June 4-10, 2022 | Severe Storms (Quasi-zonal regime)

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like today turned out to be a pretty active tornado day. Still several warnings out there. I'm in the slight risk for tonight we should end up with a solid MCS moving through in the early morning here. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

8 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

Looks like today turned out to be a pretty active tornado day. Still several warnings out there. I'm in the slight risk for tonight we should end up with a solid MCS moving through in the early morning here. 

Significant wind and/or hail reports in 6 states, too, so far.

[snowlover2]

Yikes!

Quote

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
850 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

KSC039-NEC087-145-080215-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0094.000000T0000Z-220608T0215Z/
Decatur KS-Red Willow NE-Hitchcock NE-
850 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR DECATUR...SOUTHERN RED WILLOW AND SOUTHEASTERN HITCHCOCK
COUNTIES...

At 850 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 7 miles southwest of Danbury to 3 miles southwest of
Oberlin, moving southeast at 40 mph.

THESE ARE DESTRUCTIVE STORMS FOR DECATUR COUNTY.

HAZARD...Baseball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured.
         Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs,
         siding, and vehicles.

Locations impacted include...
Oberlin, Norcatur, Danbury, Jennings, Clayton, Dresden and Leoville.

 

 

[Chinook]

always pay attention to the radar. If you are distracted, have your pets watch it for you.

 

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Soundings in the Plains aren't as crazy as I expected. But wow... that speed shear. 100+ knots in the upper troposphere in June is pretty crazy.

Edited June 8, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

27 active severe warnings... 3 active tornado warnings. Pretty active I guess.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Group of long-lived tornadic supercells in SE CO are moving out of state but remaining tornadic. Ugly radar hole.

Won't be surprised if the supercell in SE CO goes tornadic, too. Apparently the environment is very favorable in the area.

 

Edited June 8, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

5 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Group of long-lived tornadic supercells in SE CO are moving out of state but remaining tornadic. Ugly radar hole.

Won't be surprised if the supercell in SE CO goes tornadic, too. Apparently the environment is very favorable in the area.

 

There it is

 

[snowlover2]

Oh my! Confirmed tornado and 3" hail.

Quote

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
955 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

KSC129-187-080300-
/O.CON.KDDC.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220608T0300Z/
Morton KS-Stanton KS-
955 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL MORTON AND SOUTHWESTERN STANTON COUNTIES...

At 918 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near The Saunders
Elevator, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and three inch hail.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
The Saunders Elevator.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is ongoing. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement
or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid
windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move
to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying
debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3755 10201 3741 10178 3730 10192 3741 10204
      3751 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0254Z 312DEG 17KT 3742 10194

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...3.00 IN

 

 

[snowlover2]

0z 3K NAM looks pretty fun here tomorrow.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Comparison of current radar to most recent HRRR. I'd argue reality is further along in the MCS maturity process than HRRR says. 

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Long-lived embedded tornadic supercell in the evolving MCS

[StormfanaticInd]

I would not be surprised if they issued an enhanced risk tomorrow 

[ClicheVortex2014]

I'm always very cautious with these large slight risks because, chances are, someone's gonna get downgraded. 

It is an interesting twist that they added a 2% tornado area for the OV when there was none prior. Still gonna blindly have no expectations. 

Edited June 8, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

That's a mean MCS

Confirmed embedded tornado south of KC. Debris signature, too

Edited June 8, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

3 areas to watch in the KC area

 

[snowlover2]

Sounds like ILN has some concern over possible tornadic cells today.

Quote

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
628 AM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over Ohio at the beginning of the day will give
way to southerly winds and a warm front developing in the
vicinity of the I-70 corridor this afternoon. A surface low will
enter the CWA from the west and track along this warm frontal
boundary. This low will continue to move eastward and be out of
the region by late evening, with a cold front pushing through
the Ohio Valley around this same time.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A few items to note with today`s forecast. First, while models
are coming into closer agreement in the overall evolution of the
surface features in the region today, finer details are not
likely to be accurately depicted until the incoming convection
and surface wind fields are occurring or have a consensus in the
CAMs later on. That being said, a warm front is expected to
develop over the southwest CWA this morning and lift to the I-70
corridor in the afternoon. The incoming surface low should
track along or just south of it this afternoon and early
evening.

