Sam Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 2 hours ago, NWsnowhio said: As long as I have electricity and AC to retreat to, I'd much rather have this than the gray/chill/winds of winter and early spring that drag on entirely too long in northern Ohio. The older I get, the more seasonal depression affects me each year when February and March roll around. The flip-flopping of things in April-May can make it even worse sometimes. I'm gonna enjoy the heat and sun while we got it without complaining! I'd rather strip down/be out in the sun/jump in a pool than layer-up/shiver/be in the dark any day (major snowstorms now and again notwithstanding)! I'm exactly the opposite. This is worse than the coldest days of winter. I flip houses for living so at times there is no AC or heat. I can always warm up on a cold day with extra layers or activity. But without AC it's tough to cool down once you're overheated, especially if you're hanging drywall or demoing a kitchen. And the older I get the less I can handle the heat. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 15, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 15, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 15, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 15, 2022 (edited) Moderate risk for tornadoes and wind... Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND FAR NORTHEAST IOWA/SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon into tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Several tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging winds all appear likely. Some of the tornadoes could be strong. ...Upper Midwest including Wisconsin/Iowa/Upper Michigan... A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected this afternoon and evening, particularly across eastern Iowa/far southeast Minnesota into southern/central/eastern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan. Aside from large hail, this includes the potential for tornadoes, some of which may be strong, along with a focused corridor of appreciable damaging wind potential. Related to a decayed overnight MCS, morning surface analysis shows a precipitation-reinforced semi-stalled boundary extending from west/central Iowa into southwest/central Wisconsin, with some persistent precipitation and a few stronger storms/differential heating reinforcing this boundary. A notable upper trough over the northern Plains will influence the region particularly later today into tonight with increasing large-scale forcing for ascent and strengthening deep-layer southwesterly winds. Modest surface cyclogenesis is expected along the southwest/northeast-oriented boundary, with the gradually deepening wave expected to help maintain an easterly component to the near-surface winds. Surface dewpoints in the lower 70s F and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield MLCAPE values of 3000+ J/kg especially from eastern Iowa into much of central/southern Wisconsin. Strong deep-layer shear and large hodographs will promote supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes during the first several hours of surface-based initiation. A few of the tornadoes could be strong (EF2+), although there are some mode-related uncertainties over time. Storms are likely to trend upscale across interior parts (central/southern) of Wisconsin with damaging wind potential appreciably increasing. Storms will move into Lower Michigan and northern Illinois after sunset, with a continued risk of locally damaging wind gusts persisting, potentially as far east as Lower Michigan and northern Indiana. ...Southeast/Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States... A hot and humid low-level air mass is in place today from the central/northern Appalachians and interior Carolinas southwestward into Mississippi/Alabama, with widespread temperatures in the 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s. This will result in MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg and steep low-level lapse rates throughout the region. The details of the timing and location of convective development remains uncertain even in the short-term, but multiple corridors of storms may unfold this afternoon into tonight on the periphery of the southern Appalachians-centered upper-level ridge. Sufficiently strong northeasterly flow aloft will aid in southwestward-propagating clusters capable of strong/damaging wind gusts. A conditional severe risk will exist as far north as west-central Pennsylvania and western New York today near the front. Several models also imply the potential for late-night MCS development centered across southern New York/west-central Pennsylvania into Maryland. Edited June 15, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 15, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 15, 2022 HRRR shows a 4-hour discrete supercell just ahead of a line but other than that, looks messy/linear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 (edited) 6 hours ago, NWsnowhio said: As long as I have electricity and AC to retreat to, I'd much rather have this than the gray/chill/winds of winter and early spring that drag on entirely too long in northern Ohio. The older I get, the more seasonal depression affects me each year when February and March roll around. The flip-flopping of things in April-May can make it even worse sometimes. I'm gonna enjoy the heat and sun while we got it without complaining! I'd rather strip down/be out in the sun/jump in a pool than layer-up/shiver/be in the dark any day (major snowstorms now and again notwithstanding)! I'm a landscaper by trade. I spend 10-14hrs outside all day, so I've been through some tough summers. Last year was particularly brutal. Lots of days where DP was above 68. Makes for some long days for sure. I'm pretty sure I've helped a few sunscreen companies stay