snowlover2 Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 1 hour ago, Bman10 said: Watch issued 80/50 probs ☹️ All the probs are pretty good and this really isn't even in the moderate area yet. Quote Tornadoes Probability of 2 or more tornadoes High (80%) Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes Mod (50%) Wind Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (70%) Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots Mod (60%) Hail Probability of 10 or more severe hail events High (70%) Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches Mod (60%) Combined Severe Hail/Wind Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 Tornado warning east of Mitchell SD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 Sioux Falls has had a rough few weeks. Not even in the moderate, but risk is increasing there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 (edited) HRRR seems to be handling current convection pretty well, let's see if it's right about the discrete supercells a couple hours from now. Current Radar HRRR Full Loop Edited May 30, 2022 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 (edited) Could be some very early wave patterns taking shape or just two conveniently placed mesocyclones, either way I think things will get LEWP-y tonight. Edited May 30, 2022 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 Tornado warning I'm guessing for this, nothing right yet but won't take much. Probably what most of the tornado warnings will look like tonight, mostly north-south due to meridional flow, and long polygons because of how fast these storms will be moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 (edited) Mean supercell taking shape off the dry line, hopefully development to it's south disrupts it or ill bet this will give us our first shot of significant weather. Edited May 30, 2022 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 Here we go for the moderate area. Quote Mesoscale Discussion 0980 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022 Areas affected...extreme eastern SD into southern/central MN Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 301906Z - 302030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The threat for strong tornadoes and widespread intense gusts is increasing across extreme eastern South Dakota into southern/central MN. A tornado watch will be needed in the next hour. DISCUSSION...A surface warm front over southern MN will continue to lift northward through the afternoon. Dewpoints will increase into the mid/upper 60s as this occurs, resulting in rapid destabilization with northward extent over the next few hours. Recent visible satellite imagery shows increasing/vertically developing cumulus across portions of southern MN to the south of the warm front. A recent RAOB near Tyler, MN indicated weakening surface-based and MLCIN with very steep midlevel lapse rates in place. Effective shear magnitudes greater than 50 kt will support organized supercells, while strong forcing may tend to favor bowing segments, and a mixed convective mode is possible. Enlarged low-level hodographs evident in regional RAOBs/VWPs and forecast soundings show 30-40 kt 0-1 km shear amid enhanced low-level vorticity. This will support intense rotation with any discrete or line-embedded supercells, and a couple of significant tornadoes will be possible into early evening. Hi-res operational CAMs guidance and the experiment Warn-on-Forecast ensemble has been persistent in developing at least a couple of discrete supercells ahead of linear convection. While convective evolution/storm mode remains somewhat unclear, the overall parameter space will support storms capable of producing strong tornadoes and widespread intense (greater than 75 mph) outflow winds. A higher-end tornado watch will likely be needed within the hour. ..Leitman/Thompson.. 05/30/2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 Last line of the MD mentions it being a higher end tornado watch. Question is will they go PDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 Tornado warning north of Sioux Falls SD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 Sioux Falls live coverage https://www.keloland.com/watch-live/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bman10 Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 “Observed” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 Confirmed near Sinai. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 234 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022 SDC011-301945- /O.CON.KFSD.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-220530T1945Z/ Brookings SD- 234 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CDT FOR WESTERN BROOKINGS COUNTY... At 233 PM CDT, tornado producing storms were located along a line extending from Estelline to near Bruce, moving northeast at 55 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado near Sinai at 219 pm. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. These tornadic storms will remain over mainly rural areas of western Brookings County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 PDS tornado watch just issued. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 Quote URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 293 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 230 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest and central Minnesota Northeast South Dakota * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until 1000 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 80 mph likely Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Clusters of severe storms, with embedded supercell structures, will continue to spread north-northeastward from eastern South Dakota into western and central Minnesota through the afternoon. Additional discrete supercell development remains possible farther to the east in southwest Minnesota, and any supercells that form in the warm sector will have the potential to produce a few long-tracked, intense tornadoes. Otherwise, tornadoes, isolated very large hail and damaging gusts of 70-80 mph can be expected with embedded supercells and bowing segments through this evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north northwest of Brainerd MN to 30 miles southwest of Redwood Falls MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 292... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 21050. ...Thompson 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 All probs are 80% or higher. Quote Tornadoes Probability of 2 or more tornadoes High (90%) Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes High (80%) Wind Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (90%) Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots High (80%) Hail Probability of 10 or more severe hail events High (80%) Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches High (80%) Combined Severe Hail/Wind Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 4 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: All probs are 80% or higher. Here we go..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 Sheesh, that's no joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 the dynamics and kinematics today together are incredible.. low-level lapse rates now forecast to be just as robust as mid-level lapse rates now too, according to the HRRR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: the dynamics and kinematics today together are incredible.. low-level lapse rates now forecast to be just as robust as mid-level lapse rates now too, according to the HRRR. This could get ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 (edited) Something funky coming up to Milbank. Edited May 30, 2022 by SoDakFarmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 (edited) 9 minutes ago, SoDakFarmer said: Something funky coming up to Milbank. Yeah they're warning that whole mess, maybe a bookend vortex. Worried about a dominant supercell trying to establish east of Sioux Falls. EDIT: Confirmed tornado now Edited May 30, 2022 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 Confirmed tornado east of Sioux Falls. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 321 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022 MNC133-SDC099-302045- /O.CON.KFSD.TO.W.0027.000000T0000Z-220530T2045Z/ Rock MN-Minnehaha SD- 321 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN ROCK AND EAST CENTRAL MINNEHAHA COUNTIES... At 320 PM CDT, tornado producing storms were located along a line extending from Sherman to near Beaver Creek, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Public confirmed tornado east of Sherman at 314 pm CDT. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Hardwick, and Blue Mounds State Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 This would be on the confirmed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 Storms looking very impressive on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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