Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 9, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 9, 2022 Reports are starting to filter in for Ohio. Not surprisingly, they're reports of significant damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 9, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 9, 2022 Pretty active pattern coming up still in the medium range 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 9, 2022 Share Posted June 9, 2022 3 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Pretty active pattern coming up still in the medium range Going to have to watch that warm front with the heat building 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted June 9, 2022 Share Posted June 9, 2022 Couple pics from the North side of the storm. This is the part that went on to Athens. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 9, 2022 Share Posted June 9, 2022 Top City tornado has been classified as EF2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 9, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 9, 2022 (edited) Edited June 9, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 9, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 9, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 9, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 9, 2022 (edited) ILN hasn't updated in a couple hours but so far we're looking at 5 tornadoes in their CWA so far based on their tweets throughout the day. I'm sure there's gonna be more. Edited June 9, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 9, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 9, 2022 Another video 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 10, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 10, 2022 Splitting supercells in Nebraska 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 10, 2022 Share Posted June 10, 2022 Enhanced added to TX Panhandle/SW OK for wind. Quote Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Jun 09 2022 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL OK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and potentially intense damaging gusts are expected this evening into late tonight across portions of the central and southern Plains. ...Central/southern Great Plains... Convection is increasing in coverage and intensity this evening across parts of western/central Nebraska. Moderate buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear (as noted on the 00Z LBF sounding) will support a threat of very large hail with initially discrete storms. Low-level shear/SRH is also sufficient to support the risk of a tornado or two with any sustained right-moving supercell. Later tonight, some upscale growth is possible, with some potential for an MCS to develop and move south-southeastward along the instability gradient. Should this occur, a corridor of somewhat greater damaging wind threat will be possible from central KS into northern OK. Storms are also increasing this evening along an outflow boundary across the northern TX Panhandle. In the short term, any sustained discrete cells will pose a threat of hail (potentially significant) and locally severe wind gusts, as they move into region where moderate-to-strong buoyancy is in place and effective shear is in the 30-40 kt range. A gradually increasing low-level jet will support upscale growth later this evening, with an increasing threat of severe wind, including the potential for significant (> 65 kt) gusts. A brief tornado or two also cannot be ruled out as convection moves into a region of richer moisture and favorable low-level shear across the eastern TX Panhandle into southwest OK. Confidence in a corridor of concentrated severe wind potential is now sufficient for an Enhanced Risk from the TX Panhandle into southern OK. ..Dean.. 06/10/2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 10, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 10, 2022 (edited) Sounds like 5 tornadoes is it for ILN's CWA. Still have to hear from PBZ and RLX for the rest of the Ohio tornadoes. Edited June 10, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 10, 2022 Share Posted June 10, 2022 17 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Sounds like 5 tornadoes is it for ILN's CWA. Still have to hear from PBZ and RLX for the rest of the Ohio tornadoes. Might be 6 after tomorrow. They might still do a survey in Hocking County. Quote PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 422 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2022 ...DAMAGE BEING ASSESSED FOR POSSIBLE SURVEY NEAR SOUTH BLOOMINGVILLE IN HOCKING COUNTY OHIO... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN WILMINGTON OH IS AWARE OF, AND REVIEWING, DAMAGE FROM SOUTHERN HOCKING COUNTY TO DETERMINE THE NEED FOR A POTENTIAL SURVEY. IF A SURVEY IS TO BE CONDUCTED, IT WOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL FRIDAY, JUNE 10. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL WORK WITH LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT TO MAKE A FINAL DETERMINATION. THIS INFORMATION IS IN RELATION TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ON JUNE 8, 2022. A FINAL ASSESSMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETED AND TRANSMITTED VIA A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT ON FRIDAY. THE STORM SURVEY INFORMATION WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ILN 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 10, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 10, 2022 (edited) So, obviously, this is long-range NAM but this is insane even for Plains standards. Got 90 supercell parameter just northwest of Louisville. 