in business! I can do the heat, but the humidity is what kills me. Im still pretty young, and most of my background is in construction/roofing. It takes a special breed to be able to handle the summers lately. That being said, each year passes and I find it harder to tolerate the heat like I used to. If I could work in 75-80° year round with low humidity that'd be my dream! Guess I'm in the wrong location! But I completely agree with the drawn out winters lingering well into spring. Definitely don't care for that! Edited June 15, 2022 by NWOhioChaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 15, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 15, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 15, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 15, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 8 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: I honestly wasn't expecting probabilities like these lol, models have been underwhelming lately.... that being said their accuracy has also been incredibly underwhelming as of the last few storms so, maybe that was a good call lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 If I had to guess which cell right now would go on to become a long-tracking supercell it'd be this guy, question is how long until things turn into a huge messy line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 15, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: I honestly wasn't expecting probabilities like these lol, models have been underwhelming lately.... that being said their accuracy has also been incredibly underwhelming as of the last few storms so, maybe that was a good call lol I mean, there'll likely be embedded supercells or mesovortices in the line so that should be good for at least some tornadoes. I'm just not sure about the magnitude of the tornado threat. Looks messy. But the probabilities in the tornado watch could still verify if there's no semi-discrete supercells 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 Seems to be organizing pretty quickly, I'll probably leave the rest of the radar shots to cliche since he probably has access to four panel radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 Man...Upper Midwest has been dominating the severe threats this year. And not just in ring of fire setups either. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 15, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 15, 2022 Interesting evolution so far. Clearly started out wanting to be supercellular, kinda bowed out a bit, and now definitely back to looking supercellular 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Interesting evolution so far. Clearly started out wanting to be supercellular, kinda bowed out a bit, and now definitely back to looking supercellular Definitely a little strange looking, looks like a little cell rode up it and at the same time the radar was kind of glitching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 Cool radar loop, tornado warning might be coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 15, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 15, 2022 Mesoscale Discussion 1177 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Areas affected...portions of western/central WI Concerning...Tornado Watch 371... Valid 152019Z - 152145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 371 continues. SUMMARY...Increasing potential for tornadoes and large hail expected in a corridor across west-central into central WI over the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Initially messy convection developing along and just ahead of the surface cold front across northeast IA and western WI is showing signs of organization over the last 15-30 minutes. This activity is moving into a corridor of backed low-level surface winds. Increasing rotation aloft has been noted in KARX data and this trend may continue with eastward extent over the next couple of hours. Latest VWP data from KARX continues to show an enlarged, favorably curved low-level hodograph with 0-1 SRH values now around 250-300 m2/s2 as low-level flow has increased somewhat over the last couple of hours. As convection encounters this corridor of more favorable low-level shear within a strongly unstable environment, an increase in tornado potential as well as large hail is expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 15, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 15, 2022 A lot of these cells look suspicious. Especially the one east of Elkader 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 15, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 15, 2022 Reminder that even though that one cell got off to a hot start, it’s north of the moderate risk for tornadoes. Plenty of semi-discrete cells are moving into the 15%# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 15, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 15, 2022 3 frontrunning supercells of concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 This storm is looking really decent right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 Very active warm sector, usually you see some displacement of storms and the warm sector in some way but we're loaded up with storms today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 (edited) Small couplet NE of Norwalk no cc drop yet Edited June 15, 2022 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 15, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 15, 2022 Small debris signature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 (edited) Crazy how fast that happened Edited June 15, 2022 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 Effective layer STP just updated, not the one with 0-500km srh in mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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