snowlover2 Posted June 10, 2022 Share Posted June 10, 2022 ILN starting to mention this a little now. Quote .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Mean H5 trough begins to push east of the Ohio Valley Sunday morning, but upper level energy will keep chances for showers and storms in the forecast throughout the day. Coverage in storms expected to increase through the afternoon, with SBCAPE values climbing between 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE. Combined with nearly 40 kts of bulk shear, this will allow for some storm organization. Lapse rates are a bit questionable, with some steeper low level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km developing, while mid level lapse rates are more moist adiabatic (~6 C/km) and less favorable for tall updrafts and large hail. A Marginal Risk from the SPC seems very appropriate right now given latest model trends, with better severe chances in the afternoon/evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 10, 2022 Share Posted June 10, 2022 ILN up to 6 confirmed tornadoes after just confirming an EF2 in Hocking County. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 10, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 10, 2022 (edited) Just realized the Tipp City tornado was on the ground for 13.9 miles, the one in Clark county was 17 miles. Obviously, now 2 EF2s. I'd say the slight risk verified. And then some. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_tornadoes_from_May_to_June_2022#June Edited June 10, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 10, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 10, 2022 (edited) Once the instability gets here, don’t forget northwest flow regimes like this are very hard to predict convection. If you’re outside 24 hours, sometimes even 12 hours, the models might be missing subtle forcing such as from a remnant MCS or MCV. If you have sufficient instability while you’re under that moderately strong NW flow, you could easily get a surprise event. I’m talking about anywhere from the Northern Plains to the Great Lakes and OV Edited June 10, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 11, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 11, 2022 (edited) Since we're changing severe weather regimes (quasi-zonal to northwest flow/ring of fire), we're gonna end the thread here and pick up: Edited June 11, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Medina Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 (edited) . Edited June 15, 2022 by Medina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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