ElectricStorm Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 Looks like today turned out to be a pretty active tornado day. Still several warnings out there. I'm in the slight risk for tonight we should end up with a solid MCS moving through in the early morning here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 8, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 8, 2022 8 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said: Looks like today turned out to be a pretty active tornado day. Still several warnings out there. I'm in the slight risk for tonight we should end up with a solid MCS moving through in the early morning here. Significant wind and/or hail reports in 6 states, too, so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 Yikes! Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Goodland KS 850 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 KSC039-NEC087-145-080215- /O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0094.000000T0000Z-220608T0215Z/ Decatur KS-Red Willow NE-Hitchcock NE- 850 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT FOR DECATUR...SOUTHERN RED WILLOW AND SOUTHEASTERN HITCHCOCK COUNTIES... At 850 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 7 miles southwest of Danbury to 3 miles southwest of Oberlin, moving southeast at 40 mph. THESE ARE DESTRUCTIVE STORMS FOR DECATUR COUNTY. HAZARD...Baseball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured. Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs, siding, and vehicles. Locations impacted include... Oberlin, Norcatur, Danbury, Jennings, Clayton, Dresden and Leoville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 always pay attention to the radar. If you are distracted, have your pets watch it for you. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 8, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 8, 2022 (edited) Soundings in the Plains aren't as crazy as I expected. But wow... that speed shear. 100+ knots in the upper troposphere in June is pretty crazy. Edited June 8, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 8, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 8, 2022 27 active severe warnings... 3 active tornado warnings. Pretty active I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 8, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 8, 2022 (edited) Group of long-lived tornadic supercells in SE CO are moving out of state but remaining tornadic. Ugly radar hole. Won't be surprised if the supercell in SE CO goes tornadic, too. Apparently the environment is very favorable in the area. Edited June 8, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 8, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 8, 2022 5 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Group of long-lived tornadic supercells in SE CO are moving out of state but remaining tornadic. Ugly radar hole. Won't be surprised if the supercell in SE CO goes tornadic, too. Apparently the environment is very favorable in the area. There it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 Oh my! Confirmed tornado and 3" hail. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Dodge City KS 955 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 KSC129-187-080300- /O.CON.KDDC.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220608T0300Z/ Morton KS-Stanton KS- 955 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL MORTON AND SOUTHWESTERN STANTON COUNTIES... At 918 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near The Saunders Elevator, moving southeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and three inch hail. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... The Saunders Elevator. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is ongoing. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3755 10201 3741 10178 3730 10192 3741 10204 3751 10204 TIME...MOT...LOC 0254Z 312DEG 17KT 3742 10194 TORNADO...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...3.00 IN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 0z 3K NAM looks pretty fun here tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 8, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 8, 2022 Comparison of current radar to most recent HRRR. I'd argue reality is further along in the MCS maturity process than HRRR says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 8, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 8, 2022 Long-lived embedded tornadic supercell in the evolving MCS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 I would not be surprised if they issued an enhanced risk tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 8, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 8, 2022 (edited) I'm always very cautious with these large slight risks because, chances are, someone's gonna get downgraded. It is an interesting twist that they added a 2% tornado area for the OV when there was none prior. Still gonna blindly have no expectations. Edited June 8, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 8, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 8, 2022 (edited) That's a mean MCS Confirmed embedded tornado south of KC. Debris signature, too Edited June 8, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 8, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 8, 2022 3 areas to watch in the KC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 Sounds like ILN has some concern over possible tornadic cells today. Quote AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 628 AM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over Ohio at the beginning of the day will give way to southerly winds and a warm front developing in the vicinity of the I-70 corridor this afternoon. A surface low will enter the CWA from the west and track along this warm frontal boundary. This low will continue to move eastward and be out of the region by late evening, with a cold front pushing through the Ohio Valley around this same time. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A few items to note with today`s forecast. First, while models are coming into closer agreement in the overall evolution of the surface features in the region today, finer details are not likely to be accurately depicted until the incoming convection and surface wind fields are occurring or have a consensus in the CAMs later on. That being said, a warm front is expected to develop over the southwest CWA this morning and lift to the I-70 corridor in the afternoon. The incoming surface low should track along or just south of it this afternoon and early evening. Therein lies the challenge with todays forecast given the potential for severe weather. Warm fronts cannot be trusted. As the surface low interacts with it this afternoon, low level wind shear may support some storms to become tornadic. The primary threat today is damaging winds and heavy downbursts with discrete cells or cell clusters. Enough deeper shear is present to permit discrete storms to produce hail, but it doesn`t look to be conducive for large hail today. Current timing would have the region dry through the early afternoon. Highs will reach within a few degrees of 80 and be inhibited from eking much higher than this given the increased cloud cover. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Shower and thunderstorm activity should be exhibiting a rapid decrease in coverage in the evening as the surface low quickly races east and a cold front crosses the area. While a handful of guidance indicates some wrap around showers over northern CWA, the overall uncertainty on the evolution of the surface low will have me leave this out attm. As the cold air interacts with a moisture laden boundary layer, low stratus is favored for the overnight hours into early Thursday. Even as the cold front crosses and there is a few hours of cold advection for the latter half of the overnight period, low temperatures will not bottom out too badly and linger in the mid to upper 50s. This is primarily due to the abundant moisture inhibiting any large thermal changes that are not directly related to the advection of a significantly different airmass. Stratus will lift as the cold air continues to filter in on northerly/northwest winds but remain a fairly overcast deck through the day, scattering out in the late day and early evening. Some of the CAMs are showing showery activity over the northeastern half of the CWA Thursday. Current thinking is that the cold air and overturning may spark a few light showers or passing sprinkles. Have not put this in the forecast for this update but think that after the convection today it would deserve a closer look by future shifts. With the stratus keeping any sunshine at bay and a continued flow of cool air, temperatures will only reach into the low to mid 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincysnow Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 New day one Spoiler SPC AC 081211 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0711 AM CDT Wed Jun 08 2022 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are most probable across the Ohio Valley/Midwest and from the southern Great Plains across the Deep South. ...OH Valley/Midwest... A weakening MCS is ongoing across the Mid-MS Valley along a warm front. A continued weakening trend is anticipated through midday with a remnant MCV tracking east across central IL/IN. As the warm front advances northeast, a plume of 60s surface dew points combined with pockets of greater insolation to the south and in the wake of the MCV, in conjunction with steepening mid-level lapse rates given the approaching shortwave trough should result in destabilization and a pronounced gradient of MLCAPE this afternoon. Several supercells will likely develop within a belt of strong mid-level westerlies attendant to the shortwave trough and enhanced lower-level flow attendant to the MCV. Should adequate destabilization occur where low-level hodographs are enlarged, potential for a few tornadoes will exist, in addition to scattered damaging winds and large hail. Convection should subside after dusk, but adequate low to deep-layer shear may support an isolated severe threat persisting tonight. ...Southern Great Plains to the Deep South... Evening to early morning guidance has horribly simulated the bulk of ongoing convection, with the 07-09Z HRRR runs at least in the ballpark. The most substantial convection has produced widespread 50-80 mph measured wind gusts in the TX Panhandle with a west/east-oriented cluster plowing south along a cold front surge. While robust MLCIN to the south of this activity renders short-term uncertainty on how this convection will evolve, it appears plausible that some form of a cluster/small MCS may persist east-southeast along the Red River Valley into the diurnal heating cycle. Uncertainty still exists whether an organized east-southeast-moving MCS with attendant damaging wind potential will just keep propagating towards the Ark-La-Tex and Lower MS Valley, or whether it evolves into multiple less-organized clusters with some stronger semi-discrete cells that could pose both a wind and hail threat. For this reason, have deferred on upgrading to a potential cat 3-ENH risk for wind but instead have adjusted the cat 2-SLGT risk for the most