May 29th - June 3rd?, 2022 | Severe Weather

[ClicheVortex2014]

12 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

I'm pretty concerned about tomorrow's potential, extremely dangerous day ahead. Storm motion will probably be extremely fast so hopefully everyone up there is ready. I won't be able to track this one much, as I'm pretty busy all day tomorrow with work and some other stuff. 

Also I don't think a 30 hatched tornado area is out of the question here but it's probably not gonna happen, either way this should be the biggest tornado day since 5/4 and has a good chance to be the biggest of the month and maybe even year (so far) IMO...

0z HRRR is looking pretty interesting for Tuesday at the end of the run, nice line from C KS to the TX panhandle. Wouldn't be surprised to see an upgrade for that area at some point. 

Yeah these next few days are gonna be wild

 

10 minutes ago, Bman10 said:

 FWIW

Tomorrow 100% depends on storm mode/window for discrete supercells. If there's a multi-hour window for discrete supercells, yeah, a high risk is possible. If not, then we're gonna stay at moderate risk. 

Edited May 30, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Bman10]

2 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

 

Tomorrow 100% depends on storm mode/window for discrete supercells. If there's a multi-hour window for discrete supercells, yeah, a high risk is possible. If not, then we're gonna stay at moderate risk. 

Morning convection will make or break the potential. Can’t wait to see what plays out. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

4 minutes ago, Bman10 said:

Morning convection will make or break the potential. Can’t wait to see what plays out. 

That's true, too... but IMO the ceiling of tomorrow will be determined by whether storm mode is discrete/semi-discetete/linear

Will be a very interesting day regardless because the only dispute of tomorrow is the tornado potential. Wind/hail threat is gonna happen.

Edited May 30, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[snowlover2]

Tornado warned cell SW of Creighton NE.

[ClicheVortex2014]

New day 1 extended northeast.

  
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1244 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2022  
  
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z  
  
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF  
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN  
MINNESOTA...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. LARGE TO GIANT HAIL, 60-80 MPH  
GUSTS, AND TORNADOES ARE PROBABLE, INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR A  
COUPLE OF INTENSE LONG-TRACK TORNADOES.  
  
...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES LIKELY TODAY ACROSS PARTS  
OF NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA, FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN  
AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA...  
   
..NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  
  
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW, AND AN ASSOCIATED POWERFUL 90 TO 100 KNOT  
MID-LEVEL JET, WILL EJECT QUICKLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW WILL MOVE  
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW  
TRACK, A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE, WITH MLCAPE  
FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE BY LATE  
MORNING. AS THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING, SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO  
INITIATE IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE  
IN COVERAGE, MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY  
EARLY AFTERNOON. A COMPLEX OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY  
ORGANIZE, MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SOUTH  
DAKOTA, FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN  
MINNESOTA. SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES APPEAR LIKELY WITH THIS  
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  
  
SEVERAL FACTORS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS  
TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY. THE FIRST IS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED,  
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS AND THE TROUGH TAKES ON A  
NEGATIVE TILT. THE SECOND IS THAT THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL  
JET WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AND FOCUSED BAND OF LARGE-SCALE  
ASCENT. THE MID-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE BASE OF THE  
TROUGH AT NEARLY 50 KNOTS, WHICH WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR AN  
OUTBREAK. THE THIRD FACTOR IS THAT THE MID-LEVEL AND LOW-LEVEL JETS  
WILL BECOME COUPLED. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN LIFT AND CREATE STRONG  
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. INTENSE  
SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN A LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER BY  
AFTERNOON.   
  
AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET CONSOLIDATES IN WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO THE  
EAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW, SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME  
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. TORNADOES WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM  
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA.  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR, TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL  
JET, HAVE 0-3 KM STORM-RELATIVE HELICITIES IN THE 350 TO 450 M2/S2  
RANGE. THIS, ALONG WITH CURVED HODOGRAPHS, WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A  
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES. ONE OR TWO LONG-TRACK  
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. BOTH STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND  
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 7.5 TO 8.0 C/KM RANGE, WILL BE  
FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS WILL PRODUCE  
HAILSTONES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. THE CLUSTER OF STORMS  
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ORGANIZE INTO A BOWING LINE SEGMENT BY LATE  
AFTERNOON, MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA,  
WHERE A SWATH OF WIND GUSTS IN THE 60 TO 70 KNOT RANGE APPEARS  
LIKELY.  
   
..CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY  
  
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND  
MID MISSOURI VALLEY TODAY, IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL  
SYSTEM. AT THE SURFACE, A DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN DURING THE DAY FROM  
FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. TO THE EAST OF  
THE DRYLINE, A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BY  
AFTERNOON, WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F. THIS  
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST  
TO DEVELOP ALONG OR NEAR THE INSTABILITY AXIS BY LATE AFTERNOON,  
WITH A RAPID EXPANSION OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TAKING PLACE IN THE  
EARLY TO MID EVENING.   
  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DURING THE EARLY EVENING FROM WICHITA, KANSAS  
NORTHWARD TO JUST EAST OF OMAHA HAVE MLCAPE IN THE 2500 TO 3000 J/KG  
RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH 60 TO 80 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE  
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN  
2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE  
SUPERCELLS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DISCRETE FOR A FEW HOURS  
THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-3 KM STORM-RELATIVE HELICITIES IN  
THE 200 TO 250 M2/S2 RANGE, WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT. AS A LINE  
EMERGES DURING THE EVENING, A WIND-DAMAGE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE  
MAINTAINED WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS OR LINE SEGMENTS. THE SEVERE  
THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT, AS THE LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE  
STORMS MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS IOWA, NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND  
EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS.  

 

Edited May 30, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Neoncyclone]

A pretty big down-trend in parameter space took place overnight with the HRRR, tough call this morning, probably stays moderate

[Guest]

Bust bust bust bust………

 

I’m not in the moderate, but close enough.

[Neoncyclone]

24 minutes ago, SoDakFarmer said:

Bust bust bust bust………

 

I’m not in the moderate, but close enough.

I wouldn't say that, parameter space down-trended, but the parameters are still there, just in a smaller region. and if a couple discrete supercells establish today it'll be a big deal, shear is crazy today.

Edited May 30, 2022 by Neoncyclone

[Neoncyclone]

27 minutes ago, SoDakFarmer said:

Bust bust bust bust………

 

I’m not in the moderate, but close enough.

Also as you sent this the 11z comes in with just as explosive as a run as last night LOL. from 07z-10z there was a down-trend, back at a big event on the 11z. Gonna be one of those days today, complex situation for the spc. new Day 1 coming soon.

Edited May 30, 2022 by Neoncyclone

[Neoncyclone]