Therein lies the challenge with todays forecast given the
potential for severe weather. Warm fronts cannot be trusted. As
the surface low interacts with it this afternoon, low level wind
shear may support some storms to become tornadic. The primary
threat today is damaging winds and heavy downbursts with
discrete cells or cell clusters. Enough deeper shear is present
to permit discrete storms to produce hail, but it doesn`t look
to be conducive for large hail today.

Current timing would have the region dry through the early
afternoon. Highs will reach within a few degrees of 80 and be
inhibited from eking much higher than this given the increased
cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Shower and thunderstorm activity should be exhibiting a rapid
decrease in coverage in the evening as the surface low quickly
races east and a cold front crosses the area. While a handful
of guidance indicates some wrap around showers over northern
CWA, the overall uncertainty on the evolution of the surface low
will have me leave this out attm. As the cold air interacts with
a moisture laden boundary layer, low stratus is favored for the
overnight hours into early Thursday. Even as the cold front
crosses and there is a few hours of cold advection for the
latter half of the overnight period, low temperatures will not
bottom out too badly and linger in the mid to upper 50s. This is
primarily due to the abundant moisture inhibiting any large
thermal changes that are not directly related to the advection
of a significantly different airmass.

Stratus will lift as the cold air continues to filter in on
northerly/northwest winds but remain a fairly overcast deck
through the day, scattering out in the late day and early
evening. Some of the CAMs are showing showery activity over the
northeastern half of the CWA Thursday. Current thinking is that
the cold air and overturning may spark a few light showers or
passing sprinkles. Have not put this in the forecast for this
update but think that after the convection today it would
deserve a closer look by future shifts.

With the stratus keeping any sunshine at bay and a continued
flow of cool air, temperatures will only reach into the low to
mid 70s.

 

 

[Cincysnow]

New day one

Spoiler

SPC AC 081211 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0711 AM CDT Wed Jun 08 2022 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are most probable across the Ohio Valley/Midwest and from the southern Great Plains across the Deep South. ...OH Valley/Midwest... A weakening MCS is ongoing across the Mid-MS Valley along a warm front. A continued weakening trend is anticipated through midday with a remnant MCV tracking east across central IL/IN. As the warm front advances northeast, a plume of 60s surface dew points combined with pockets of greater insolation to the south and in the wake of the MCV, in conjunction with steepening mid-level lapse rates given the approaching shortwave trough should result in destabilization and a pronounced gradient of MLCAPE this afternoon. Several supercells will likely develop within a belt of strong mid-level westerlies attendant to the shortwave trough and enhanced lower-level flow attendant to the MCV. Should adequate destabilization occur where low-level hodographs are enlarged, potential for a few tornadoes will exist, in addition to scattered damaging winds and large hail. Convection should subside after dusk, but adequate low to deep-layer shear may support an isolated severe threat persisting tonight. ...Southern Great Plains to the Deep South... Evening to early morning guidance has horribly simulated the bulk of ongoing convection, with the 07-09Z HRRR runs at least in the ballpark. The most substantial convection has produced widespread 50-80 mph measured wind gusts in the TX Panhandle with a west/east-oriented cluster plowing south along a cold front surge. While robust MLCIN to the south of this activity renders short-term uncertainty on how this convection will evolve, it appears plausible that some form of a cluster/small MCS may persist east-southeast along the Red River Valley into the diurnal heating cycle. Uncertainty still exists whether an organized east-southeast-moving MCS with attendant damaging wind potential will just keep propagating towards the Ark-La-Tex and Lower MS Valley, or whether it evolves into multiple less-organized clusters with some stronger semi-discrete cells that could pose both a wind and hail threat. For this reason, have deferred on upgrading to a potential cat 3-ENH risk for wind but instead have adjusted the cat 2-SLGT risk for the most probable damaging wind corridor. ...Southeast NM and Far West TX... Relatively moist easterly low-level flow and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate-to-large buoyancy at peak afternoon heating. Mid/upper-level flow will be rather weak, but there will be immense veering of the wind profile with height for modest effective shear of 20-30 kt. This should be adequate for a few low-end supercells initially evolving predominately slow-moving multicell clusters. Isolated severe wind gusts, hail, and a brief tornado will be possible, with activity likely to nocturnally weaken after dusk. ...Carolinas to the Lower Mid-Atlantic States... Strong diurnal heating will support widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. Poor mid-level lapse rates and generally modest deep-layer flow/shear will likely limit storm organization, but steep low-level lapse rates may support a threat of localized damaging winds with the strongest storms. ..Grams/Broyles.. 06/08/2022 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

