Moderators StretchCT Posted June 4, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted June 4, 2022 Radar with multiple possibilities of being the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 4, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted June 4, 2022 Late afternoon sat - IDK - like I said its not pretty. But its moving at 16-18 mph now if you can see the center. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 4, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted June 4, 2022 A look at the last recon has the center looking like it was just off the coast Same recon had quite a bit of 50-55kt flight level winds and some sfmr in the 40s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 5, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted June 5, 2022 Tropical Storm Alex is currently moving ENE at 20kts with pressure of 993mb and flight level (5000ft) winds of 89kts. SFMR winds at 50kts. Center column is lopsided Spoiler Tropical Storm Alex Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022 1100 AM EDT Sun Jun 05 2022 Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Alex has strengthened a little since the last advisory. The aircraft reported a central pressure near 993 mb and maximum flight-level winds of 89 kt at 850 mb in the southeastern quadrant. However, the maximum reliable SFMR surface wind estimates are near 50 kt, so as mentioned previously the strongest winds may not be mixing down to the surface. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set to a possibly conservative 50 kt. Satellite imagery shows that Alex remains sheared, with the strongest convection to the east and northeast of the center. This was confirmed by the aircraft data, which indicated that the 850 and 700 mb centers were displaced from the surface center. The initial motion is quickly east-northeastward or 060/20 kt. A general east-northeastward motion is expected during the next 24 h or so, with the center of Alex passing north of Bermuda on Monday. After that, the GFS, ECWMF, and Canadian models forecast an eastward motion at a slower forward speed as Alex weakens, becomes extratropical, and becomes a shallow and elongated vortex. The new intensity forecast follows this scenario and is similar to the previous forecast. However, by 72-96 h the forecast track is to the south of the various consensus models, and some adjustment to this part of the forecast may be necessary later. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 12 h. After that, a combination of strong shear, dry air entrainment, and cooler sea surface temperatures along the forecast track should cause Alex to weaken. The cyclone is expected to become extratropical by 48 h and dissipate completely by 120 h. The new intensity forecast has only minor changes from the previous forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Alex is forecast to pass near or just north of Bermuda on Monday, and tropical storm conditions are expected on the island late tonight and Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 30.4N 73.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 31.7N 70.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 33.1N 66.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 34.2N 61.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 34.6N 57.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 08/0000Z 34.9N 53.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 08/1200Z 35.0N 50.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/1200Z 35.5N 47.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven Looks like a real tropical storm now. Convection to the ENE of the center due to shear. Could make it to 65mph. Some of the obs from the recon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 5, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted June 5, 2022 Should be near Bermuda tomorrow morning, TS conditions expected overnight. Some hints it stays on the southern edge of the guidance per NHC disco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 5, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted June 5, 2022 Wide view Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 5, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted June 5, 2022 Closer in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 5, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted June 5, 2022 These are the sonde readings so far. Max winds and surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 5, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted June 5, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 6, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted June 6, 2022 (edited) Alex made it to 70mph/986 overnight as noted by this 2am advisory. It is currently transitioning to extratropical and will be weakening through the day as it reaches colder water and the convection becomes removed. Spoiler Tropical Storm Alex Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022 500 AM AST Mon Jun 06 2022 Alex is looking increasingly less like a tropical cyclone and more like a post-tropical entity. While the low-level circulation is clearly evident on conventional satellite imagery, it is largely devoid of deep central convection, with the nearest cold cloud tops below -60C located more than 200 nm to the northeast. Those well removed colder cloud tops are forming in response to a digging mid-latitude trough that will ultimately lead to Alex's demise. In the meantime, there was a convective band east of Alex that produced tropical-storm-force winds over Bermuda this morning, and these winds will likely continue until the center passes by to the north later today. Earlier Air Force reconnaissance aircraft found flight level winds that still supported an intensity of 60 kt at 0600 UTC. However, assuming some weakening has occurred since then given the current lack of convection near the center, the initial intensity has been reduced to 55 kt for this advisory. Alex is expected to continue moving over cooler waters in an environment of increasing vertical wind shear and dry mid-latitude air, and the cyclone is likely to become extratropical or a remnant low later today. Beyond 36 hours, the GFS and ECMWF forecast an upstream mid-latitude trough to spawn a new surface baroclinic cyclone northeast of Alex, causing the former tropical cyclone to be absorbed at the end of the forecast period. The current NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, though it now moves up extratropical transition to later today. Alex continues to move briskly to the east-northeast at 065/24 kt. The cyclone should remain on this general heading over the next 36 hours or so before it is absorbed. Once again the forecast this cycle is a bit faster than the previous one, blending the consensus aids and an average between the operational GFS and ECMWF runs (GFEX). KEY MESSAGES: 1. Alex is forecast to pass near or just north of Bermuda today, and tropical storm conditions are expected on the island through this afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 33.5N 66.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 34.7N 62.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 07/0600Z 36.7N 56.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 07/1800Z 39.5N 49.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 08/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Papin/Blake Tropical Storm Alex Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022 200 AM AST Mon Jun 06 2022 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS HAVE BEGUN ON BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.9N 68.1W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM W OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES You can see the center is detached from convection and how close it was to Bermuda. Edited June 6, 2022 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 6, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted June 6, 2022 Some tidbits from Accuweather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 7, 2022 Author Moderators Share Posted June 7, 2022 I always find the transitioning to post tropical and being handed off to the high seas forecast as being awkward. Alex transitioned with 60 mph winds and 993mb yesterday late afternoon. Spoiler BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Alex Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022 500 PM AST Mon Jun 06 2022 ...ALEX BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.5N 60.6W ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Alex was located near latitude 35.5 North, longitude 60.6 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving quickly toward the east-northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h). Acceleration toward the east-northeast is expected tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast tonight. Alex is forecast to merge with another non-tropical low on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky Looks big still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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