ElectricStorm Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 Looks like this morning MCS is stronger than expected here. Wonder if that will hurt our chances for a strong MCS tonight. Might not matter as much since it will be an overnight event though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 The 13z day 1 outlook says confidence is still too low for an upgrade to moderate but they also say a derecho is possible. Quote Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0720 AM CDT Sun Jun 05 2022 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN NE TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL OK... ...SUMMARY... Significant severe thunderstorms producing very large hail, intense damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible across parts of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska from late afternoon through tonight. ...OK/KS/NE... Although alluded to as a possibility in the 06Z outlook, confidence is too low to warrant an upgrade to a cat 4/MDT risk. Worst-case scenario could still support a derecho occurring this evening into the overnight somewhere in the region. A progressive MCS, which produced mainly strong wind gusts and a few measured severe early this morning, continues across far southeast KS and north-central to northeast OK. This MCS has not been terribly well-simulated by most CAM guidance, with the 00Z HRW-NSSL closest to reality. It's MCV will seemingly shift into the Ozark Plateau. Deep convection along its southwest flank may not entirely decay as low-level warm theta-e advection persists atop the convective outflow, a scenario supported by the HRW-NSSL. A farther south evolution of convective outflow would clearly suppress destabilization in eastern OK that is advertised by the bulk of guidance. Regardless of where convective outflow ultimately ends up, a very unstable air mass is expected to its west centered on western OK. Very steep mid-level lapse rates of 8.5-9 C/km will overspread upper 60s boundary-layer dew points to yield large buoyancy with MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg. Modified air mass recovery is expected in the wake of the outflow across western parts of KS/NE. Guidance differs substantially with the degree of convective development near the outflow/dryline intersection centered around northwest OK. The HRW-NSSL, 00Z HRW-ARW, and 06Z NAM-NEST all suggest convection will develop around early evening near this intersection and along the cool side of the remnant outflow boundary into south-central KS as the low-level jet intensifies. This scenario would yield quick upscale growth and probable forward propagation south-southeast along the MLCAPE gradient. The 06Z HRRR and subsequent runs indicate no sustained deep convection occurring in the OK/KS border area during this time frame, despite having uncapped forecast soundings. The overall intensity and coverage of the severe threat with southern/eastern extent in OK will be modulated based on how far south/west this morning's MCS affects instability, and whether an MCS can develop during the evening versus overnight. A more probable convective signal exists along the lee trough/dryline across western NE to the KS/CO border. Robust boundary-layer heating to the west of the dryline will remove MLCIN for late afternoon scattered thunderstorm development. Several initial supercells in this regime will have the potential for significant severe hail given such steep mid-level lapse rates. Consolidating cold pools will likely yield upscale growth into a maturing MCS towards south-central NE and central KS during the evening. The overall intensity/coverage of the severe wind threat with this MCS will be modulated by whether a separate MCS will be simultaneously ongoing in far southern KS and OK. If the latter does not develop, a more favorable regime for significant severe wind gusts would be possible across central KS and then shifting into northern OK overnight. ...Interior Northwest... Within the left exit region of an intense upper jet centered on northern CA and southern OR, scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon from eastern OR across ID into a portion of western MT. Elongated, straight-line hodographs will encourage a few splitting supercells. However, buoyancy will likely remain weak with moderate mid-level lapse rates and below-normal surface temperatures. This suggests that isolated severe hail will be the primary hazard, with locally strong wind gusts a secondary threat. ..Grams/Broyles.. 06/05/2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 Keeping it enhanced at the 1630z update but also mention moderate could still be needed later. Quote DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2022 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA/KANSAS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA... ..SUMMARY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL, INTENSE DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA, KANSAS, AND NEBRASKA FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ..KANSAS/NEBRASKA/OKLAHOMA A SEMI-ORGANIZED MCS CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD AT MIDDAY ACROSS EASTERN/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. EPISODIC PULSE-TYPE SEVERE CORES MAY PERSIST ON ITS WESTERN FLANK FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON WHILE IT OTHERWISE SPREADS TOWARD THE OZARK PLATEAU AND ARKLATEX VICINITY. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL ON ITS WESTERN FLANK IS THE MOST PROBABLE RISK, BUT SOME DIURNALLY RENEWED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IS ALSO PLAUSIBLE DOWNSTREAM. TO THE WEST OF THIS MCS AND NEAR/WEST OF ITS RELATED OUTFLOW, A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA. 