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June 4-10, 2022 | Severe Storms (Quasi-zonal regime)


ClicheVortex2014

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   Mesoscale Discussion 1053
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0235 PM CDT Mon Jun 06 2022

   Areas affected...Portions of far northern KY into IN/OH and far
   southeastern Lower MI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 061935Z - 062200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated threat for strong to damaging winds may
   persist this afternoon. Watch issuance appears unlikely at this
   time.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple small clusters and cells are ongoing this
   afternoon from far northern KY into central/eastern IN and parts of
   OH. Once such cluster produced a couple of damaging wind reports
   across southwestern OH earlier today before weakening. Around
   500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is present across these areas owing to
   modest diurnal heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass.
   Mid-level west-southwesterly winds are not overly strong at the
   moment, with slightly greater flow present with northward extent
   across IN/OH and far southeastern Lower MI. Still, around 25-35 kt
   of effective bulk shear is contributing to modest organization with
   the ongoing convection. Strong/gusty downdraft winds capable of
   producing occasional damage should continue to be the main threat
   with this activity as it spreads northeastward through the rest of
   the afternoon. The most organized cluster is presently over far
   northern KY and southeastern IN, moving into southwestern OH. The
   eastern extent of the severe threat will be constrained by rapidly
   decreasing instability in eastern OH. Current expectations are for
   the overall wind threat to remain fairly isolated over the next few
   hours, and watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

   ..Gleason/Mosier.. 06/06/2022

 

 

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  URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 313
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   405 PM EDT Mon Jun 6 2022

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Southern Indiana
     Western and Central Kentucky

   * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until
     1000 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
     Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms continues to move eastward across
   western Kentucky into more of central Kentucky and southern Indiana.
   A few stronger winds gusts are possible with this line as it moves
   eastward over the next few hours.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
   statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles southeast of
   Bowling Green KY to 30 miles north northwest of Louisville KY. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
   24035.

   ...Mosier

 

 

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   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 314
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   220 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Western and Northern Nebraska
     Southwest South Dakota
     Eastern Wyoming

   * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until
     900 PM MDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter possible
     Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
   intensity over the next few hours from eastern WY into southwest SD
   and western/northern NE. The environment supports supercells capable
   of hail, some of which could be 2 inches in diameter. A few strong
   wind gusts are possible as well.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
   statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles south southwest
   of Mullen NE to 50 miles north northeast of Gillette WY. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 313...

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
   31035.

   ...Mosier

 

 

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   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 315
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   245 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Eastern and Southeastern Colorado
     Western Kansas
     Oklahoma Panhandle

   * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until
     1000 PM MDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to increase in coverage and
   intensity across eastern CO over the next few hours, before then
   moving downstream into western KS and adjacent portions of the OK
   Panhandle. Some of these thunderstorms could be severe and capable
   of producing large to very large hail and strong wind gusts.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
   statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west of La
   Junta CO to 30 miles southeast of Garden City KS. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 313...WW 314...

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
   27035.

   ...Mosier/Guyer

 

 

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Nasty warned cell in SW SD with possible tennis ball hail and labeled possible tornado.

Quote
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
403 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022

SDC047-062230-
/O.CON.KUNR.SV.W.0055.000000T0000Z-220606T2230Z/
Fall River SD-
403 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM MDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN FALL RIVER COUNTY...

At 403 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Smithwick, or
16 miles southeast of Hot Springs, moving southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Tennis ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northeastern Fall River County, north of Oelrichs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a dangerous storm. Prepare immediately for large destructive
hail capable of producing significant damage. People outside should
move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 4324 10340 4339 10330 4339 10300 4306 10300
      4306 10301
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 296DEG 36KT 4328 10321

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

 

 

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1 hour ago, snowlover2 said:

Nasty warned cell in SW SD with possible tennis ball hail and labeled possible tornado.

 

That one had 4" hail on GRLevel3/GRlevel2, which ended up verifying with a report of 2" at Oelrichs. It got the worst hail  just after it was outside of my radius for Custer, SD. It must have been an interestingly dark cloud, for sure.

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  • Meteorologist

This tornado warning in Nebraska says this supercell is producing sub-severe hail. Yes, that's 75 dBz with a big hail spike. Not sure what's going on there. Maybe it's just being held aloft right now?

image.thumb.png.d5111b859490c6bbee895785481f3256.png

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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1 hour ago, NWOhioChaser said:

Flash flooding ongoing south in Putnam county.  A rather large portion of the area received widespread 3-4".

FB_IMG_1654560677973.jpg

I was just over in Findlay. There were some puddles in some areas. I did not see the 60mph winds though. Now this area really got dumped on today. 

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42 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

This tornado warning in Nebraska says this supercell is producing sub-severe hail. Yes, that's 75 dBz with a big hail spike. Not sure what's going on there. Maybe it's just being held aloft right now?

image.thumb.png.d5111b859490c6bbee895785481f3256.png

That would seemingly be a mistake. I always think that 1.00" is possible if GRLevel3 says 1.50".  This storm really has a quickly developing hook shape, but no high velocities or tornado warning at this time.

Edited by Chinook
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  • Meteorologist
24 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Watching the Reds on TV and man did it just open up in Cincy. They can't even get the tarp completely over the infield.

1.5" pwat in Wilmington, and based on mesoanalysis, it's likely somewhere in 1.6"-1.7" range in Cincinnati. Not quite tropical but it's not that time of year yet. I'm sure the thermo profile looks better over Cincinnati than Wilmington because Cincinnati has had more time to recover. 

image.thumb.png.a84c54d7af051ccefda97be995ba9699.png

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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