June 11-24, 2022 | Northwest Flow Severe Weather/Ring of Fire

[Ingyball]

36 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Severe warning issued 35 miles ahead of the MCS. The warning expires in 50 mins but says the MCS is moving a 45 mph. Math is kinda awkward there. Sounds like they expect the MCS to make it to the end of the severe warning before the warning expires. Haven't noticed if that's a common thing... I always assumed it was normal to have the warning expire before the end of the warning. As usual, I'm not doubting NWS' training/knowledge, it's more about me apparently not noticing things before. Or there's just more to it than I know.

Edit: ooh, this is in ICT's CWA. @Ingyball?

Edit2: now that I do the math, the MCS will only be out of the CWA for 2 miles by the time the warning expires. So I'm sure it's more about seeing if it maintains intensity... if it does, then there'll be an overlapping warning before the current one expires. 

So this was a bit of a learning experience for me... out loud 😂 Wish I would've kept it to myself before I do the math but I can no longer delete my own posts. 😞 That saved me from myself more times than I wish to admit.

Our CWA starts where that southern warning started. The storm busted my forecast though, I wasn't expecting anything that far west, Topeka wasn't either. 

[FortySixAnd32]

1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

That sounding was as of 2 hours ago

I meant when is it supposed to happen? Sorry. And thanks in advance!! 

[ClicheVortex2014]

6 minutes ago, FortySixAnd32 said:

I meant when is it supposed to happen? Sorry. And thanks in advance!! 

Ah. Well, I don't think it'll continue to be a thing through the night in western Ohio. Should be focused on Indiana. Even so, there shouldn't be a severe or tornado threat. Everything's too marginal. Especially for your area.

Edited June 12, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Wild that NAM is still showing these kinds of parameters still at 48 hours

 

NW IN

[Chinook]

1 hour ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Insanely well-defined supercell but it looks outflow-dominant. Seems NWS/SPC knew that, even if a supercell maintained, it was likely it would be like that.

This is such a massive HP supercell. I think maybe the whole thing may have been 45 miles wide with 10-15 mile wide general rotation at some moments. I guess we will eventually find out the details of tornadoes it has produced.

[Chinook]

My severe weather pick in Snowlover2's contest for today is: Plattsburg. Now, there's a tornado warning

 

[ElectricStorm]

Might be a small chance that storm by the OK/KS border makes it to me but it looks to be slowly getting smaller/weaker. Not expecting it to get here but we'll see. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

All the CAMs (except 3km NAM) are showing a serious bow echo to impact at least N IN/NW Ohio on Monday. Other parts impacted are NE OH and/or SW OH. Not hard to believe there'll be a significant MCS, but  no one's a lock until the MCS is, like, 6 hours out.

Here's all the CAMs excluding 3km NAM

Edited June 12, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[snowlover2]

7 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

All the CAMs (except 3km NAM) are showing a serious bow echo to impact at least S MI/N IN/NW Ohio on Monday. Other parts impacted are NE OH and/or SW OH. Not hard to believe there'll be a significant MCS, but the locations impacted will no one's a lock until the MCS is, like, 6 hours out.

Correct me if i'm wrong but MCS's like moving toward the greater instability so it could turn more south than what's currently shown?

[ClicheVortex2014]

2 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Correct me if i'm wrong but MCS's like moving toward the greater instability so it could turn more south than what's currently shown?

They follow instability gradients so it'll depend on where that sets up. So what happens leading up to the development of the MCS will impact what happens with its path. That doesn't even take into consideration the issue of where/when the initial MCS develops and how quickly/if it develops a cold pool (which impacts its speed)

[snowlover2]

Slight risk added to IL/IN/KY on new day 1.

Quote

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1245 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2022  
  
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z  
  
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN  
MIDDLE ATLANTIC...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING  
WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. A FEW TORNADOES COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION. ISOLATED SEVERE MAY ALSO BE NOTED  
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MIDDLE  
ATLANTIC. WIND AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.  
   
..NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS  
  
UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS  
INTO THE MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROUGH  
SETTLES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WHILE THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST,  
APPRECIABLE HEIGHT FALLS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS  
SUNDAY. EVEN SO, A FEW SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT ACROSS WY  
TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL  
BE NOTED, ESPECIALLY LATE ACROSS MT/WY. THIS FLOW REGIME WILL PROVE  
FAVORABLE FOR LEE SURFACE CYCLONE OVER EASTERN WY, WITH A LEE TROUGH  
EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL COMPONENT  
WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG THE MT/WY BORDER AT LOWER  
ELEVATIONS AND THIS CORRIDOR WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A REGION FOR  
SUPERCELL INTENSIFICATION BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING WILL  
ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED SUPERCELLS SOUTH ALONG THE DRY LINE INTO  
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LEE SURFACE  
LOW WILL GET DISLODGED AND MOVE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL SD/NORTH-CENTRAL  
NE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION THAT  
DEVELOPS SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. AMPLE SHEAR/BUOYANCY WILL  
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND ALONG WITH HAIL/WIND, THERE APPEARS TO BE A  
GREATER TORNADO RISK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM NORTHERN  
WY INTO WESTERN SD.  
   
..LOWER OHIO VALLEY  
  
REMNANTS OF SATURDAY NIGHT SD CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE  
MID MO VALLEY BY THE START OF THE DAY1 PERIOD AS NORTHWESTERLY  
MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM, THERE  
APPEARS TO BE A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL LIKELY ENCOURAGE  
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY LATE MORNING.  
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGE OF STRONGER  
CAPPING, AND MODEST SHEAR/BUOYANCY SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED  
UPDRAFTS. WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY HOW THIS  
WILL ULTIMATELY EVOLVE, INCREASING SEVERE PROBABILITIES APPEARS  
WARRANTED GIVEN THE 40-50KT 500MB FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION. HREF  
MEMBERS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DIVERGENCE REGARDING THE EVOLUTION, BUT  
AMPLE HEATING AND THE PROSPECT FOR LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FAVOR  
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF GENERATING HAIL/WIND.  
   
..SOUTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC  
  
SOUTHERN INFLUENCE OF EASTERN US TROUGH WILL EXTEND INTO THE  
CAROLINAS TODAY. WHILE SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE THAT STRONG, 30KT  
500MB FLOW MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR A FEW ROBUST  
UPDRAFTS. HAVE FOCUSED HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC WHERE GREATER BUOYANCY AND STEEPER LAPSE  
RATES WILL COINCIDE WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. GUSTY WINDS AND  
PERHAPS SOME HAIL ARE THE GREATEST THREATS.  
  
..DARROW/DEAN.. 06/12/2022 

 

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

[ClicheVortex2014]

Strong wording for day 2. Probably will have a day 2 enhanced in 12 hours.

..UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY  
  
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MONDAY  
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST (IA/MN AND VICINITY). THIS  
ACTIVITY COULD POSE AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT AS IT MOVES  
EASTWARD MONDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE AN MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THIS  
MORNING CONVECTION, AND SOME GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A CORRESPONDING  
MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ENHANCEMENT TO THE MID-LEVEL WINDS.  
ALTHOUGH DETAILS IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAIN UNCLEAR MONDAY  
AFTERNOON, THERE IS INCREASING CONCERN THAT REDEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE  
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR WITH THE MCV ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN  
WI/NORTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI, IN, AND OH. STRONG TO EXTREME  
INSTABILITY (MLCAPE 3000-5500+ J/KG) WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG/SOUTH  
OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS THESE AREAS. LOW TO MID 70S SURFACE  
DEWPOINTS, STRONG DIURNAL HEATING, AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES  
WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS LARGE RESERVOIR OF BUOYANCY. 35-45+ KT  
OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD ALSO BE PRESENT WITH THE ENHANCED  
MID-LEVEL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF  
THE UPPER RIDGE.  
  