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA FEATURED SEMI-COOL MID-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES FOR EARLY JUNE AS NOTED FROM DODGE CITY/NORTH PLATTE OBSERVED SOUNDINGS WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -12C TO -13C, ALTHOUGH A NOTABLE CAPPING INVERSION WAS NOTED TO THE SOUTHWEST (12Z AMARILLO SOUNDING AROUND 14C AT 700 MB). RELATED HIGH PLAINS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME WILL PERSIST AND MODESTLY ADVECT/RECOVER EASTWARD TODAY ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE LATE-NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MCS NOW OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL BE ATOP MID/UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS, WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AMPLE BUOYANCY WITH UPWARDS OF 3000+ J/KG MLCAPE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR. STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO INITIALLY DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN/AROUND PEAK HEATING A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN (BUT STILL VERY PLAUSIBLE) ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA IN VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE VICINITY. MULTIPLE SUB-REGIONAL CORRIDORS OF SEVERAL INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. THIS INCLUDES POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE LAPSE RATES/BUOYANCY RESERVOIR AND MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, WHICH WILL BE ACCENTUATED BY RELATIVELY STRONG WEST/NORTHWESTERLY HIGH-LEVEL WINDS. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. CONSOLIDATING COLD POOLS WILL LIKELY YIELD UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MATURING MCS TOWARDS SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING. THE OVERALL INTENSITY/COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE WIND THREAT WITH THIS MCS WILL BE MODULATED BY WHETHER A SEPARATE MCS WILL BE SIMULTANEOUSLY DEVELOPING/ONGOING IN FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING/SPATIAL UNCERTAINTIES, AGGREGATE METEOROLOGICAL SCENARIO SUGGESTS A RELATIVELY HIGH NET POTENTIAL/PROBABILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. A MODERATE RISK UPGRADE COULD STILL BE WARRANTED LATER TODAY PENDING GREATER CONFIDENCE IN A CONFINED CORRIDOR OF INTENSE STORM DEVELOPMENT INCLUDING HIGHER-END WIND POTENTIAL THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 Marginal risk expanded into west OH and SEMI on updated day 2. They mention not enough confidence at this time to include greater probabilities. 2% tornado area added also which isn't too surprising. Quote DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2022 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ..SUMMARY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE MONDAY FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE OZARKS, MID-SOUTH, AND MIDWEST. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. STILL, INCREASING MID/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A JET WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. 40-50+ KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LONG/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS ALOFT WILL LIKELY FAVOR SUPERCELLS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST ACROSS THESE AREAS OWING TO PRIOR CONVECTION AND RELATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHUNTING RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAINLY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. STILL, AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN WY INTO SD/NE/KS BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS. MODESTLY STEEPENED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALSO OVERSPREAD THIS REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 12 HREF MEMBERS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS WITH ROBUST MID-LEVEL UH WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT WHILE POSING A THREAT FOR BOTH LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. HAVE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK FROM SOUTHEASTERN CO/WESTERN KS NORTHWARD TO ENCOMPASS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SUPERCELL POTENTIAL IN A FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN CO AND VICINITY, MODEST LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD EVENTUALLY ENCOURAGE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD EASTWARD. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MANY INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THIS AREA, BUT WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY SUPERCELLS OR MULTICELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP. ONE OR MORE SMALL BOWING CLUSTERS MAY ULTIMATELY DEVELOP ACROSS KS MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND POSE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SEVERE/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..OZARKS INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND MIDWEST THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN EXPANSIVE, REMNANT MCS ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MONDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARKS. AS AN MCV AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE DAY, ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR. MID-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT FORECAST TO BE OVERLY STRONG, BUT 20-30 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MODEST THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION. AS DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS AND INSTABILITY GRADUALLY INCREASES, MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MAINLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THESE REGIONS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. HAVE EXPANDED THE MARGINAL RISK FOR WIND FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST TO THE MIDWEST TO ACCOUNT FOR PROBABLE AREAS OF MULTICELL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. THERE WAS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN A MORE FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF SEVERE POTENTIAL TO INCLUDE GREATER SEVERE WIND PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..GLEASON.. 