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May 29th - June 3rd?, 2022 | Severe Weather


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  • Meteorologist
3 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Here we go

image.thumb.png.f078128afc1019f0c3b17397e53dc9bd.png

Hodograph appears to strongly favor splitting supercells at least for now. If the LLJ increases then it may change to favoring right-movers 

image.thumb.png.fb5ec722a1078f035724982c7940952e.png

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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I'd hate to be the SPC forecaster for the first day 1 outlook. Hopefully the other CAMs will provide more insight because if they all show something like this, it's a very tough call.

18z and 0z HRRR have shown potential for a discrete warm sector supercell. Might only last 1-3 hours, but would likely have huge potential.

floop-hrrr-2022053000.refcmp.us_nc.gif

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

I'd hate to be the SPC forecaster for the first day 1 outlook. Hopefully the other CAMs will provide more insight because if they all show something like this, it's a very tough call.

floop-hrrr-2022053000.refcmp.us_nc.gif

A sounding out ahead of the squall

874414768_Screenshot2022-05-29203409.thumb.png.30ea07aa84cd686bf2d6c0b1f1eb577c.png

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14 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said:

Organizing relatively fast

 

 

Screenshot_20220529-202810_RadarScope.jpg

Yeah that’s some insane development. I guess the splitting supercell phase is over.

716DA06E-9993-431B-8037-6B8F0519FB41.thumb.gif.530f84c5727f308554d3a28340b2b9bb.gif

7 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said:

A sounding out ahead of the squall

874414768_Screenshot2022-05-29203409.thumb.png.30ea07aa84cd686bf2d6c0b1f1eb577c.png

Regardless of storm mode, that kind of shear is bound to produce tornadoes no matter what. Hopefully that environment doesn’t meet up with a supercell.

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That tornado warned cell in NE also has possible softball sized hail.

Quote
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
919 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

NEC071-089-115-300300-
/O.CON.KLBF.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220530T0300Z/
Loup NE-Garfield NE-Holt NE-
919 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL LOUP...NORTHERN GARFIELD AND SOUTHWESTERN HOLT COUNTIES...

At 918 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 9 miles north of Calamus Reservoir State Recreation Area,
or 16 miles north of Burwell, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and softball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Carson Lake and Gables.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4189 9925 4202 9931 4219 9900 4192 9883
TIME...MOT...LOC 0218Z 239DEG 20KT 4200 9924

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...4.00 IN

 

 

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Holy shit now grapefruit sized hail!!!

Quote
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
929 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

NEC071-089-300300-
/O.CON.KLBF.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220530T0300Z/
Garfield NE-Holt NE-
929 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN
GARFIELD AND SOUTHWESTERN HOLT COUNTIES...

At 929 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 13 miles northeast of Calamus Reservoir State Recreation
Area, or 16 miles north of Burwell, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and grapefruit size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Carson Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4193 9917 4204 9923 4207 9922 4208 9921
      4219 9900 4194 9884
TIME...MOT...LOC 0229Z 247DEG 26KT 4202 9911

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...4.50 IN

 

 

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New tornado warning and back down to softball sized hail.

Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service North Platte NE
941 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

The National Weather Service in North Platte has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northeastern Garfield County in north central Nebraska...
  South central Holt County in north central Nebraska...
  Northwestern Wheeler County in north central Nebraska...

* Until 1030 PM CDT.

* At 940 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located 12 miles south of Amelia, or 19 miles north of Burwell,
  moving east at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and softball size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Chambers around 1015 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Buffalo Flats, Goose Lake State Wildlife Management Area, Sunfish
Lake, Cumminsville and Four Corners.

#

#

This includes Highway 281 between mile markers 147 and 169.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4196 9906 4214 9910 4227 9861 4196 9850
TIME...MOT...LOC 0240Z 247DEG 26KT 4204 9900

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...4.00 IN

 

 

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Always wild to me how places like the Upper Midwest and Southern Canada manages to pull off tornadic supercells every year when they always pull off temps in the negative 20s and 30s or less.

This is in eastern North Dakota

image.thumb.png.4c3430cb82a8c11bceba130f1c8e319c.png

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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47 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

01z HRRR is struggling. It doesn't see the current central NE supercell until 2 hours from now. Which not only exists but is tornado warned now, by the way.

image.thumb.png.c0423468538ed1d6a75d5192cddc7f77.png

image.thumb.png.b20f4290380637a9006a2a29e8113a3c.png

This supercell produced the extreme 4.25" hail a while ago (0214z). Here is the cross section of ZDR (differential reflectivity) which indicates a strong updraft. Also shown is the hail algorithm, which underestimated the hail (a first?)

2022_05_30_0214z_KLNX_supercell_cross_sect.jpg

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I'm pretty concerned about tomorrow's potential, extremely dangerous day ahead. Storm motion will probably be extremely fast so hopefully everyone up there is ready. I won't be able to track this one much, as I'm pretty busy all day tomorrow with work and some other stuff. 

Also I don't think a 30 hatched tornado area is out of the question here but it's probably not gonna happen, either way this should be the biggest tornado day since 5/4 and has a good chance to be the biggest of the month and maybe even year (so far) IMO...

0z HRRR is looking pretty interesting for Tuesday at the end of the run, nice line from C KS to the TX panhandle. Wouldn't be surprised to see an upgrade for that area at some point. 

Yeah these next few days are gonna be wild

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