probable damaging wind corridor. ...Southeast NM and Far West TX... Relatively moist easterly low-level flow and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate-to-large buoyancy at peak afternoon heating. Mid/upper-level flow will be rather weak, but there will be immense veering of the wind profile with height for modest effective shear of 20-30 kt. This should be adequate for a few low-end supercells initially evolving predominately slow-moving multicell clusters. Isolated severe wind gusts, hail, and a brief tornado will be possible, with activity likely to nocturnally weaken after dusk. ...Carolinas to the Lower Mid-Atlantic States... Strong diurnal heating will support widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. Poor mid-level lapse rates and generally modest deep-layer flow/shear will likely limit storm organization, but steep low-level lapse rates may support a threat of localized damaging winds with the strongest storms. ..Grams/Broyles.. 06/08/2022 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 Nice storm about to move in here. In a lightning delay at work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 1 hour ago, Cincysnow said: New day one Reveal hidden contents SPC AC 081211 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0711 AM CDT Wed Jun 08 2022 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are most probable across the Ohio Valley/Midwest and from the southern Great Plains across the Deep South. ...OH Valley/Midwest... A weakening MCS is ongoing across the Mid-MS Valley along a warm front. A continued weakening trend is anticipated through midday with a remnant MCV tracking east across central IL/IN. As the warm front advances northeast, a plume of 60s surface dew points combined with pockets of greater insolation to the south and in the wake of the MCV, in conjunction with steepening mid-level lapse rates given the approaching shortwave trough should result in destabilization and a pronounced gradient of MLCAPE this afternoon. Several supercells will likely develop within a belt of strong mid-level westerlies attendant to the shortwave trough and enhanced lower-level flow attendant to the MCV. Should adequate destabilization occur where low-level hodographs are enlarged, potential for a few tornadoes will exist, in addition to scattered damaging winds and large hail. Convection should subside after dusk, but adequate low to deep-layer shear may support an isolated severe threat persisting tonight. ...Southern Great Plains to the Deep South... Evening to early morning guidance has horribly simulated the bulk of ongoing convection, with the 07-09Z HRRR runs at least in the ballpark. The most substantial convection has produced widespread 50-80 mph measured wind gusts in the TX Panhandle with a west/east-oriented cluster plowing south along a cold front surge. While robust MLCIN to the south of this activity renders short-term uncertainty on how this convection will evolve, it appears plausible that some form of a cluster/small MCS may persist east-southeast along the Red River Valley into the diurnal heating cycle. Uncertainty still exists whether an organized east-southeast-moving MCS with attendant damaging wind potential will just keep propagating towards the Ark-La-Tex and Lower MS Valley, or whether it evolves into multiple less-organized clusters with some stronger semi-discrete cells that could pose both a wind and hail threat. For this reason, have deferred on upgrading to a potential cat 3-ENH risk for wind but instead have adjusted the cat 2-SLGT risk for the most probable damaging wind corridor. ...Southeast NM and Far West TX... Relatively moist easterly low-level flow and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate-to-large buoyancy at peak afternoon heating. Mid/upper-level flow will be rather weak, but there will be immense veering of the wind profile with height for modest effective shear of 20-30 kt. This should be adequate for a few low-end supercells initially evolving predominately slow-moving multicell clusters. Isolated severe wind gusts, hail, and a brief tornado will be possible, with activity likely to nocturnally weaken after dusk. ...Carolinas to the Lower Mid-Atlantic States... Strong diurnal heating will support widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. Poor mid-level lapse rates and generally modest deep-layer flow/shear will likely limit storm organization, but steep low-level lapse rates may support a threat of localized damaging winds with the strongest storms. ..Grams/Broyles.. 06/08/2022 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT They also added a 5% tornado area for most of the OV slight risk. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gerb131 Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 Oklahoma getting morning bangers day after day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gerb131 Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 excited for potential today. suns out this morning feels like a hailer day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bman10 Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 I’m excited too! Surpised they didn’t upgrade to enhanced risk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gerb131 Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 you know how warm fronts leftover mcs mess things up 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gerb131 Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 timmer likes central Indiana to western sw oh for an enhanced tor risk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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