06/05/2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 Tomorrow will be heavily dependent on what happens to today's possible mcs/derecho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 18z HRRR for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 ILN taking more notice about tomorrow in the new afternoon update. Quote .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The short term period turns a bit more active with the approach of a well-defined/compact S/W by late afternoon into the evening. This convectively-enhanced S/W, likely with a well- defined MCV, will move into the western OH Vly by early afternoon. A rather quick uptick in LL moisture/moisture advection will coincide with some increased cloud cover locally with the approach of this feature. Until we get to the SHRA/TSRA, fcst soundings continue to show decent mixing in the BL through at least 21z with steepening LL lapse rates supporting breezy conditions. SSW winds around 10-15 MPH, and gusts to around 25 MPH, are expected during the afternoon Monday. This will occur ahead of the shield of SHRA/TSRA, which will be knocking on our western doorstep likely by 21z or so. Guidance has trended a bit more compact/robust with the convectively-enhanced S/W that will approach the ILN FA during the latter part of the daytime period. There may be one or more MCV structures within the convective complex, which will approach the ILN FA during a typically diurnally favorable time period. While some solutions have trended a bit more aggressive with the instby/destabilization, there is not yet a cohesive signal on just how much SBCAPE will be able to develop with rather poor midlevel lapse rates to contend with. That being said, the midlevel flow is sufficient, with deep-layer/effective shear on the order of 25+kts or so, to suggest some maintenance of organization with the convection as it spills into the local area late afternoon through the evening. The LL shear will actually be a bit better than the deeper-layer shear, with some hints of backing sfc winds and better directional shear in the LL immediately ahead of the compact MCV/LL low structure. Any convective structure that is able to orient itself more in a N-S, or even NW-SE, direction is one that may pose an isolated threat for strong, if not damaging, winds. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty regarding how this is going to unfold given the questions of deeper-layer destabilization owing to poor midlevel lapse rates, but suffice to say that the forcing and lift will become more than sufficient as we progress later into the day/evening. This will all occur in an environment with PWATs in excess of 1.5", suggesting, too, that efficient rain rates can be expected with any/all activity with locally heavy rain possible with activity that moves over the same areas in a training fashion. Although most areas can expect to see one half to three quarters of an inch of rain, some spots will likely pick up in excess of 1 inch of rain through the nighttime period. The depiction of a compact S/W and attendant MCV structure into the evening/overnight has certainly increased the degree to which this evolution will be watched. With a more compact LL pressure pattern, the associated wind fields may increase rather substantially into the ILN FA late in the evening into the overnight hours, with some solutions showing a 50-55+ kt H8 LLJ developing into the local area past midnight. This is, of course, dependent on the track and strength of the LL low center. This increase in LL speed shear, even in an environment lacking better sfc-based (or deep-layer) instby, will be watched carefully as it may not take as strong of an updraft/downdraft structure to translate stronger winds to the surface. Will add mention of this low potential threat for strong to isolated damaging winds and locally heavy rain to the HWO, even with the aforementioned uncertainties, mainly for locations near/W of I-75 corridor. Widespread SHRA/TSRA will begin to taper off from W to E toward daybreak, with the W-E oriented sfc front still trailing well back to the W near/N of the I-70 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 18z HRRR for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 Supercell with 2" hail in N KS. Quote BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Hastings NE 243 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 The National Weather Service in Hastings has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northern Rooks County in north central Kansas... Southwestern Smith County in north central Kansas... Northwestern Osborne County in north central Kansas... Southern Phillips County in north central Kansas... * Until 330 PM CDT. * At 242 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Phillipsburg to 8 miles southwest of Kirwin to near Webster State Park, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...Two inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Severe thunderstorms will be near... Kirwin around 300 PM CDT. Other locations in the path of these severe thunderstorms include Alton, Stockton, Woodston. