures in the upper 90s with heat indices in the 105-110 degree range. So, if you like storms, this is one you want to sit out because you don't want to be caught without power in heat like this. The heat wave should end by this weekend. Where there is heat, MCSs will be right behind 😄 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 12, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, junior said: Where there is heat, MCSs will be right behind 😄 Seems parameters will be like something we haven't seen in a long time. Tomorrows 0z ILN sounding should be fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 (edited) Storm to the north missed us here but the anvil is present all the way down here. Edited June 12, 2022 by junior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Building tcu over. Think thunderstorms are about to explode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 13, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 13, 2022 (edited) Another Ohio mothership supercell. The hell? We went the entire Spring without anything nearly like this Edited June 13, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Tonight could get ugly. The parameters are very favorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 13, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 13, 2022 (edited) Quite the trend for tomorrow valid at 17z. Below is 12z, 18z, and 23z HRRR in that order I guess this is a bit misleading now that I think about it. The MCS in the Minneapolis area is different from the MCV in Wisconsin in the latter two. But there is a shift from 18z to 23z to the southeast. Also have those weird storms in NW IN. Edited June 13, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 13, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 13, 2022 Not really a surprising sounding given what we knew about the wind fields and the fact that it's June. But this is certainly a sounding favorable for supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 13, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 13, 2022 Looks like we have a legit 7600 sbcape sounding in LZK 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Wow 0z HRRR looking fiesty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 13, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 13, 2022 Wasn't expecting this much of a shift. The hell? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Wasn't expecting this much of a shift. The hell? And with all that instability to tap into. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 13, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 13, 2022 (edited) This run assumes the Plains convection doesn't develop into a well-organized MCS. Shear is also considerably weaker which is related to the lack of a MCV. I have trouble believing the MCS/MCV part. That said, effective shear is still in the 20's ahead of that cluster in S IN/SW OH. That's enough for a significant MCS given the amount of instability. Edited June 13, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Well this has me a bit concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Got to love this time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 (edited) The models are practically useless in a mcs pattern. Edited June 13, 2022 by StormfanaticInd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincysnow Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Wow 0z HRRR looking fiesty. 8 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Wasn't expecting this much of a shift. The hell? 4 minutes ago, OxfordOh_ said: Well this has me a bit concerned I feel like i just entered a winter storm thread and getting caught up 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 13, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 13, 2022 (edited) This would be amazing to experience as a fly in the wall but this is insanely dangerous for everyone Edited June 13, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 I wouldn't trust anything until the morning tbh, today looked like a decent day here in S IL but nothing convected. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 13, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: I wouldn't trust anything until the morning tbh, today looked like a decent day here in S IL but nothing convected. 100% agreed. I know I said there should be some big changes but that's dramatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 (edited) Just now, ClicheVortex2014 said: 100% agreed. I know I said there should be some big changes but that's dramatic. Silver lining is that the MCS does come through to the north just several hours later on this run Edited June 13, 2022 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 0z HRRR still has a cluster/ (MCS?) drop through MI into E OH. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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