Tropical Storm Alex | Peak 70mph 986mb |post tropical

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Radar with multiple possibilities of being the center.

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Late afternoon sat - IDK - like I said its not pretty.  But its moving at 16-18 mph now if you can see the center. 

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A look at the last recon has the center looking like it was just off the coast

Same recon had quite a bit of 50-55kt flight level winds and some sfmr in the 40s

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Tropical Storm Alex is currently moving ENE at 20kts with pressure of  993mb and flight level (5000ft) winds of 89kts.  SFMR winds at 50kts.  Center  column is lopsided 

 

Spoiler

Tropical Storm Alex Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012022
1100 AM EDT Sun Jun 05 2022

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate 
that Alex has strengthened a little since the last advisory.  The 
aircraft reported a central pressure near 993 mb and maximum 
flight-level winds of 89 kt at 850 mb in the southeastern quadrant.  
However, the maximum reliable SFMR surface wind estimates are near 
50 kt, so as mentioned previously the strongest winds may not be 
mixing down to the surface. Based on these data, the initial 
intensity is set to a possibly conservative 50 kt.  Satellite 
imagery shows that Alex remains sheared, with the strongest 
convection to the east and northeast of the center.  This was 
confirmed by the aircraft data, which indicated that the 850 and 700 
mb centers were displaced from the surface center.

The initial motion is quickly east-northeastward or 060/20 kt.  A
general east-northeastward motion is expected during the next 24 h
or so, with the center of Alex passing north of Bermuda on Monday.
After that, the GFS, ECWMF, and Canadian models forecast an
eastward motion at a slower forward speed as Alex weakens, becomes
extratropical, and becomes a shallow and elongated vortex.  The
new intensity forecast follows this scenario and is similar to the
previous forecast.  However, by 72-96 h the forecast track is to
the south of the various consensus models, and some adjustment to
this part of the forecast may be necessary later.

Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 12 h.
After that, a combination of strong shear, dry air entrainment, and
cooler sea surface temperatures along the forecast track should
cause Alex to weaken.  The cyclone is expected to become
extratropical by 48 h and dissipate completely by 120 h.  The new
intensity forecast has only minor changes from the previous
forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Alex is forecast to pass near or just north of Bermuda on Monday,
and tropical storm conditions are expected on the island late
tonight and Monday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 30.4N  73.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 31.7N  70.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 33.1N  66.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 34.2N  61.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 34.6N  57.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  08/0000Z 34.9N  53.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  08/1200Z 35.0N  50.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  09/1200Z 35.5N  47.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

Looks like a real tropical storm now.  Convection to the ENE of the center due to shear. Could make it to 65mph.

Some of the obs from the recon.

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Should be near Bermuda tomorrow morning, TS conditions expected overnight.  Some hints it stays on the southern edge of the guidance per NHC disco.

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Wide view

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Closer in

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These are the sonde readings so far.  Max winds and surface

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[StretchCT]

Alex made it to 70mph/986 overnight as noted by this 2am advisory. It is currently transitioning to extratropical and will be weakening through the day as it reaches colder water and the convection becomes removed.  

 

Spoiler

Tropical Storm Alex Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012022
500 AM AST Mon Jun 06 2022

Alex is looking increasingly less like a tropical cyclone and more 
like a post-tropical entity. While the low-level circulation is 
clearly evident on conventional satellite imagery, it is largely 
devoid of deep central convection, with the nearest cold cloud tops 
below -60C located more than 200 nm to the northeast. Those well 
removed colder cloud tops are forming in response to a digging 
mid-latitude trough that will ultimately lead to Alex's demise. In 
the meantime, there was a convective band east of Alex that produced 
tropical-storm-force winds over Bermuda this morning, and these 
winds will likely continue until the center passes by to the north 
later today. Earlier Air Force reconnaissance aircraft found flight 
level winds that still supported an intensity of 60 kt at 0600 UTC. 
However, assuming some weakening has occurred since then given 
the current lack of convection near the center, the initial
intensity has been reduced to 55 kt for this advisory.

Alex is expected to continue moving over cooler waters in an 
environment of increasing vertical wind shear and dry mid-latitude 
air, and the cyclone is likely to become extratropical or a remnant 
low later today. Beyond 36 hours, the GFS and ECMWF forecast an 
upstream mid-latitude trough to spawn a new surface baroclinic 
cyclone northeast of Alex, causing the former tropical cyclone to be 
absorbed at the end of the forecast period. The current NHC 
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, though it 
now moves up extratropical transition to later today.

Alex continues to move briskly to the east-northeast at 065/24 kt. 
The cyclone should remain on this general heading over the next 36 
hours or so before it is absorbed. Once again the forecast this 
cycle is a bit faster than the previous one, blending the consensus 
aids and an average between the operational GFS and ECMWF runs 
(GFEX).

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Alex is forecast to pass near or just north of Bermuda today, and 
tropical storm conditions are expected on the island through this 
afternoon.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0900Z 33.5N  66.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 34.7N  62.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  07/0600Z 36.7N  56.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  07/1800Z 39.5N  49.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  08/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake
 

Tropical Storm Alex Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012022
200 AM AST Mon Jun 06 2022

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS HAVE BEGUN ON BERMUDA...

 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.9N 68.1W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

You can see the center is detached from convection and how close it was to Bermuda.

 

Edited June 6, 2022 by StretchCT

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Some tidbits from Accuweather.

[StretchCT]

I always find the transitioning to post tropical and being handed off to the high seas forecast as being awkward.  Alex transitioned with 60 mph winds and 993mb yesterday late afternoon. 

Spoiler

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Alex Advisory Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012022
500 PM AST Mon Jun 06 2022
 
...ALEX BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.5N 60.6W
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Alex
was located near latitude 35.5 North, longitude 60.6 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving quickly toward the east-northeast 
near 31 mph (50 km/h). Acceleration toward the east-northeast is 
expected tonight. 
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast tonight.  Alex is forecast to 
merge with another non-tropical low on Tuesday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be 
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
 
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
 

Looks big still