snowlover2 Posted June 21, 2022 Share Posted June 21, 2022 Confirmed tornado SW of Watertown SD. Quote BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 944 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 The National Weather Service in Aberdeen has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southwestern Hamlin County in northeastern South Dakota... Southeastern Clark County in northeastern South Dakota... * Until 1015 PM CDT. * At 944 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 9 miles south of Willow Lake, or 17 miles northwest of Lake Thompson State Recreation Area, moving east at 45 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * The tornado will be near... Willow Lake around 955 PM CDT. Other locations in the path of this tornadic thunderstorm include Bryant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 21, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 21, 2022 The streak is hanging on by a thread. Day 1 slight risk introduced with the Noon update... already have a day 2 slight risk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted June 21, 2022 Moderators Share Posted June 21, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 22, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 22, 2022 EF2 confirmed in Utah. Pretty impressive profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 22, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 22, 2022 18 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: EF2 confirmed in Utah. Pretty impressive profile. More.... yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 22, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 22, 2022 (edited) I've been waiting on this tweet. Looks like this streak will be the longest since 2008. Seems very unlikely that we'll challenge that 2008 streak given the short-to-medium range forecast. Edited June 22, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 23, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 23, 2022 (edited) I'd call this an overachieving slight risk. Still 7 active warnings. Continues to be a very active month for damaging winds. That lone tornado report is in Athens county. I know that the county has had less than 40 tornadoes since 1950 so this is pretty significant if confirmed. Edited June 23, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 23, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 23, 2022 If storms can develop tomorrow, Kansas will produce some aesthetically nice supercells Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 23, 2022 Share Posted June 23, 2022 1 hour ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: If storms can develop tomorrow, Kansas will produce some aesthetically nice supercells Good plot. The hodograph plots are a very interesting new thing this year. There will be some locally very high supercell indices and tornado indices. CAM models have scattered storm development. The 00z HRRR doesn't really favor larger storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 23, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 23, 2022 Swaths of significant severe weather today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 23, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 23, 2022 Intense MCS/MCV in Alberta. Fwiw, their standards for severe warnings are much different than the US. The presence of “torrential rainfall” is enough to trigger a severe tstorm warning. I can’t imagine the chaos if the US did that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 23, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 23, 2022 Expecting storms to develop in the next hour or so Mesoscale Discussion 1265 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Areas affected...Parts of north-central KS and south-central NE Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 231857Z - 232130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The risk of widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail, severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two will increase between 20-23Z across parts of KS and NE. Watch issuance will be likely this afternoon. DISCUSSION...In the wake of earlier elevated convection over north-central KS into southern NE, cloud clearing is allowing for boundary-layer heating/mixing amid upper 60s dewpoints. As a subtle midlevel impulse evident in water vapor imagery tracks eastward across parts of the area in conjunction with a deepening lee trough over the central High Plains, isolated high-based thunderstorm development may occur over parts of western KS/NE and track eastward into the increasingly moist/unstable airmass in the 20-23Z time frame. While less uncertain, additional convective development will be possible farther east in north-central KS into south-central NE -- where steep low-level lapse rates are developing along the western periphery of the recovering cold pool. Current thinking is that a modest increase in midlevel west-southwesterly flow accompanying the subtle cyclonic impulse will result in 35-45 kt of effective bulk shear, which combined with the aforementioned destabilization should support organized convection including supercells. This activity should generally be focused from the eastern periphery of steep low-level lapse rates over northwest KS/southwest NE eastward along and north of a weak warm front lifting northward in central KS. Given modest midlevel lapse rates and an elongating mid/upper-level hodograph, large to very large hail will be possible with any semi-discrete supercell structures along with locally severe gusts. In addition, a gradual increase in the easterly low-level flow component amid a somewhat sheltered boundary layer is expected as the lee trough deepens. This would yield favorable clockwise-turning low-level hodographs supportive of a tornado or two with any longer-lived surface-based supercells. A watch will likely be needed for parts of the area this afternoon. This area was clearly impacted by an overnight MCC which has decayed. Can clearly see the huge impact it had on Kansas. Can even see a bit of the outflow boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 23, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 23, 2022 18z HRRR didn't hold back for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 23, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 23, 2022 5000 sbcape/3500 mlcape, 40 knots effective shear, 200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH in the vicinity of developing cells. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 23, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 23, 2022 (edited) Only a severe watch but we're gonna see some crazy supercells and probably tornadoes... especially in a few hours if storm mode remains favorable. LCL appears to be a limiting factor for now for the most part. SPC has the 5% tornado for the area where the LCL is more reasonable (750m-1250m). Any cell in the eastern part of the initial development will have a tornado threat immediately IMO Edited June 23, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 23, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 23, 2022 (edited) Finally starting to see a serious supercell evolve. Clustered, but there's no denying this is something to watch. Especially since the nocturnal LLJ kicks in in a couple of hours. It's about to go through a merger but I think this'll become a monster supercell. Edited June 23, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 23, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 23, 2022 An absolute mess but there's no denying there could be a tornado in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 23, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 23, 2022 (edited) Obviously I'm not surprised. Confirmed tornado. Nasty HP supercell. Edited June 23, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 23, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 23, 2022 Dang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 23, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 23, 2022 Yep that looks like some extreme instability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 24, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 24, 2022 Decent tornado outbreak in Saskatchewan. One supercell has 76.5 dBz. The dominant tornadic supercell in Kansas has dissipated but a new one is rapidly developing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 24, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 24, 2022 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 24, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 24, 2022 (edited) Edited June 24, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger89 Posted June 24, 2022 Share Posted June 24, 2022 3 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: There's a huge wind farm there at Ellsworth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 24, 2022 Share Posted June 24, 2022 Confirmed tornado in ND. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 504 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022 NDC005-027-063-242230- /O.CON.KFGF.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-220624T2230Z/ Benson ND-Nelson ND-Eddy ND- 504 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN BENSON...SOUTHWESTERN NELSON AND NORTHEASTERN EDDY COUNTIES... At 504 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Pekin, or 33 miles southeast of Devils Lake, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... McVille, Tolna, Pekin and Hamar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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