Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 8, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 8, 2022 (edited) Yeah I'm somewhat concerned with the tornado threat. Storm mode looks kinda favorable, surface winds may be more backed than it was looking yesterday. One big thing going against the threat, aside from the kinda modest low-level shear, is the kinda skinny instability profile. Like Reed, I could see an enhanced risk for tornadoes but not hatched. If more/fatter instability verifies, maybe then. Edited June 8, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 8, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 8, 2022 No enhanced risk with the 1630z update DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1141 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2022 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AND ARKLATEX/DEEP SOUTH... ..SUMMARY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/MIDWEST AND FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. ..OHIO VALLEY/MIDWEST INCLUDING INDIANA/OHIO/KENTUCKY THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND PROGRESS EASTWARD NEAR THE LOWER WABASH RIVER VICINITY ALONG THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER. A GENERAL TREND OF ABATING CLOUD COVER PRECEDES THE REMNANT MCS/MCV WITH AMPLE INSOLATION IN VICINITY OF A WEST/EAST-ORIENTED FRONT THAT WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TODAY AS A WARM FRONT. MIDDLE/UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS NORTHWARD-SHIFTING FRONT, WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 2000+ J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS KENTUCKY INTO THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF INDIANA/OHIO. UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS/OBSERVATIONAL DATA SAMPLED RELATIVELY STRONG LATE-SPRING MID/HIGH-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST THIS MORNING, AND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL OVERLIE THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT AND DEEPENING SURFACE WAVE. SEVERAL SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF 100-150 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH COULD POTENTIALLY YIELD A FEW TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL. THE SEVERE STORM RISK WILL LIKELY PERSIST EASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH EVENING. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 8, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 8, 2022 Pretty decent sounding in SE IN in the vicinity of some supercells. Instability profile looks more favorable. Nasty sounding around Wilmington near what might be a supercell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 8, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 8, 2022 (edited) Nice little... well, long-track UH track over my house Edited June 8, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 8, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 8, 2022 (edited) How about that? 45 sigtor ingredient contour right over Dayton. I don't remember the last time we've been in the center of a target. Edited June 8, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 1 hour ago, Gerb131 said: timmer likes central Indiana to western sw oh for an enhanced tor risk It's probably one of the rare times Reed Timmer will mention Ohio in a video. And yet, still a 5% risk by the SPC for tornadoes. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 8, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 8, 2022 (edited) Impressive dew point gradient in western Ohio. 20 degree difference in just 3 counties. Edited June 8, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 8, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 8, 2022 Here we go Mesoscale Discussion 1089 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Wed Jun 08 2022 Areas affected...The Ohio River Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 081738Z - 081945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The potential for severe weather, including a few tornadoes, will increase in the coming hours for portions of the Ohio River Valley. A watch will likely be needed to address this potential. DISCUSSION...Afternoon observations show a surface low gradually deepening as it translates east towards the OH River Valley region. Ahead of this low, a surface warm front is identified in both surface observations as well as GOES visible imagery in the form of a northward-advancing cumulus field. A diffuse, but discernible, cold front is also noted advancing eastward with the low. Although instability north of this boundary remains marginal, daytime heating (modulated to a degree by cloud cover) and northward advection of mid/upper 60s dewpoints have bolstered MLCAPE values to near 1000 J/kg. This instability is sufficient for deep convection (evidenced by a few ongoing thunderstorms along the front) despite some lingering inhibition. The northward advance of the warm front should allow favorable buoyancy to spread as far north as the lower half of IN/OH by mid/late afternoon. Aloft, a seasonally strong upper-jet is supporting 40-50 knots of effective bulk shear both along the warm front and across the warm sector to the south. Considerable veering in the lowest 2-3 km is noted in regional VWPs within the warm frontal zone with a nearly unidirectional flow field above this layer. This hodograph structure will support the potential for supercells that may pose all hazards, especially along the surface warm front and near the surface low where low-level SRH will be maximized and storm residence time may be adequate to realize the favorable environment. Initially discrete storms appears likely with a gradual transition to clusters and/or a few line segments possible as storms interact along the boundary (though when this transition will occur this afternoon/evening is uncertain). Regardless, the increase in severe potential is sufficient to warrant a watch in the coming hours. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 8, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 8, 2022 Quite a volatile system for only being a 1008mb low 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 Actually feels like a severe weather day outside today 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gerb131 Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 75/56 in zzv need that warm front to lift 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 8, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 8, 2022 (edited) 2 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Actually feels like a severe weather day outside today Yeah I'd be far more concerned if I didn't think so little of the ceiling of the tornado threat. Hopefully I'm right about that. You don't get favorable storm mode very often around here. Edited June 8, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 Certainly feels like a severe weather day here in Oxford Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 21 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Here we go Mesoscale Discussion 1089 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Wed Jun 08 2022 Areas affected...The Ohio River Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 081738Z - 081945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The potential for severe weather, including a few tornadoes, will increase in the coming hours for portions of the Ohio River Valley. A watch will likely be needed to address this potential. DISCUSSION...Afternoon observations show a surface low gradually deepening as it translates east towards the OH River Valley region. Ahead of this low, a surface warm front is identified in both surface observations as well as GOES visible imagery in the form of a northward-advancing cumulus field. A diffuse, but discernible, cold front is also noted advancing eastward with the low. Although instability north of this boundary remains marginal, daytime heating (modulated to a degree by cloud cover) and northward advection of mid/upper 60s dewpoints have bolstered MLCAPE values to near 1000 J/kg. This instability is sufficient for deep convection (evidenced by a few ongoing thunderstorms along the front) despite some lingering inhibition. The northward advance of the warm front should allow favorable buoyancy to spread as far north as the lower half of IN/OH by mid/late afternoon. Aloft, a seasonally strong upper-jet is supporting 40-50 knots of effective bulk shear both along the warm front and across the warm sector to the south. Considerable veering in the lowest 2-3 km is noted in regional VWPs within the warm frontal zone with a nearly unidirectional flow field above this layer. This hodograph structure will support the potential for supercells that may pose all hazards, especially along the surface warm front and near the surface low where low-level SRH will be maximized and storm residence time may be adequate to realize the favorable environment. Initially discrete storms appears likely with a gradual transition to clusters and/or a few line segments possible as storms interact along the boundary (though when this transition will occur this afternoon/evening is uncertain). Regardless, the increase in severe potential is sufficient to warrant a watch in the coming hours. Wow fun evening ahead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i70split Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 Just got a severe thunderstorm warning for where I am in Northern Morgan County Indiana. Radar indicated hazard of quarter sized hail. Thundering now, let you all know if anything interesting happens 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 8, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 8, 2022 Getting right to it. Decent meso near Seymour, IN. Another solid one to its east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 1 hour ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Nice little... well, long-track UH track over my house Same with my house.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 (edited) Lots of clouds around today...and a nice breeze. Still feels soupy out. Maybe we can get a good storm up this way. Would be nice to break our stormless streak. But more concerned for SW Ohio. Looks like the biggest threat might be hail again? Edited June 8, 2022 by NWOhioChaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 Tornado Watch now up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 maybe somebody put dry ice next to the thermometer at Defiance (1 degree). It's a slightly messed up METAR: METAR: KDFI 081753Z AUTO 11008KT FEW037 SCT120 M17/ A2986 RMK AO2 SLP121 T1172 58024 TSNO $ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Tornado Watch now up Until 9pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bman10 Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Until 9pm. Was hoping I’d be home before storms start rolling in. Get off @ 7 today . be safe and weather aware everyone! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 I just got notified by my employer by a phone call, text, desk phone call, NWS and county EMA all at once!!! I was like!!!! IT"S HAPPENING!!!!!!!!!!!!! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i70split Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 16 minutes ago, i70split said: Just got a severe thunderstorm warning for where I am in Northern Morgan County Indiana. Radar indicated hazard of quarter sized hail. Thundering now, let you all know if anything interesting happens Only heavy straight down rain here, not even a gust of wind. Watching it on radar the core of the cell seemed to turn to the SE as it got to me. Done raining here for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 8, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 8, 2022 (edited) Slightly higher than a low-end tornado watch Edited June 8, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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