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... These are dangerous storms. Prepare immediately for large destructive hail capable of producing significant damage. People outside should move to shelter inside a strong building, and stay away from windows. && LAT...LON 3975 9887 3952 9886 3926 9903 3937 9955 3969 9950 3978 9939 TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 274DEG 18KT 3974 9924 3956 9921 3942 9939 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 Staying with enhanced on the 20z update. Quote DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2022 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA/KANSAS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA... ..SUMMARY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL, INTENSE DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NEBRASKA, KANSAS, AND OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ..20Z UPDATE NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ENHANCED RISK EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF NE ACROSS KS AND INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL OK. A ROBUST SUPERCELL PRODUCING LARGE HAIL HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL KS ON THE EASTERN EXTENT OF PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IN WESTERN KS. IT REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR WHEN/WHERE ADDITIONAL INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ALONG A DRYLINE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN KS TO NORTHWESTERN OK VICINITY. BUT, WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL CONTRIBUTING TO A SUBSTANTIAL CAP ACROSS THIS AREA BASED ON RECENT MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR MORE PROBABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NE, NORTHWESTERN KS, AND FAR EASTERN CO ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW OCCURS AND A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE EJECTS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS MAY ALREADY BE OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN NE. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN BE SUSTAINED. OTHERWISE, A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET THAT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD AID IN UPSCALE GROWTH OF CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS AND PERHAPS NORTHERN OK. INTENSE, SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THIS EVOLUTION INTO A BOWING MCS OCCURS. BUT, THERE IS STILL SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MOST FAVORED CORRIDOR FOR THIS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT MCS. SOME EXPANSION TO THE MARGINAL RISK HAS BEEN MADE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OR INTO EASTERN WA BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONAL AND RADAR TRENDS. ISOLATED HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER CORES THAT CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1038 FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SHORT-TERM SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GLEASON.. 06/05/2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 Quote Mesoscale Discussion 1039 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 PM CDT Sun Jun 05 2022 Areas affected...parts of northern and central Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 052012Z - 052215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Convection developing over portions of north-central Kansas seems likely to increase in coverage over the next couple of hours, turning southeastward with time. WW may be required. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a small cluster of strong updrafts over the Phillips/Rooks County KS vicinity, northeast of the more cloudy/capped airmass that lingers across southwestern KS at this time. This convection is occurring within the gradient on the eastern fringe of the axis of greatest mixed-layer CAPE over western Kansas, but still within a thermodynamic environment sufficient to support severe potential -- mainly in the form of large hail. Various CAM runs differ with respect to convective evolution with time, and given effects of the prior/overnight MCS, uncertainty persists in the short term. Still, it appears likely that this cluster will gradually increase in coverage, and shift southeastward with time, on the northeastern fringe of the more capped environment. Given the amply veering/increasing flow field with height supporting potential for severe weather, watch issuance is being considered for portions of the central Kansas vicinity. ..Goss/Guyer.. 06/05/2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 Quote Mesoscale Discussion 1040 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Sun Jun 05 2022 Areas affected...Western Nebraska into Eastern Colorado and northwest Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 052016Z - 052215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The probability of damaging winds and large hail is increasing as thunderstorms develop from northwest Nebraska into eastern Colorado and northwest Kansas. Trends will continue to be monitored, and a watch is possible. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms initiating in the vicinity of a surface low along the western NE/SD border have shown periodic intensification over the past hour with a general increase in storm coverage. To the south, initial attempts at initiation are noted along a diffuse surface trough along the CO/NE border and into east-central CO. Additional attempts at initiation are possible as a mid-level wave (noted in afternoon water-vapor imagery) moves across the region. Although most of this activity is developing within a more deeply-mixed air mass, MLCAPE values in the 500-1000 J/kg range, coupled with 30-40 knot zonal effective bulk shear vectors, will support maturing convection through the late afternoon. As storms meander east during the late afternoon/early evening they will move into an axis of better boundary-layer moisture/higher instability that will augment the potential for intense convection. Initially discrete supercells will pose a threat for large (to perhaps very large) hail as this intensification occurs. Steep low-level lapse rates (between 8-9 C/km) will allow for strong outflows that may lead to eventual clustering and upscale growth. Some guidance hints that this clustering could become more organized into a forward propagating MCS late tonight as the nocturnal low-level jet increases, but confidence in this scenario is low given notable spread in hi-res solutions. Regardless, a watch may be needed to address the potential for robust discrete convection. ..Moore/Guyer.. 