Moderate maintained on the first day 1

Quote

SPC AC 301250 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley, with more scattered to isolated activity southward into the central Plains today into tonight. Large to giant hail, 60-80 mph gusts, and tornadoes are probable, including the possibility for a couple strong/long-tracked tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A large field of mid/upper-level cyclonic flow covers most of the western/central CONUS, anchored by a broad, complex cyclone covering much of the northern/central Rockies and Intermountain region. Primary vorticity maxima are evident in moisture-channel imagery over ID and central/eastern CO. The latter will eject northeastward today, become a compact, closed cyclone in its own right, and deepen considerably, with the 500-mb low reaching east-central SD by 00Z. Meanwhile the western vorticity lobe will remain weaker and meander around southern ID/northern NV through the period. The 11Z surface analysis showed a low over extreme southeastern ND, with cold front across eastern SD, south-central NE, northwestern KS, and central CO. Another low was noted along the dryline between GCK-HYS. The southern low will move northward, merge onto the front, and intensify through the day as its mid/upper counterpart approaches, until the lows become stacked over east-central SD around 00Z. By then the surface low should be occluded, with a triple point over southwestern MN and cold front arching across western IA, southeastern NE and northern/western KS. An outflow boundary from prior MCS activity was drawn across southwestern MN, northwestern IA and northeastern NE. This boundary may maintain its identity for a few more hours before retreating northward and becoming more ill-defined amidst intense surface-850-mb warm advection and moisture transport. Both ongoing and future/intervening convective processes cast uncertainty over specific timing/location of these features across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest into the afternoon. A dryline -- drawn initially across western KS, the TX Panhandle and southward into the Big Bend region -- will shift eastward to central KS, western OK and west-central TX this afternoon, before being overtaken from north-south by the cold front over KS tonight. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms, offering tornadoes (some potentially strong/EF2+), severe wind and occasional large/damaging hail, will be possible into this evening. The greatest coverage should be in and near the "moderate" and "enhanced" categorical areas, where low-level convergence and convective coverage each should be greatest. The main convective regime should develop as early as midday near the retreating outflow boundary across northern NE, southeastern SD and southwestern MN, growing upscale and sweeping north-northeastward through the remainder of the outlook area this afternoon and early evening. With the passage of such an intense prior-overnight/morning MCS to the south and east of the axis of the outlook area, and a well-defined outflow boundary currently entirely displaced from the greater severe probabilities, normally there would be great concern/uncertainty about airmass recovery. To some extent there is -- especially with northern extent across ND/MN. This is not a "normal" scenario, however, with higher-end kinematic/mass response to the approaching cyclone fostering very intense, deep-tropospheric meridional flow (the direction needed for favorable thermodynamic recovery) and related strong surface-850-mb warm advection. The remains of the outflow boundary accordingly should disperse through the day, and the stable air to its north will modify and advect northward out of at least some, perhaps most, of the outlook area. The probabilities supporting "enhanced" and "moderate" risks have been adjusted slightly eastward and compacted on the west side, to reflect the likely tight gradient between substantial and limited severe potential. Still, the axis of greatest probabilities remains somewhat uncertain and fluid, and may need further adjustment through the day as mesoscale trends warrant. Despite the component of mean-wind and deep-shear vectors off the axis of strongest low-level forcing, the intense deep-layer lift may compel a relatively quick transition from initial supercellular characteristics to mixed modes, then quasi-linear with embedded LEWPs/bows/mesocirculations. Forecast soundings suggest 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE can develop across the corridor from northeastern NE to central MN before the main round of convection, along with 55-70-kt effective-shear magnitudes, and effective SRH in the 150-300 J/kg range, with long, somewhat curved hodographs. ...Western IA to eastern/southern KS... Widely scattered to isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon into evening in a northeast/southwest corridor related to the front and dryline. Though coverage may be limited by stronger EML-related capping, and weaker deep-layer forcing that farther north, the parameter space in the adjacent warm sector will be favorable for supercells. The stronger MLCINH also may favor longer-lasting, relatively discrete modes, further supporting the somewhat conditional tornado and significant-hail threats. Enough guidance indicates development of at least a few sustained cells in this regime that unconditional probabilities have been increased. This area will reside near the axis of the strongest 300-700-mb flow this afternoon and evening, enabling 55-65-kt effective-shear magnitudes, while low-level shear/hodographs enlarge with the LLJ intensification in the 00-03Z time frame. Surface dew points generally in the 60s F and steep low/middle-level lapse rates will support a plume of 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE parallel to and ahead of the front and dryline. ..Edwards/Mosier.. 05/30/2022

 

[Guest]

15 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said:

I wouldn't say that, parameter space down-trended, but the parameters are still there, just in a smaller region. and if a couple discrete supercells establish today it'll be a big deal, shear is crazy today.

I should have specified…..I’m rooting for a bust!

[Guest]

Is there a place I can find the outlook trends/shifts?  I see it shifted a bit again, but running into a brick wall trying to find something that shows the last few.

Im going to feel really dumb when somebody points out the simple answer lol.

[Neoncyclone]

6 minutes ago, SoDakFarmer said:

Is there a place I can find the outlook trends/shifts?  I see it shifted a bit again, but running into a brick wall trying to find something that shows the last few.

Im going to feel really dumb when somebody points out the simple answer lol.

There's actually a model trend option on Pivotal, ill show you, here's the HRRR at peak parameter space. This shows one frame from the last however many runs you decide. Here's 01z-12z HRRR runs you can see the lull in 07-10z were parameter space down-trended. We can also see it looks like the tornado threat may be shifting further south.

