June 11-24, 2022 | Northwest Flow Severe Weather/Ring of Fire

[ClicheVortex2014]

53 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

0z NAM looking potentially fun on Wednesday.

Meh. Weakly unstable.

--

Marginal risk-less streak continues

 

Edited June 20, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Southwest of Indianapolis. Weak instability, strong shear. (sarcasm)

Southwest of Cleveland

[snowlover2]

14 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Tomorrow looks like an enhanced risk day, but Tuesday might finally break the streak. New Mexico might come in clutch and keep it alive though.

There ya go and they mention 80-90mph winds possible.

Quote

 Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1130 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

   Valid 201630Z - 211200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF
   SD...SOUTHEAST ND...AND NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL MN...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are likely across the
   northern Great Plains from mid-afternoon through this evening.
   Destructive wind gusts, very large hail, and a couple tornadoes are
   possible.

   ...Northern Great Plains...
   A vigorous shortwave trough near the UT/ID/WY border area will eject
   northeast into ND tonight, around the northwest periphery of a
   closed high over the Mid-South. Attendant mid-level jet will
   strengthen as it spreads from the central Rockies towards the Red
   River Valley. A wavy surface front extending southwest from a
   primary cyclone over northwest Ontario will move little today, and
   then begin to accelerate eastward tonight in response to the
   ejecting mid-level trough and convective outflows. A plume of upper
   60s to lower 70s boundary-layer dewpoints will be maintained along
   the front from north-central/northeast SD and ahead of it across MN.
   The dryline should effectively mix into south-central SD through
   central NE where mid to upper 90s surface temperatures become
   common. Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, the largest MLCAPE of
   2500-4000 J/kg should become established across MN into the eastern
   Dakotas, with a bent-back plume of moderate buoyancy extending
   southwest along and to the cool side of the surface front into the
   NE Panhandle.

   Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid afternoon in
   advance of the ejecting mid-level trough, within the post-frontal
   environment from eastern WY into the NE Panhandle. Convection will
   subsequently spread northeast across the Dakotas, as well as likely
   develop separately along the baroclinic zone over the Red River
   Valley through early evening. Vertical shear will be strongest along
   and west of the stalled front, especially within the strengthening
   500-mb southwesterly jet. Thus, the best chance for long-track
   supercells with significant severe hail amid highly elongated and
   nearly straight-line hodographs should be across northwest NE to
   central SD. As this activity approaches larger buoyancy during the
   evening, and likely impinges on downshear convection along the
   front, multiple MCSs with sustained bowing segments will probably
   develop, increasing the threat for severe wind gusts, some of which
   may reach 80-90 mph. Greater tornado potential is more nebulous, but
   a focused corridor for a couple tornadoes is apparent across
   north-central SD and southeast ND into northwest MN with any
   supercells/bows along this portion of the initially stalled front.
   Overall severe potential should diminish overnight through a
   combination of extensive convective overturning and increasing
   warm-sector MLCIN.

   ...Central/south FL...
   Scattered pulse thunderstorms will again develop along sea breezes
   this afternoon within a large buoyancy environment characterized by
   near 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Weak vertical shear will limit potential
   for more organized convection, but localized damaging downbursts
   will be possible in the strongest cells.

   ..Grams/Weinman.. 06/20/2022

 

 

[snowlover2]

Quote

Mesoscale Discussion 1232
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0115 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

   Areas affected...far eastern WY...northern NE Panhandle...southwest
   SD

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 201815Z - 202015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to initially develop/intensify
   over southeast WY and eventually spread northeast into the NE
   Panhandle and southwest SD.  Isolated large hail and severe gusts
   are possible with the stronger storms.  A severe thunderstorm watch
   is likely over south-central SD extending west/southwest into the
   northern part of the NE Panhandle.

   DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a couple of
   thunderstorms developing north of Cheyenne, WY with a stratus deck
   south of the Badlands straddling the NE/SD border.  Surface analysis
   indicates a surface front extends from northeast CO northeastward
   into Cherry Co., NE and into northeast SD.  To the west of the
   boundary, strong heating and relatively moist low levels (surface
   dewpoints 60-65 deg F) are contributing to a destabilizing airmass
   to the northeast of the WY thunderstorm activity.

   As the zone of strongest mid-level forcing for ascent pivots
   northeastward across WY this afternoon in conjunction with a
   shortwave trough, thunderstorms will preferentially develop
   initially over WY.  Continued heating and the leading edge of
   appreciable ascent will weaken/erode the remaining cap on a
   localized basis and additional storm development is expected. 
   Widely scattered storms are forecast by mid-late afternoon with
   several of the stronger storms being capable of a risk for large
   hail and severe gusts.  This activity will probably merge to some
   degree and consolidate into a cluster by the early evening with the
   threat for hail/wind correspondingly increasing.