06/05/2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 Quote URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 310 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 350 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Western and North-Central Kansas Southwest Nebraska * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Multiple corridors of severe storm development including a few supercells will continue to occur, initially along/north of Interstate 70 vicinity from eastern Colorado into northwest/north-central Kansas. Large hail and damaging winds are possible with the storms. Multiple storm clusters may ultimately emerge by evening with an increased damaging wind potential. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles east northeast of Russell KS to 50 miles west southwest of Burlington CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 31020. ...Guyer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 Quote URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 311 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 405 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and South-Central Nebraska * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Multiple corridors of increasing severe thunderstorm development are expected through early evening, initially across west-central/southwest Nebraska. Storms will likely reach south-central Nebraska this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles west of Ainsworth NE to 55 miles west southwest of Kearney NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 310... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 31025. ...Guyer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 5, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 5, 2022 Gonna be crazy tonight. Also excited about MCV storms tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 5, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 5, 2022 Won't be surprised at all if there's at least one strong tornado (whether it's officially rated or not). From what I've seen, S KS/N OK is pretty much only missing low-level speed shear. But something could come along and negate that. We've also seen monster tornadoes happen with pretty weak low-level winds. Some of these soundings I'm seeing is a bit too weak, but wouldn't take much to make it borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 5, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 5, 2022 Possible tornado in E CO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Possible tornado in E CO And 3" hail. Quote BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Pueblo CO 442 PM MDT Sun Jun 5 2022 The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Prowers County in southeastern Colorado... South central Kiowa County in southeastern Colorado... * Until 515 PM MDT. * At 441 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 7 miles east of Queens Reservoir, or 16 miles north of Lamar, moving south at 25 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and hail up to three inches in diameter. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Prowers and south central Kiowa Counties. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3834 10256 3833 10249 3811 10242 3814 10263 TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 011DEG 21KT 3830 10252 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...3.00 IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btbucks Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 At least it's raining where they really need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 5, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 5, 2022 (edited) Using clouds to see directional shear: 101 (See Kansas) Edited June 5, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 5, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 5, 2022 (edited) Something interesting to watch... got a couple dry slots within the warm sector. If it sticks around, those areas would have an enhanced damaging wind threat/lower tornado threat. These slots are the result of intense convective overturning from the morning/early afternoon MCS. So the area to watch is really the outflow boundary left from the MCS. Enhanced moisture and temp gradient. It's certainly possible S KS/N OK recovers in the coming hours due to prolonged moisture advection from Arkansas, and the nocturnal LLJ will also help. Edited June 5, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 6, 2022 Share Posted June 6, 2022 Quote Mesoscale Discussion 1043 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0709 PM CDT Sun Jun 05 2022 Areas affected...central Nebraska into western Kansas and vicinity Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 310...311... Valid 060009Z - 060215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 310, 311 continues. SUMMARY...A threat of damaging winds and hail continues across the region, and may increase over the next few hours across western Kansas. DISCUSSION...Numerous storms across the region have produced several outflow boundaries which may act to temporarily stabilize the air mass. However, pockets of strong instability and an increasing southerly low-level jet tonight should allow for air mass recovery. One prominent outflow is surging westward across north-central KS and south-central NE, and towering CU have increased along this boundary as it moves into the instability axis into western KS. Meanwhile, storms are increasing in coverage from central NE into far northwest KS along a cold front, with multiple large hail cores noted. With time, it is believed that outflow will link and cause storms to grow into an MCS, with south/southeastward motion favored down the instability axis. Pockets of stable outflow may complicate/interrupt a potential MCS, but the overall scenario has potential and will be monitored through tonight. ..Jewell.. 