Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 13, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 13, 2022 Looks like this is another one of those events where HRRR has no idea what’s going to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUWx2 Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 I feel like all the CAMs are all over the place… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 FV3 🤷🏻♂️ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWsnowhio Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Sitting smack-dab in the enhanced zone. Normally I would be kind of excited about that. Not today....not with this set up, the uncertainty at this point, and the heat ahead. For being a decade in the past, 2012 still resonates pretty fresh around here. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 13, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 13, 2022 Already 85/72. 92 degree heat index. 10:30am. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 30 minutes ago, NWsnowhio said: Sitting smack-dab in the enhanced zone. Normally I would be kind of excited about that. Not today....not with this set up, the uncertainty at this point, and the heat ahead. For being a decade in the past, 2012 still resonates pretty fresh around here. June 29th! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 3km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 13, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 13, 2022 Ok ILX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 13, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 13, 2022 HRRR continues to botch initial storms. Until it gets a handle on that it's useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 13, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 13, 2022 (edited) I'd imagine we're about to see these two clusters combine and turn southeast. Can't imagine it'll commit suicide by continuing into Lake Michigan-modified air when it's got a warm front to ride. Edit: Actually, I don't know. That 60 knot 500mb jet streak might prevent it from diving southeast. This is tough. Edited June 13, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 13, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 13, 2022 Really intense motions 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 13, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 13, 2022 Getting some re-development behind the mess of convection in Wisconsin. This is closer to the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Some signs of development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Columbusbuckeye Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Just now, StormfanaticInd said: Some signs of development You beat me to it! It will be interesting to see what happens with this convection. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 2 hours ago, NWsnowhio said: Sitting smack-dab in the enhanced zone. Normally I would be kind of excited about that. Not today....not with this set up, the uncertainty at this point, and the heat ahead. For being a decade in the past, 2012 still resonates pretty fresh around here. Not to mention there was no morning convection here, so it's been sunny all day thus far. So there's that too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 13, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 13, 2022 SPC mentions the situation is still very uncertain but this may require a moderate risk later once details become clearer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWsnowhio Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Latest Day 1 is out. Mentions upgrade to Moderate may still be warranted... "An upgrade to Moderate Risk may still be warranted across parts of the region (particularly Lower Michigan, northern Indiana and/or Ohio) pending subsequent observational trends and increased confidence in a preferred sub-regional corridor of intense storm development." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 (edited) 15% hatched wind expanded to the Ohio river too it appears Edited June 13, 2022 by OxfordOh_ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 13, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 13, 2022 1 minute ago, OxfordOh_ said: 15% hatched expanded to the Ohio river too it appears Kinda reminds me of a hurricane forecast. They're basically saying it can go anywhere in the hatched area, but the 30% is most likely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 13, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 13, 2022 Decent mesocyclone in Illinois near the Indiana border. HRRR suggests this could turn into a multi-hour supercell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 13, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 13, 2022 Nice surprise to be included in this Mesoscale Discussion 1143 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Areas affected...East-Central IL...Central/Southern IN...Southwest OH...Northern KY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 131729Z - 131930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts may develop over the next few hours. Potential exists for the development of a convective line capable of strong wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Recent surface observations across the Lower/Mid OH Valley sampled a very moist air mass, with dewpoints in the upper 70s/low 80s. Surface temperatures across this region have reached the low 90s. These low-level thermodynamic conditions beneath steep mid-level lapse rates is contributing to extreme instability. Recent mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE over 5000 J/kg and recent RAP soundings show a surface-based LI of -13 to -14 deg C. Mesoanalysis also indicates convective inhibition has eroded across much of the region, despite very warm low to mid-level temperatures. An area of deeper cumulus has developed just northeast of the strongest buoyancy, in the open warm sector well southwest of the warm front. Mesoanalysis reveals this cumulus is within an area of modest moisture convergence likely resultant from a subtle wind shift. Lighting has also been noted within this region during the last half hour. Given the thermodynamic conditions, very strong updrafts/downdrafts are possible. Moderate vertical shear is also in place, suggesting storm organization is possible. Evolution of this development is still uncertain, owing to the weak large-scale forcing for ascent and warm low to mid-level temperatures. However, the overall pattern and presence of extreme buoyancy suggest the potential exists for the development of a well-organized convective line. Most likely corridor for progression of this line would be across central/southern IN and into southwest OH and adjacent northern KY. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 I’m actually surprised they didn’t expand the enhanced with the hatched but they can still do that at 4pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Oppressive is an understatement 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i70split Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Wow! Those really took off around Illinois Indiana border. Anyone know if these are likely to do that swing to the south that happens with this kind of a set up? Or will it skirt by to the north of Indy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: 👀⛈️ HRRR clearly not handling this well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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