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June 11-24, 2022 | Northwest Flow Severe Weather/Ring of Fire


ClicheVortex2014

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39 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

I think we had 80 degree dew points in SW OH back in June 2013, but I don't remember it happening since. And this is a milestone you don't forget (for a while, anyway, apparently)

CVG has officially recorded 80 degree dew points for 3 straight hours. 106 degree heat index.

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Its like diving into a hot bowl of soup, current temp/dew point/feels like imby:

0BE9A461-EAC8-46C9-8F5C-A7077C4FC326.png

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There is some attempt at organized spinning with the IN cluster but not much taking off so to speak. And we've seen this before where you get one monster supercell(one in WI) that starts the MCS rodeo... we'll see. 

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9 years and 1 day ago... I remember hanging out in my garage with my childhood friend waiting for this storm at like 3am. It never came, obviously, but still. Good memory.

Now some of the same areas are being targeted again.

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This fits in very well with derecho climatology

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'derecho alley' in the summer

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Just now, ClicheVortex2014 said:

This fits in very well with derecho climatology

image.png.3067893d139f4727a4af16e68d1a89e2.png

'derecho alley' in the summer

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Indeed. When I saw this on the Day 3 Outlook a couple days ago, my Spidey Senses started tingling. Distinct "Ring of Fire" SE-diving derecho pattern there. image.png.ca2ae40bc2e5b95bb07ed42f19083bff.png

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19 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Dayton is now under a moderate risk. Wasn't expecting this. Still not really expecting much.

 

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Barely south of the moderate but shouldn't matter. Just think at this time yesterday it was just marginal. 😆

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6 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Barely south of the moderate but shouldn't matter. Just think at this time yesterday it was just marginal. 😆

Oh shoot, you're right. I was counting northeast from what I thought was Hamilton county... but the solid hatching line threw me off. I was counting from Butler county. 

Technically, probabilities are valid at 25 miles from a point. So by technicality this would include Dayton, but probably not me. But you know how MCSs are... it could go straight down the moderate risk, but it could easily go just outside of the moderate risk either way. 

The MCS responsible for the moderate risk is still hours from reaching there. I think we might be able to recover even if we get hit by the Indiana mess. No shortage of moisture and EML availability to advect back in.

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Updated ILN disco.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Convection is already developing and starting to move
east/southeast into the forecast area this afternoon.

Into the evening, Severe Thunderstorm Watch #354 is in effect
for parts of the region (west central Ohio, parts of the
Whitewater/Miami Valley, the Tri-State, parts of south central
Ohio and northeast Kentucky). Extreme instability is in place
across this area (4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE). We are waiting to see
if the convection will form a cold pool and propagate southeast
with the 0-3 km shear. If this occurs, damaging winds will be
possible. Still, can not rule out large hail and an isolated
tornado if bowing structures develop. In addition, pwats over 2+
inches will result in efficient heavy rainfall which could
cause some flooding issues. This activity, per some CAMs, should
exit the region between 8 pm and 10 pm. Note: A Heat Advisory
is in effect for the far west/southwest. This may be cancelled
early should thunderstorms appreciably cool the low levels.

For tonight, models continue to indicate that yet another
convectively enhanced mid level disturbance will drop southeast
into the eastern Great Lakes. At the same time, a warm front
will try to pivot northeast. As a low level jet gets going, it
will try to feed unstable air into this feature. This may result
in an MCS or two (depending on CAM solutions). Right now, our
northern and northeast zones will have a threat of more severe
weather should these features move through. Damaging winds will
once again be the primary threat (could be significant). Still,
can not rule out large hail and an isolated tornado.
Additionally, efficient heavy rainfall will be possible that
could result in flooding issues. We will have to watch as some
models try to develop some training convection on the back of
the MCSs as we head into Tuesday morning. This may clip our
northeast zones. It will be very warm and muggy with lows in the
lower to mid 70s.

 

Not to be outdone, ILN upgraded all of us to excessive heat warning.

 

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Clearly some convective overturning in Indiana as a result of the... well, convection. It'll be interesting and telling to see how they recover. Plenty of time given the main severe threat is still in southern Wisconsin and move into Lake Michigan.

 

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Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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3 minutes ago, junior said:

Cute little MCS in SW OH. 

Pretty nasty looking honestly. Charging my phone right now just in case. I think Butler and Warren county will get the worst of it based on recent radar trends.

With how strong these storms are looking, I'll be surprised if we get a round 2 this evening.

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Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

I’m feeling pretty good that Dayton is gonna get spared from the worst of it. Should focus more on Cincinnati metro.

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Agreed. Warren county and south is going to be rough though. 

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