   ..Smith/Grams.. 06/20/2022

 

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

 Mesoscale Discussion 1233
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0149 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

   Areas affected...Southeast ND...northeast SD...and parts of
   northwest MN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 201849Z - 202115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe-storm threat will increase across parts of the
   northern Plains and Red River Valley between 20-22Z. Large to very
   large hail, severe gusts (some significant) and a tornado or two
   will be possible. A watch will be needed this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Surface observations and MVX radar data depicts a
   northeast/southwest-oriented quasi-stationary surface boundary
   extending across the Red River Valley. Ongoing elevated convection
   and related cloud debris north of the boundary across northeast ND
   will continue to reinforce the baroclinic zone, while strong diurnal
   heating of an increasingly moist boundary layer (upper 60s/lower 70s
   dewpoints) continues along and south of the boundary. As a subtle
   midlevel impulse evident in water vapor imagery over the western
   Dakotas overspreads the boundary this afternoon, current thinking is
   that convection will develop in the 20-22Z time frame.

   Regional VWP data shows strong midlevel southwesterly flow
   approaching the area, which will contribute to 45-55 kt of effective
   shear amid moderate to strong surface-based buoyancy and steep
   midlevel lapse rates. While these factors will support organized
   convection (including initially semi-discrete supercells) along and
   south of the boundary, largely front-parallel deep-layer flow/shear
   coupled with the strengthening large-scale ascent could yield
   congealing cold pools and upscale growth. Large to very large hail
   and severe gusts will be possible with any supercell structures, and
   a tornado or two cannot be ruled out owing to modest low-level
   hodograph curvature. With time, convective clustering amid steep
   low/midlevel lapse rates could support organized bowing
   segments/supercell clusters capable of severe gusts (some of which
   could be significant). A watch will be needed for parts of the area
   this afternoon.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Yeah today's gonna be a crazy severe weather day. Trough is taking a strong negative tilt in late June. That's dangerous.

 

[Guest]

This morning I finished replanting some soybeans that drowned out from the last deluge a few weeks back……should be good for storms later lol.

 

After 110 heat index and 40mph winds all weekend, a nice SMALL shot of rain would be nice.  Last nights low was 73, the night before was 79, and 72 before that.  Our normal highs are 80.  
 

I hate this weather!

[snowlover2]

Storm chances here Wednesday are pretty much history.

ILN

Quote

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Wednesday is the challenging day of the extended forecast. Have been
trying to temper the ECMWF forecast max temps that were topping the
90th percentile but was only able to drop a degree or two in the
past few days. Latest run is showing that the forecast has dropped
solidly into the 50th percentile and now that the NAM is close
enough to get a MOS product, it is even cooler than the
significantly colder GFS forecast - mid to upper 80s vs mid 90s.

Humidity will be increased on this day ahead of a cold front, but
the front is progged to cross the CWA earlier, severely limiting
highs with cloud cover and/or precipitation. In addition, the
highest dewpoints will be in the morning with a marked decrease
during the afternoon. We`ve been messaging heat indicies for the
past several days that do not appear to be a significant threat and
are an extreme forecast that looks to be out of tolerance with
latest model guidance. That being said, the high for Wed has been
dropped by a degree from the NBM guidance but is likely still too
warm. The change in dewpoints were noted a bit better in the NBM,
which combined with the slightly cooler forecast, puts the heat
index values to the upper 90s/near 100, possibly exceeding 100 along
and south of the Ohio River in the pre-frontal environment. Expect
this ever so slowly cooling trend to continue. This should
eventually  scale back  the higher HI threat. The increased
potential of HIs pushing to or above 100 is still fresh in the
region`s mind from last week. However that had anomalously high
moisture present with very high temps, something that is just not
feasible Wednesday even if readings briefly pop into the advisory
criteria of 100-105.

Given the aforementioned timing, the better threat for storms in the
latter part of the day resides along and more likely south of the
Ohio River. Some individual storms may pop along the front as it
crosses the region, but there does not appear to be a strong enough
intersection of instability and lift to create more than an isolated
storm in an area of showers sparked by the fropa, especially in a
weakly sheared environment. SPC outlook for day 3 with a marginal
threat covering Wednesday is probably a bit further north in
placement from what the latest models are indicating. Expect updated
forecasts to be further south and reside along/south of the Ohio as
the primary area of concern.

