StormfanaticInd Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 Looks like I might get some action tonight 🤔 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 11, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 11, 2022 1 minute ago, StormfanaticInd said: Looks like I might get some action tonight 🤔 Latest HRRR runs would say that's an understatement 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 11, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 11, 2022 This isnt going the way I thought it would. It seems the supercell is growing and the inflow region is growing. Strong, broad rotation now. Still clearly embedded but that hasn’t stopped it from strengthening and growing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 (edited) Several cell mergers later and this storm is intent on becoming dominant and possibly discrete, the HRRR shows a MCS start to get going and then break up into discrete storms again, so I wonder if forcing isn't strong enough for a big MCS Edited June 11, 2022 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 11, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 11, 2022 (edited) 3 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: This isnt going the way I thought it would. It seems the supercell is growing and the inflow region is growing. Strong, broad rotation now. Still clearly embedded but that hasn’t stopped it from strengthening and growing. Here's what I was talking about. 15 minutes between the two images. I know I circled at least part of the RFD, especially in the first one, but the big picture is also important. Edited June 11, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: Several cell mergers later and this storm is intent on becoming dominant and possibly discrete, the HRRR shows a MCS start to get going and then break up into discrete storms again, so I wonder if forcing isn't strong enough for a big MCS Clearly the atmosphere is ripe for MCS's don't mind me or this derecho composite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 Could be a large tornado soon wow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 11, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 11, 2022 (edited) Likely strong tornado. Might be heading for Blue Rapids. Intense RFD, seems the new convection in the inflow region is related to the inflow itself becoming very moist/unstable which would be a bad sign if I'm right... which I'm not sure about. Edited June 11, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 Land hurricane or confirmed tornado? I can't tell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 Quote BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Topeka KS 623 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 The National Weather Service in Topeka has issued a * Tornado Warning for... North central Riley County in northeastern Kansas... Northwestern Pottawatomie County in northeastern Kansas... Southwestern Marshall County in northeastern Kansas... * Until 700 PM CDT. * At 621 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 5 miles north of Blue Rapids, moving south at 25 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and tennis ball size hail. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. At 615 PM a trained spotter reported a tornado south of Marysville. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Blue Rapids and Waterville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 That's very intense inflow aloft 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 11, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Neoncyclone said: That's very intense inflow aloft I think it's occluding but obviously could still produce something soon over Blue Rapids. We'll find out shortly. That large inflow region is completely covered in heavy rain which is looking like a good thing based on the past few scans 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 11, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 11, 2022 Blue Rapids certainly didn't get hit by a tornado, but those damaging winds would be nothing to mess around with. This might be the point at which we see a quick trend toward a bowing MCS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 11, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 11, 2022 (edited) I spoke too soon. Weird we're not seeing debris at even 3000 feet. Maybe it picked up just before entering town? Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Topeka KS 634 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 KSC117-149-161-120000- /O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0024.000000T0000Z-220612T0000Z/ Riley-Pottawatomie-Marshall- 634 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL RILEY...NORTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE AND SOUTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTIES... At 632 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located over Blue Rapids, moving south at 30 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. At 625 PM a trained spotter reported a tornado 5 miles north of Blue Rapids. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Blue Rapids and Waterville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! && LAT...LON 3979 9652 3947 9644 3947 9681 3976 9674 TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 002DEG 26KT 3969 9664 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN Edited June 11, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 PDS Warned now! Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Topeka KS 634 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 KSC117-149-161-120000- /O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0024.000000T0000Z-220612T0000Z/ Riley-Pottawatomie-Marshall- 634 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL RILEY...NORTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE AND SOUTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTIES... At 632 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located over Blue Rapids, moving south at 30 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. At 625 PM a trained spotter reported a tornado 5 miles north of Blue Rapids. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Blue Rapids and Waterville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 (edited) Don't know how often if ever I've seen green on Spectrum width Edited June 11, 2022 by Neoncyclone 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: I spoke too soon. Weird we're not seeing debris at even 3000 feet. Maybe it picked up just before entering town? Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Topeka KS 634 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 KSC117-149-161-120000- /O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0024.000000T0000Z-220612T0000Z/ Riley-Pottawatomie-Marshall- 634 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL RILEY...NORTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE AND SOUTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTIES... At 632 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located over Blue Rapids, moving south at 30 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. At 625 PM a trained spotter reported a tornado 5 miles north of Blue Rapids. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Blue Rapids and Waterville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! && LAT...LON 3979 9652 3947 9644 3947 9681 3976 9674 TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 002DEG 26KT 3969 9664 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN Not sure what's going on there, definitely looks like it's growing upscale into an MCS now, never saw anything on CC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 No longer PDS or confirmed for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 11, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Neoncyclone said: Not sure what's going on there, definitely looks like it's growing upscale into an MCS now, never saw anything on CC Won't be surprised if they find it lifted just before town because there was definitely something there in the scan before it entered town, then the next scan there was really nothing. MCS growth is definitely happening now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 It's the Mothership!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 (edited) Could've been an occluded tornado as Cliche said that moved just east of town via spectrum width bands wrapping up on the end of what looks like the outflow of our quickly growing MCS Edited June 11, 2022 by Neoncyclone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 Looks like it will be headed right at Manhattan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 11, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: Could've been an occluded tornado as Cliche said that moved just east of town via spectrum width bands wrapping up on the end of what looks like the outflow of our quickly growing MCS That surging gust front really argues for the idea of a rapidly weakening/lifting tornado 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hassaywx1223 Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 60k feet cloud tops crazy look at it just explode 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 11, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 11, 2022 (edited) Since spectrum width isn't really one of the more common products we use regularly: It's a dual-pol product so it's relatively new and kinda complex, but basically, greater values indicate rapidly changing winds. So it's good at indicating a tornado if there is one, but it's also very good at looking for gust fronts. Normal radar products like reflectivity and velocity only used horizontal beams. Dual-pol, which became used more widespread in 2012-2013, uses vertical beams as well. That was a big deal for guesstimating hail sizes, as you can imagine, because combining those beams can tell you if the hail is more wide than long or vice versa. But dual-pol ended up being used for detecting debris as well (correlation coefficient) and other more complex products that isn't used conventionally like specific differential phase. It has uses, but not many use it regularly. Edited June 12, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now