Another trend gif, this is for 22z tonight thought.   01z-12z

 

Edited May 30, 2022 by Neoncyclone

[Neoncyclone]

9 minutes ago, SoDakFarmer said:

Is there a place I can find the outlook trends/shifts?  I see it shifted a bit again, but running into a brick wall trying to find something that shows the last few.

Im going to feel really dumb when somebody points out the simple answer lol.

If you meant SPC outlooks i'm not sure how to overlay an old outlook over a new one to see shifts unfortunately

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said:

If you meant SPC outlooks i'm not sure how to overlay an old outlook over a new one to see shifts unfortunately

Yeah, that’s what I was looking for.  I can’t seem to find anything like that, if it even exists.

[Cincysnow]

38 minutes ago, SoDakFarmer said:

Yeah, that’s what I was looking for.  I can’t seem to find anything like that, if it even exists.

See if this works: 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/archive/

[ClicheVortex2014]

The only way today busts is if destructive storm interference is rampant and I'd say there's a pretty decent chance that happens. I always have some reservations when I see something like this. A little messy looking. 

That said, it'll still be a very busy day as long as cells aren't persistently destructive... i.e., if a squall can develop, there's gonna be a huge damaging wind threat as well as embedded tornadic supercells/mesovortices. Shear today is gonna be March-like, and instability should get an honorable mention... steep lapse rates throughout most of the troposphere. Possibly no inversions.

Edited May 30, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[snowlover2]

Maybe an early start.

Quote

  NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0927 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

   Areas affected...portions of northern NE into southern SD

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 301427Z - 301600Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Initial convection this morning will pose a threat for
   hail. While a watch may not be needed in the next 1-2 hours, a quick
   transition toward increasing severe potential is expected by midday
   into early afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Occasionally intense convection is developing/ongoing
   across north-central NE this morning within the left exit region of
   the ejecting midlevel trough  over the central High Plains. This
   activity is elevated at this time and may pose a threat for hail.
   With time, a warm front extending eastward from a low over
   east-central NE will lift northward across northeast NE into
   southeast SD, allowing mid 60s surface dewpoints to spread
   northward. Elevated convection across southeast SD into western IA
   may continue in this low-level warm advection regime, with a threat
   for hail. As heating continues through the morning, increasing
   destabilization will occur and capping will erode as stronger
   large-scale ascent shifts east by early to mid afternoon. Any
   initially elevated convection may then become surface based with
   time and transition from merely a hail concern to also include a
   damaging gust and tornado concern. 

   The timing of the evolution of threat transitioning from a more
   isolated/elevated thunderstorm threat to a surfaced-based
   all-hazards concern remains somewhat unclear. A watch may not be
   needed in the next 1-2 hours, but could quickly become necessary
   around midday.

   ..Leitman/Thompson.. 05/30/2022

 

 

[Guest]

Still full cloud cover 20 miles straight south of Aberdeen.  No hint of sun even.

[Neoncyclone]

14z HRRR... discrete/semi-discrete convection

 

 

[snowlover2]

Moderate shifted east some.

Quote

  
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1125 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2022  
  
VALID 301630Z - 311200Z  
  
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS  
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM EASTERN SD INTO MN...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH MORE SCATTERED TO  
ISOLATED ACTIVITY SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY INTO  
TONIGHT. LARGE TO GIANT HAIL, 60-80 MPH GUSTS, AND A FEW  
LONG-TRACKED, INTENSE TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.  
  
...A SUBSTANTIAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH ALL HAZARDS IS  
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO  
MINNESOTA...  
   
..EASTERN SD INTO MN THOUGH LATE EVENING  
  
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 70-90 KT MIDLEVEL JET  
WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FROM WESTERN KS/NE TOWARD  
THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY TONIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED 992 MB SURFACE LOW IN  
CENTRAL NE AS OF LATE MORNING WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY  
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN SD TO NEAR THE ND/MN BORDER BY  
EARLY TONIGHT.  SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS, SOME WITH LARGE HAIL,  
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY IN THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE TO  
THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN SD INTO SOUTHWESTERN MN.   
HOWEVER, THE WARM SECTOR WITH MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS NOW ACROSS  
EASTERN NE/WESTERN IA WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY, WITH  
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR AND  
JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE AND EJECTING MIDLEVEL TROUGH BY  
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON.  
  