THIS VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE POTENTIAL  
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN FORM ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.  
AT THIS POINT, THERE IS STILL A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY  
WITH WHERE/IF THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH  
GLOBAL AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW LARGE VARIABILITY  
IN POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS, WHICH RANGE FROM LITTLE TO NO SURFACE-BASED  
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT, TO AN INTENSE, BOWING MCS SWEEPING  
SOUTHEASTWARD IN A NARROW CORRIDOR ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO  
THE OH VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES,  
HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE GREATER (15%) SEVERE WIND PROBABILITIES AND  
ADD A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WIND AREA WHERE CONFIDENCE IN AN MCS  
OCCURRING IS SOMEWHAT BETTER. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH ANY  
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL. A FEW TORNADOES ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE, AS  
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE WARM  
FRONT.  
  
IF CONFIDENCE IN THE MCS SCENARIO OCCURRING INCREASES, THEN EVEN  
GREATER SEVERE PROBABILITIES WOULD LIKELY BE NEEDED OWING TO THE  
VERY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN  
EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT IS ALSO UNCERTAIN, SO HAVE EXPANDED THE  
MARGINAL RISK ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO  
ACCOUNT FOR A BROAD RANGE OF POSSIBLE TRACKS TO THE MCS BEFORE IT  
EVENTUALLY WEAKENS MONDAY NIGHT.  
  

 

 

Edited June 12, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[snowlover2]

Some strong wording on the new day 2.

Quote

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1258 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2022  
  
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z  
  
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF  
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO  
VALLEY...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF  
THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND FROM PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT  
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW  
TORNADOES ALL APPEAR POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE WINDS COULD BE  
SIGNIFICANTLY SEVERE (75+ MPH) ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/OHIO  
VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
  
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL  
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON MONDAY,  
EVENTUALLY REACHING THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH  
PLAINS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD PERSIST  
OVER MUCH OF THE MS VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST, WITH ANOTHER UPPER  
LOW FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER QUEBEC. ENHANCED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY  
MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE PRESENT OVER PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE  
GREAT LAKES, OH VALLEY, AND MID-ATLANTIC ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF  
THE UPPER RIDGE.  
  
AT THE SURFACE, A LEE CYCLONE SHOULD CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NORTHERN  
AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY EVENING, WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER  
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RETURN  
NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG/EAST OF A FRONT  
EXTENDING BETWEEN THE TWO SURFACE LOWS. A WARM FRONT IS ALSO  
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE  
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY, WITH A VERY MOIST  
LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS PRESENT ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.  
   
..NORTHERN PLAINS  
  
MODEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND ASCENT PRECEDING AN UPPER TROUGH  
SHOULD OVERSPREAD PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY EVENING.  
DIURNAL HEATING OF A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS TO THE EAST OF A FRONT  
SHOULD ENCOURAGE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY  
BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN SD AND VICINITY.  
STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 50+ KT WILL EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS  
WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP AND PERSIST. MOST GUIDANCE  
SUGGESTS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP BY LATE MONDAY  
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN WY/SOUTHEASTERN MT, AND QUICKLY  
STRENGTHEN AS THEY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL SD  
AND ND MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT.  
  
THE RATHER FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL  
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR BOTH LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS WITH  
SUPERCELLS AS THE DOMINANT MODE INITIALLY. SOME OF THE HAIL COULD BE  
VERY LARGE (2+ INCHES) ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN SD AND VICINITY  
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, AS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND  
2000-3000+ J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT. WITH TIME, SOME  
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A CLUSTER MAY OCCUR ACROSS ND MONDAY NIGHT AS A  
COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GIVEN THE LARGE AMOUNT OF BUOYANCY  
FORECAST, DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL MAY CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT EVEN  
IF CONVECTION BECOMES SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO  
OCCUR WITH ANY SUPERCELL, MAINLY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY  
EVENING, ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN SD INTO ND AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR  
INCREASES.  
   
..UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY  
  
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MONDAY  
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST (IA/MN AND VICINITY). THIS  
ACTIVITY COULD POSE AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT AS IT MOVES  
EASTWARD MONDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE AN MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THIS  
MORNING CONVECTION, AND SOME GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A CORRESPONDING  
MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ENHANCEMENT TO THE MID-LEVEL WINDS.  
ALTHOUGH DETAILS IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAIN UNCLEAR MONDAY  
AFTERNOON, THERE IS INCREASING CONCERN THAT REDEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE  
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR WITH THE MCV ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN  
WI/NORTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI, IN, AND OH. STRONG TO EXTREME  
INSTABILITY (MLCAPE 3000-5500+ J/KG) WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG/SOUTH  
OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS THESE AREAS. LOW TO MID 70S SURFACE  
DEWPOINTS, STRONG DIURNAL HEATING, AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES  
WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS LARGE RESERVOIR OF BUOYANCY. 35-45+ KT  
OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD ALSO BE PRESENT WITH THE ENHANCED  
MID-LEVEL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF  
THE UPPER RIDGE.  
  
THIS VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE POTENTIAL  
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN FORM ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.  
AT THIS POINT, THERE IS STILL A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY  
WITH WHERE/IF THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH  
GLOBAL AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW LARGE VARIABILITY  
IN POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS, WHICH RANGE FROM LITTLE TO NO SURFACE-BASED  
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT, TO AN INTENSE, BOWING MCS SWEEPING  
SOUTHEASTWARD IN A NARROW CORRIDOR ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO  
THE OH VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES,  
HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE GREATER (15%) SEVERE WIND PROBABILITIES AND  
ADD A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WIND AREA WHERE CONFIDENCE IN AN MCS  
OCCURRING IS SOMEWHAT BETTER. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH ANY  
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL. A FEW TORNADOES ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE, AS  
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE WARM  
FRONT.  
  
IF CONFIDENCE IN THE MCS SCENARIO OCCURRING INCREASES, THEN EVEN  
GREATER SEVERE PROBABILITIES WOULD LIKELY BE NEEDED OWING TO THE  
VERY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN  
EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT IS ALSO UNCERTAIN, SO HAVE EXPANDED THE  
MARGINAL RISK ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO  
ACCOUNT FOR A BROAD RANGE OF POSSIBLE TRACKS TO THE MCS BEFORE IT  
EVENTUALLY WEAKENS MONDAY NIGHT.  
  
..GLEASON.. 06/12/2022  

 

 

[Neoncyclone]

6z HRRR is kind of worrying for me, storms developing late tomorrow and basically training over my area, hope this is wrong, looks nasty, parameters are decent too honestly

[StormfanaticInd]

These mcs situations are notoriously incredibly difficult to predict but the environment certainly is supportive a significant mcs should one form

[StormfanaticInd]

Already the models are struggling 

[NWOhioChaser]

Yeahhh. Cautiously watching but not holding my breath. Something is bound to mess up our severe threat. Looks like a serious wind threat with the parameters that are being shown. 

[StormfanaticInd]

From the SPC

Another area of concern is over parts of MO/IL/IN/KY. Hot and humid

   conditions will result in a very unstable air mass with afternoon

   MLCAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg, but a capping inversion limits

   confidence in convective initiation. Winds aloft are favorable in

   this region for rotating and bowing structures capable of large hail

   and damaging winds. Model guidance varies considerably regarding

   the timing and placement of storms today and tonight, but given the

   conditional risk, will maintain the ongoing SLGT risk with few

   changes.

[StormfanaticInd]

Storm in eastern Illinois about to enter Indiana looks pretty mean

[junior]

Models seem to be hinting at a possible long lived MCS for the northern parts of our region later Monday into Tuesday. 

Edited June 12, 2022 by junior

[StormfanaticInd]

😳

😳

[StormfanaticInd]

1 minute ago, StormfanaticInd said:

😳

😳

This can honestly happen anywhere in the region. Just depends on where it forms and how fast it can organize and IF it forms at all

[Columbusbuckeye]

17 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

😳

😳

 

This one definitely has my attention. Ring of fire/MCS systems are probably my favorite weather events.  The lightning is often amazing.  

Edited June 12, 2022 by Columbusbuckeye

[snowlover2]

39 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

This can honestly happen anywhere in the region. Just depends on where it forms and how fast it can organize and IF it forms at all

And if it possibly turns more south/develops southwestward toward the greater instability.