Sam Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 Still 87/77 in Columbus. A little thunder, but I guess we may get to see the late show. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 by the way, HRRR soundings show that the supercell composite parameter is 55 just south of Chicago. The currently tornado-warned storm has moved through O'Hare and Midway, and now to White Sox land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 14, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 14, 2022 Just now, Chinook said: by the way, HRRR soundings show that the supercell composite parameter is 55 just south of Chicago. The currently tornado-warned storm has moved through O'Hare and Midway, and now to White Sox land. Was about to say... other than the Chicago supercell, it's missing the cells east of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 Boy sure looks like northern line is moving in quicker than forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted June 14, 2022 Admin Share Posted June 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said: Boy sure looks like northern line is moving in quicker than forecasted. Yes.. at this rate the NAM is going to be way off. It said 6a arrival for central Ohio. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 Just having some fun doodling...thinking this area will probably get the worst of the line coming through. So Toledo will miss the brunt of it...but really the entire area will see some serious wind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 Starting to see some bowing out with the complex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 14, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 14, 2022 Already 2 significant wind reports with the new round. I don't think we can count that toward a potential derecho because one is from a supercell that's separate from a bowing segment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 14, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 14, 2022 HRRR-generated sounding for KDAY on the 0z HRRR (hour 0) is looking very rough. Robust 0-3km convective overturning, but moderately steep lapse rates remain above that layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michelle Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: HRRR-generated sounding for KDAY on the 0z HRRR (hour 0) is looking very rough. Robust 0-3km convective overturning, but moderately steep lapse rates remain above that layer. What does that mean in Laymans terms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 14, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 14, 2022 Well it looks like 0z HRRR is already useless for figuring out what will happen in the next few hours. Failed after just the first 2 frames. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 14, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 14, 2022 Just now, Michelle said: What does that mean in Laymans terms? The storms made the low-levels very stable/dry, but some mid-level instability remains. Given the time of day, it's very questionable whether the low-levels can destabilize. Any other time of year it would be a 'no', but given how much warmth and moisture surrounds us, I think we should be able to recover a bit. But I don't think it'll be enough to warrant an enhanced risk for our area. But the new day 1 outlook is due any moment. It'll be interesting to see what SPC thinks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWsnowhio Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 Looks as if Moderate and Enhanced are being maintained. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 (edited) Really think the Moderate could trimmed on the northern fringe. Looks like most of the severe threat will stay west/south of Toledo. This line probably will help stabilize us for the most part around here. Getting ansty with the line coming through. Should be here within the next 30-45 mins. Edited June 14, 2022 by NWOhioChaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted June 14, 2022 Admin Share Posted June 14, 2022 Wilmington dropped the severe thunderstorm watch (which was for round one) and now everyone is freaking out on their Facebook page. “I read we’re getting a massive derecho across the whole state. When’s it coming?” 😆 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWsnowhio Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 1 minute ago, BuckeyeGal said: Wilmington dropped the severe thunderstorm watch (which was for round one) and now everyone is freaking out on their Facebook page. “I read we’re getting a massive derecho across the whole state. When’s it coming?” 😆 Don't get me started on my peeve...."What about my town?1?!?!" 🙃 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 Few pics of around town certainly wasn’t expected luckily kept our power on. Stay safe guys! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWsnowhio Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 (edited) New Day 1 posted Edited June 14, 2022 by NWsnowhio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 11 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: The storms made the low-levels very stable/dry, but some mid-level instability remains. Given the time of day, it's very questionable whether the low-levels can destabilize. Any other time of year it would be a 'no', but given how much warmth and moisture surrounds us, I think we should be able to recover a bit. But I don't think it'll be enough to warrant an enhanced risk for our area. But the new day 1 outlook is due any moment. It'll be interesting to see what SPC thinks. So assuming that western fringe grows or stays strong, does the mid level instability do enough to maintain it into the northern Dayton area/south Dayton? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 14, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 14, 2022 (edited) 5 minutes ago, NWsnowhio said: Don't get me started on my peeve...."What about my town?1?!?!" 🙃 Oh I troll my friends official TV twitter accounts with variations of that question. Always fun. Never get a response though... it's weird. It's nice because now I have 3 friends that are on Cincinnati and Dayton TV stations. West-central Ohio remains in the same position as the previous day 1 outlook. Seems SPC expects sufficient recovery. Edited June 14, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post OxfordOh_ Posted June 14, 2022 Popular Post Share Posted June 14, 2022 Also not my picture but this was taken on Harrison ave earlier to good not to share! 4 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 14, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 14, 2022 1 minute ago, ak9971 said: So assuming that western fringe grows or stays strong, does the mid level instability do enough to maintain it into the northern Dayton area/south Dayton? The thing with elevated instability is that it doesn't produce wind/tornado threat because low-level stability is detrimental to it. It can produce hail though. It's all about how well we recover from the storms earlier. That's a huge question mark. Very hard to gauge that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said: Wilmington dropped the severe thunderstorm watch (which was for round one) and now everyone is freaking out on their Facebook page. “I read we’re getting a massive derecho across the whole state. When’s it coming?” 😆 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 14, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 14, 2022 SPC is hinting at a downstream watch. Mesoscale Discussion 1152 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0805 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Areas affected...Northern IN...southern Lower MI...and far northwest OH Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 356... Valid 140105Z - 140230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 356 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat will continue spreading southward across portions of northern IN, southern Lower MI, and far northwest OH this evening. A local spatial extension of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 356 could eventually be warranted in parts of north-central IN. DISCUSSION...A line of convection consisting of multiple different modes will advance southward from southern Lower MI into northern IN and northwest OH this evening. Over far northwest IN, a persistent supercell cluster will continue to pose a risk of damaging gusts, though a tornado cannot be ruled out owing to modest low-level hodograph curvature and related streamwise vorticity amid recovered surface-based inflow. Farther east over northeast IN/south-central Lower Michigan, a bowing segment is moving southeastward at around 40 kt, which has produced 65-75 mph gusts. Between these two areas of convection, a feed of high theta-e air (upper 70s dewpoints and lower 90s temperatures) are supporting deepening updrafts along a consolidating cold pool along the IN/Lower MI border. 55-65 kt of effective bulk shear oriented oblique to the consolidating cold pool could favor additional organization/upscale growth with southward extent -- especially given the strong surface-based instability downstream. Current thinking is that this activity will continue tracking south/southeastward this evening, and a spatial extension of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 356 could eventually be warranted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, OxfordOh_ said: Also not my picture but this was taken on Harrison ave earlier to good not to share! Is the weather made of fabric? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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