17+ significant tornado parameter. I don't think long-range NAM even produced something like this for the Plains this year. We can't expect anything as crazy as this but we might be looking at another significant OV event. Edited June 10, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 10, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 10, 2022 18z GFS is very different from this 0z NAM run, but clearly Sunday and Monday have some pretty significant potential for the OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted June 10, 2022 Share Posted June 10, 2022 1 hour ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Sounds like 5 tornadoes is it for ILN's CWA. Still have to hear from PBZ and RLX for the rest of the Ohio tornadoes. As far as I've seen, the Pittsburgh NWS hasn't seen any evidence of tornadoes in its forecast area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 10, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 10, 2022 (edited) Gonna be an active Sunday-Tuesday. Keep in mind what 0z NAM was showing... this is 0z GFS Edited June 10, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 10, 2022 Share Posted June 10, 2022 Here is a late night tornado warning with decent velocity difference. (1136PM central time) on a day when not a lot has really popped up on the Plains-- just a cluster of severe reports in western Nebraska, and a separate one near Amarillo Texas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 10, 2022 Share Posted June 10, 2022 radar-detected hail swaths (24hrs) vs the SPC storm reports from 6/7 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 10, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted June 10, 2022 (edited) While the magnitude of NAM's output for Sunday is nonsense, there's plenty of reason for concern. Even GFS is showing low-to-mid 70 dew points below 40-60 knot northwesterly winds at 500mb. I'm expecting a day 3 slight risk for the area... only possible thing that could hold that back is confidence in storms developing. Edited June 10, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 10, 2022 Share Posted June 10, 2022 1 hour ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: While the magnitude of NAM's output for Sunday is nonsense, there's plenty of reason for concern. Even GFS is showing low-to-mid 70 dew points below 40-60 knot northwesterly winds at 500mb. I'm expecting a day 3 slight risk for the area... only possible thing that could hold that back is confidence in storms developing. Yeah Sunday is looking very volatile. This kind of setup can be very explosive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 10, 2022 Share Posted June 10, 2022 MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY A CLUSTER/MCS MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOME PORTION OF THE MIDWEST. A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY ALONG/SOUTH OF A FRONT. GIVEN THAT LARGE-SCALE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD, IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP/PERSIST ACROSS THESE REGIONS THROUGH THE DAY. IF CONVECTION CAN FORM, THEN IT WOULD HAVE ACCESS TO STRONG TO POTENTIALLY EXTREME INSTABILITY, ALONG WITH MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OWING TO ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. BOTH SEVERE/DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDING GREATER SEVERE PROBABILITIES IS THE PLACEMENT/EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY MORNING AND OVERALL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES THAT AN MCS WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY AS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, THEN GREATER SEVERE PROBABILITIES WOULD BE NEEDED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 10, 2022 Share Posted June 10, 2022 From Indy Saturday into Saturday Night. Northwesterly flow aloft continues into Saturday. At the same time, surface flow will have switched to a more southerly direction behind Friday`s system. A diffuse warm front will begin slowly working its way northward across the state. Keeping an eye out for MCSs or their remnants dropping down from the northwest Saturday into Sunday...decent moisture return with a modest nocturnal LLJ could sustain any convective system that forms upstream. Some models are already hinting at this possibility, but vary significantly with intensity and timing. Will include a chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday into Sunday to cover the range of possibilities. Temperatures are expected to be warmer than Friday, but still slightly below average for this time of the year. && .Long Term...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Jun 10 2022 ...Heat Wave Coming to the Ohio Valley for Next Week... The well advertised transition from the northwest flow regime to a more amplified pattern with a strong ridge centered over the Ohio Valley will lead to the first taste of significant summer heat for the year for the first half of next week. The persistent double barreled upper low that has been parked over eastern Canada will gradually lift out into the Canadian Maritimes by early next week which will enable upper level heights to rise in response across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by Tuesday and Wednesday. Prior to the expansion of the ridge...stronger mid level flow will remain focused from the northern Plains into the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians around the base of the upper low to our northeast. This creates some uncertainty in the forecast for the first part of the extended from Saturday night into Monday as any subtle wave tracking within the enhanced flow aloft would be positioned to potentially create some convective mischief...perhaps as smaller convective clusters drifting into the region. Model guidance is all over the place with respect to this thinking and really offers nothing concrete which is a commonality in this sort of pattern. Will carry periodic isolated pops into Monday but attempting to provide any detail beyond that is challenging at this point. The big takeaway here is that any convective threat throughout the extended is likely to be elevated during this stretch over the weekend and into Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 10, 2022 Share Posted June 10, 2022 ILN not even mentioning much yet for Sunday/Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hassaywx1223 Posted June 10, 2022 Share Posted June 10, 2022 Cleveland isn’t mentioning nothing Sunday yet but boy that looks real to me prime time of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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