06/06/2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 6, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 6, 2022 Not sure I've seen a 60% chance for a watch in an enhanced risk. Might not be an enhanced risk with the incoming update. Mesoscale Discussion 1044 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 PM CDT Sun Jun 05 2022 Areas affected...Parts of southwest/south-central KS and northern OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 060032Z - 060300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for an increasing severe risk into this evening. A watch could eventually be needed for parts of the area. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite loops show recovering sheltered boundary layer air and backed surface winds over parts of southwest/south-central KS into northern OK ahead of a weak surface low and dryline evident over the TX/OK Panhandles. While this air remains slightly capped amid generally weak large-scale ascent per the DDC 00z sounding and visible satellite imagery, a few deepening cumulus towers are becoming evident along the eastern and southern edge of anvil debris overspreading the area from eastern CO. As lift along the nose of a strengthening low-level jet advances northward this evening in conjunction with a passing shortwave trough, eventual convective initiation will be possible where surface convergence is being maximized ahead of the surface low, though large uncertainty remains. If isolated convection can initiate along this corridor prior to substantial nocturnal boundary-layer cooling, increasingly large, clockwise-turning low-level hodographs (200-400+ m2/s2 effective SRH) amid strong instability would support a discrete supercell or two along the KS/OK border capable of all hazards prior to upscale growth with southward extent. Timing and location of convective initiation and subsequent evolution is still unclear, though current thinking is that a watch could eventually be needed for parts of the area this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 6, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 6, 2022 (edited) 3 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Not sure I've seen a 60% chance for a watch in an enhanced risk. Might not be an enhanced risk with the incoming update. Mesoscale Discussion 1044 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 PM CDT Sun Jun 05 2022 Areas affected...Parts of southwest/south-central KS and northern OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 060032Z - 060300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for an increasing severe risk into this evening. A watch could eventually be needed for parts of the area. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite loops show recovering sheltered boundary layer air and backed surface winds over parts of southwest/south-central KS into northern OK ahead of a weak surface low and dryline evident over the TX/OK Panhandles. While this air remains slightly capped amid generally weak large-scale ascent per the DDC 00z sounding and visible satellite imagery, a few deepening cumulus towers are becoming evident along the eastern and southern edge of anvil debris overspreading the area from eastern CO. As lift along the nose of a strengthening low-level jet advances northward this evening in conjunction with a passing shortwave trough, eventual convective initiation will be possible where surface convergence is being maximized ahead of the surface low, though large uncertainty remains. If isolated convection can initiate along this corridor prior to substantial nocturnal boundary-layer cooling, increasingly large, clockwise-turning low-level hodographs (200-400+ m2/s2 effective SRH) amid strong instability would support a discrete supercell or two along the KS/OK border capable of all hazards prior to upscale growth with southward extent. Timing and location of convective initiation and subsequent evolution is still unclear, though current thinking is that a watch could eventually be needed for parts of the area this evening. I think I might be dumb. I didn't read all of the discussion before posting. Sounds like this isn't for the main part of the event for the area. It's for the chance for a discrete supercell as HRRR has been hinting. 60% chance if more about IF storms develop, rather than the usual scenario where they're not sure if the storms that develop will be strong enough to warrant a watch. Edited June 6, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 6, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 6, 2022 (edited) 0z soundings OUN: Impressive EML, impressive low-level shear, but serious low-level instability issues. Very strong directional shear, seasonably strong deep-layer shear. DDC... weak low-level instability, impressive EML, weak low-level speed shear, strong deep-layer shear, very strong directional shear. Gonna be good for hail and wind unless low-level speed shear can strengthen. Edited June 6, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now