Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 6, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 6, 2022 Definitely wrong with my initial assumption. Enhanced risk maintained... no noticeable changes to me. DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2022 VALID 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ..SUMMARY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL, INTENSE DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NEBRASKA, KANSAS, AND OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. ..01Z UPDATE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE SHORT-WAVE OF INTEREST HAS PROGRESSED THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES RIDGE AND IS NOW MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER. EARLY-DAY CONVECTION HAS STABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS BUT CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY EXPANDING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL NE INTO NORTHWEST KS, AS WELL AS A FEW CLUSTERS ACROSS KS. 35KT LLJ HAS DEVELOPED INTO CENTRAL OK AND FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET. IT APPEARS MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL EVOLVE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THEN POTENTIALLY MATURE INTO A LARGER MCS BEFORE SPREADING INTO OK LATER TONIGHT. 00Z SOUNDING FROM DDC STILL EXHIBITED SOME INHIBITION, BUT A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY DOES EXTEND ACROSS WESTERN OK INTO SOUTHWEST KS. THE EVOLVING MCS WILL LIKELY TRACK ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT TONIGHT, DRIVEN IN LARGE PART BY LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. EARLIER THOUGHTS REGARDING THE PROSPECT FOR WIND/HAIL REMAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 6, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 6, 2022 Looks like S KS is trying 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 6, 2022 Share Posted June 6, 2022 0z HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 6, 2022 Share Posted June 6, 2022 There's the watch. Quote URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 312 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 845 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Kansas Northern Oklahoma * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 845 PM until 300 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop and organize across southern Kansas this evening, and spread southeastward into northern Oklahoma overnight. The potential exists for a bowing line of storms producing relatively widespread damaging wind gusts later tonight. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 115 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northeast of Hutchinson KS to 65 miles south of Ponca City OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 310...WW 311... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30030. ...Hart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 6, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 6, 2022 Looking kinda clustered but I could see a supercell evolving out of this mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted June 6, 2022 Share Posted June 6, 2022 Severe watch up for my area with pretty decent wind/hail probs. Could get pretty interesting here later tonight... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 6, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 6, 2022 Holy 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 6, 2022 Share Posted June 6, 2022 Yeesh did you order a dominant supercell @ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 6, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 6, 2022 (edited) Alright this should be interesting. Tornado threat is questionable due to ~10-15 knots 0-1km shear but this should become a beast. It's also moving into stronger low-level winds. Edited June 6, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 6, 2022 Share Posted June 6, 2022 A supercell north of Goodland that dropped a 4" hailstone and had two funnel clouds reported Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 6, 2022 Share Posted June 6, 2022 The S KS supercell now has possible 2" hail. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Dodge City KS 928 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 KSC007-033-060300- /O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0091.000000T0000Z-220606T0300Z/ Barber KS-Comanche KS- 928 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN BARBER AND NORTHEASTERN COMANCHE COUNTIES... At 928 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located very near Sun City, moving south at 15 mph. HAZARD...Two inch hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Barber and northeastern Comanche Counties. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3738 9906 3739 9903 3738 9901 3739 9901 3745 9884 3747 9869 3718 9854 3711 9907 TIME...MOT...LOC 0228Z 352DEG 15KT 3735 9892 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 6, 2022 Share Posted June 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: The S KS supercell now has possible 2" hail. I wouldn't want to be under that storm that's for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 6, 2022 Share Posted June 6, 2022 Up to baseball sized now! Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Dodge City KS 936 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 KSC007-033-060300- /O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0091.000000T0000Z-220606T0300Z/ Barber KS-Comanche KS- 936 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN BARBER AND EAST CENTRAL COMANCHE COUNTIES... At 935 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Sun City, moving south at 15 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR Sun City and Lake City. HAZARD...Baseball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured. Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs, siding, and vehicles. Locations impacted include... Lake City and Sun City. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3733 9906 3747 9869 3718 9854 3711 9907 TIME...MOT...LOC 0235Z 352DEG 15KT 3732 9891 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 6, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 6, 2022 The fact that the warning doesn't mention damaging winds suggests to me that they believe the storm is elevated. It's mean looking though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 6, 2022 Share Posted June 6, 2022 Couple of 1.75" hail reports near Sun City KS from that nasty cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 6, 2022 Share Posted June 6, 2022 NWS Norman warning on that cell says tennis ball hail and 70mph winds. No thanks! Quote BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Norman OK 1004 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northeastern Woods County in northwestern Oklahoma... Northwestern Alfalfa County in northwestern Oklahoma... * Until 1100 PM CDT. * At 1004 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Aetna, moving south at 25 mph. HAZARD...Tennis ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. * Locations impacted include... Alva, Cherokee, Ingersoll and Capron. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is a dangerous storm. Prepare immediately for large destructive hail capable of producing significant damage. People outside should move to shelter inside a strong building, and stay away from windows. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3700 9852 3674 9829 3672 9904 3700 9909 TIME...MOT...LOC 0304Z 343DEG 21KT 3712 9892 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 6, 2022 Share Posted June 6, 2022 Cell is back up to baseball hail. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1020 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 KSC007-033-060345- /O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0092.000000T0000Z-220606T0345Z/ Barber KS-Comanche KS- 1020 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN BARBER AND SOUTHEASTERN COMANCHE COUNTIES... At 1019 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Aetna, moving southeast at 25 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR Aetna, and rural areas of southwest Barber county and southeast Comanche county. HAZARD...Baseball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured. Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs, siding, and vehicles. Locations impacted include... Hardtner and Aetna. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3712 9910 3721 9878 3700 9853 3700 9907 TIME...MOT...LOC 0319Z 326DEG 21KT 3710 9886 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted June 6, 2022 Share Posted June 6, 2022 7 hours ago, snowlover2 said: 0z HRRR Hate to bring up the "D" word..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted June 6, 2022 Share Posted June 6, 2022 Looks like I ended up with a severe thunderstorm warning last night. Overall a pretty solid event, got so see some pretty nice lightning on my way to work this morning too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted June 6, 2022 Share Posted June 6, 2022 Maybe something will produce tonight and give us a show for a change. Doubtful though 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 6, 2022 Share Posted June 6, 2022 1 hour ago, NWOhioChaser said: Maybe something will produce tonight and give us a show for a change. Doubtful though Maybe I will get a thundersprinkle 🙄 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted June 6, 2022 Share Posted June 6, 2022 It’s been a while since I’ve been here, I’m vacationing again, this time in Texas. I will be back home on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted June 6, 2022 Share Posted June 6, 2022 I saw a Mesocyclone in Grapevine, TX on Friday. (No photos, which is a huge shame) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 6, 2022 Share Posted June 6, 2022 Not liking today. Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 6, 2022 Share Posted June 6, 2022 Warnings coming out on a bow line about to move into Cincinnati and maybe eventually up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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