IT APPEARS THE CONVECTION WILL BEGIN AS CLUSTERS BY MIDDAY ACROSS  
EAST/SOUTHEAST SD, AND EXPAND QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO  
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.  ALL HAZARDS CAN BE  
EXPECTED WITH THE SURFACE-BASED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON, IN AN  
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR FAST-MOVING SUPERCELLS.  HOWEVER, THERE  
ARE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE/BOWING SEGMENTS GIVEN  
POTENTIAL STORM INTERACTIONS AND STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT.   
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG (EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN  
EXCESS OF 65 KT), WITH LONG HODOGRAPHS AND LOW-LEVEL, CLOCKWISE  
CURVATURE (EFFECTIVE SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2).  THESE WIND PROFILES, IN  
COMBINATION WITH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 8 C/KM AND MLCAPE  
OF 2000-3000 J/KG, WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR A FEW LONG-TRACKED,  
INTENSE TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WITH ANY SEMI-DISCRETE  
SUPERCELLS.  AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME  
POTENTIAL FOR STORM INTERACTIONS AND UPSCALE GROWTH INTO LINE  
SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW GUSTS UP TO 80  
MPH, GIVEN THE VERY STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WIND PROFILES.   
    
..IA/NE TO KS/NORTHERN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT  
  
THE LARGER HEIGHT FALLS AND STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SPREAD  
NORTHWARD TOWARD EASTERN SD/MN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT  
THE WARMEST PORTION OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL BE EAST OF THE  
DRYLINE BY LATE AFTERNOON.  FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED IN  
THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION SOUTHWARD  
ALONG THE DRYLINE, AND ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR BY LATE  
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL NOT BE IDEAL, GIVEN  
FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES NEAR 500 MB ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE  
JET.  STILL, THE STORM ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONALLY FAVORS SUPERCELLS  
WITH ALL HAZARDS, GIVEN SUSTAINED STORM DEVELOPMENT.  OTHERWISE,  
DESPITE HEIGHT RISES OVERNIGHT, THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION WITH  
OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST (ESPECIALLY TOWARD  
NORTHEAST KS) AS THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE REMNANT DRYLINE, AND  
WITH WARM ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A 50+ KT LOW-LEVEL JET.    
   
..FL/SOUTH GA THIS AFTERNOON  
  
SCATTERED SEA BREEZE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, SKEWED TO  
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA GIVEN LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.   
STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND MODERATE BUOYANCY COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED  
WIND DAMAGE WITH DOWNBURSTS, AS WELL AS SOME HAIL.  
  
..THOMPSON/BENTLEY.. 05/30/2022 

 

 

[Cincysnow]

Watch coming soon

Spoiler

Mesoscale Discussion 0975 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022 Areas affected...portions of northeast NE...southeast SD...far southwest MN into far northwest IA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 301628Z - 301800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A tornado watch will be needed soon across parts of northeast NE into southeast SD and adjacent portions of far southwest MN/northwest IA. DISCUSSION...The effects of large-scale ascent now shifting east across NE is apparent as convection is rapidly increasing near the triple point into vicinity of the northeast NE/southeast SD border. Some of this activity is still likely elevated, especially across SD. However, a surface warm front will continue to lift northward the next few hours, allowing for additional destabilization and erosion of capping. Storms may initially pose mainly a hail threat, but a quick transition toward damaging gust and tornado potential is expected over the next few hours with east/northeast extent. Strong forcing amid supercell wind profiles will likely result in mixed storm mode, with bowing line segments and semi-discrete supercells likely. The KFSD VWP, which is located very near the surface warm front, already shows an enlarged, clockwise curved low-level hodograph with intense low-level shear/SRH present. This will support low-level rotation within semi-discrete convection and along any bowing/line segments. Tornadoes and damaging gusts will be possible and a watch is likely soon. ..Leitman/Thompson.. 05/30/2022

 

[Cincysnow]

Nadocast

 

[Bman10]

Watch issued 

80/50 probs ☹️

Edited May 30, 2022 by Bman10

[StormfanaticInd]

Pretty big shift south on the new day two outlook