 

 

[snowlover2]

Quote

  URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 394
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   320 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Northwest Minnesota
     Eastern North Dakota

   * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until
     1000 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
       to 80 mph possible
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
       inches in diameter possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Initial slow-moving supercells should develop along a
   surface front and grow upscale into a cluster. Large hail will be
   primary threat early, with a greater wind threat later.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
   statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles northeast of
   Thief River Falls MN to 55 miles south of Fargo ND. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 393...

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
   23025.

   ...Grams

 

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

yikes

[ClicheVortex2014]

Tornadic supercell in western Nebraska

[snowlover2]

11 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Tornadic supercell in western Nebraska

Another one in NE SD just SE of Ashley ND.

[snowlover2]

No thanks!

Quote

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
437 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

The National Weather Service in Grand Forks has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Eastern Marshall County in northwestern Minnesota...
  Red Lake County in northwestern Minnesota...
  Southeastern Polk County in northwestern Minnesota...
  Northwestern Beltrami County in north central Minnesota...
  Eastern Pennington County in northwestern Minnesota...
  Northern Clearwater County in northwestern Minnesota...

* Until 530 PM CDT.

* At 436 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Oklee, or 24
  miles southeast of Thief River Falls, moving northeast at 70 mph.

  THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR ROLAND, OKLEE, AND GULLY.

  HAZARD...Baseball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured.
           Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs,
           siding, and vehicles.

* This severe thunderstorm will be near...
  Roland around 440 PM CDT.
  Northwestern Red Lake Nation around 450 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this severe thunderstorm include
Thorhult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4750 9563 4750 9576 4780 9633 4854 9566
      4854 9563 4810 9471
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 230DEG 62KT 4785 9584

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

 

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

SE ND... yikes

[snowlover2]

Semis being blown off the road in MN.

Quote

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
506 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

MNC007-029-089-113-119-125-202230-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0079.000000T0000Z-220620T2230Z/
Marshall MN-Red Lake MN-Polk MN-Beltrami MN-Pennington MN-
Clearwater MN-
506 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN MARSHALL...NORTHEASTERN RED LAKE...EAST CENTRAL POLK...
NORTHWESTERN BELTRAMI...EASTERN PENNINGTON AND NORTHERN CLEARWATER
COUNTIES...

At 504 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over western Red
Lake Nation, or 31 miles east of Thief River Falls, moving east at 45
mph.

THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM.

HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Emergency management reports semi trucks blown off the
         road.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect
         considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles.
         Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely.

Locations impacted include...
  southwestern Upper Red Lake and Ponemah.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. This storm is producing widespread
wind damage across northern Beltrami county. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside
a sturdy structure and stay away from windows.

This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind
speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are
especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be
overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the
lowest floor of a building. This storm has the potential to cause
serious injury and significant property damage.

&&

LAT...LON 4766 9540 4764 9567 4811 9596 4854 9565
      4854 9563 4832 9516 4810 9472
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 251DEG 38KT 4796 9552

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH

 

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Interesting setup. Clear cold front but conditions behind the front aren't actually that bad,

 

[NWOhioChaser]

Upper Midwest be so active I'm actually quite suspicious when I get on Radarscope on any given day and there's not 15 warnings going on at once...

[Chinook]

Tornado warning headed toward Pierre, SD, one of those state capitals that's just hard to remember when you are in grade school and such.

[1816]

1 hour ago, Chinook said:

Tornado warning headed toward Pierre, SD, one of those state capitals that's just hard to remember when you are in grade school and such.

Springfield Missouri sends its regards

[ClicheVortex2014]

Disorganized event but certainly no lack of significant severe weather

[ClicheVortex2014]

1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Disorganized event but certainly no lack of significant severe weather

Likely will have a swath of significant damaging winds soon with this cluster in SD. Currently warned for 80 mph winds but HRRR has been sounding the alarm for this area for a high-end event. Won't be surprised if we see greater wording in the warning.

Edited June 21, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

The trough is starting to take a strong negative tilt. Currently at 60 knots.

 

[snowlover2]

16 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Likely will have a swath of significant damaging winds soon with this cluster in SD. Currently warned for 80 mph winds but HRRR has been sounding the alarm for this area for a high-end event. Won't be surprised if we see greater wording in the warning.

Already several significant wind reports in SD from this i believe. Likely a Derecho?

[ClicheVortex2014]

5 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Already several significant wind reports in SD from this i believe. Likely a Derecho?

I strongly felt this was a derecho setup given the 500mb pattern, but the disorganized nature of this evening really works against that. But this bow echo moving into NE SD is making a strong case.

That said, it wasn't until our derecho last week that I realized there was a width requirement for a derecho. This one might not meet that requirement.

Edited June 21, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Guest]

Just doing a little sidestepping over here.