 

[ElectricStorm]

Nice storm about to move in here. In a lightning delay at work 

[snowlover2]

1 hour ago, Cincysnow said:

New day one

  Reveal hidden contents

SPC AC 081211 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0711 AM CDT Wed Jun 08 2022 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are most probable across the Ohio Valley/Midwest and from the southern Great Plains across the Deep South. ...OH Valley/Midwest... A weakening MCS is ongoing across the Mid-MS Valley along a warm front. A continued weakening trend is anticipated through midday with a remnant MCV tracking east across central IL/IN. As the warm front advances northeast, a plume of 60s surface dew points combined with pockets of greater insolation to the south and in the wake of the MCV, in conjunction with steepening mid-level lapse rates given the approaching shortwave trough should result in destabilization and a pronounced gradient of MLCAPE this afternoon. Several supercells will likely develop within a belt of strong mid-level westerlies attendant to the shortwave trough and enhanced lower-level flow attendant to the MCV. Should adequate destabilization occur where low-level hodographs are enlarged, potential for a few tornadoes will exist, in addition to scattered damaging winds and large hail. Convection should subside after dusk, but adequate low to deep-layer shear may support an isolated severe threat persisting tonight. ...Southern Great Plains to the Deep South... Evening to early morning guidance has horribly simulated the bulk of ongoing convection, with the 07-09Z HRRR runs at least in the ballpark. The most substantial convection has produced widespread 50-80 mph measured wind gusts in the TX Panhandle with a west/east-oriented cluster plowing south along a cold front surge. While robust MLCIN to the south of this activity renders short-term uncertainty on how this convection will evolve, it appears plausible that some form of a cluster/small MCS may persist east-southeast along the Red River Valley into the diurnal heating cycle. Uncertainty still exists whether an organized east-southeast-moving MCS with attendant damaging wind potential will just keep propagating towards the Ark-La-Tex and Lower MS Valley, or whether it evolves into multiple less-organized clusters with some stronger semi-discrete cells that could pose both a wind and hail threat. For this reason, have deferred on upgrading to a potential cat 3-ENH risk for wind but instead have adjusted the cat 2-SLGT risk for the most probable damaging wind corridor. ...Southeast NM and Far West TX... Relatively moist easterly low-level flow and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate-to-large buoyancy at peak afternoon heating. Mid/upper-level flow will be rather weak, but there will be immense veering of the wind profile with height for modest effective shear of 20-30 kt. This should be adequate for a few low-end supercells initially evolving predominately slow-moving multicell clusters. Isolated severe wind gusts, hail, and a brief tornado will be possible, with activity likely to nocturnally weaken after dusk. ...Carolinas to the Lower Mid-Atlantic States... Strong diurnal heating will support widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. Poor mid-level lapse rates and generally modest deep-layer flow/shear will likely limit storm organization, but steep low-level lapse rates may support a threat of localized damaging winds with the strongest storms. ..Grams/Broyles.. 06/08/2022 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

 

They also added a 5% tornado area for most of the OV slight risk.

[Gerb131]

Oklahoma getting morning bangers day after day 

[Gerb131]

excited for potential today. suns out this morning feels like a hailer day 

[Bman10]

I’m excited too! Surpised they didn’t upgrade to enhanced risk 

[Gerb131]

you know how warm fronts leftover mcs mess things up

[Gerb131]

timmer likes central Indiana to western sw oh for an enhanced tor risk