Neoncyclone Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 looks like HRRR will come in clutch for 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 (edited) And the 0z hrrr is a whole lot of nothing in the tornado watch area until like 06z Edited May 30, 2022 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 (edited) Cells going up near Millburn Edited May 30, 2022 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 30, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 30, 2022 Here we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 30, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 30, 2022 (edited) 3 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Here we go Hodograph appears to strongly favor splitting supercells at least for now. If the LLJ increases then it may change to favoring right-movers Edited May 30, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 Organizing relatively fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 30, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 30, 2022 (edited) I'd hate to be the SPC forecaster for the first day 1 outlook. Hopefully the other CAMs will provide more insight because if they all show something like this, it's a very tough call. 18z and 0z HRRR have shown potential for a discrete warm sector supercell. Might only last 1-3 hours, but would likely have huge potential. Edited May 30, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: I'd hate to be the SPC forecaster for the first day 1 outlook. Hopefully the other CAMs will provide more insight because if they all show something like this, it's a very tough call. A sounding out ahead of the squall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 30, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 30, 2022 14 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: Organizing relatively fast Yeah that’s some insane development. I guess the splitting supercell phase is over. 7 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: A sounding out ahead of the squall Regardless of storm mode, that kind of shear is bound to produce tornadoes no matter what. Hopefully that environment doesn’t meet up with a supercell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 30, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 30, 2022 (edited) 01z HRRR is struggling. It doesn't see the current central NE supercell until 2 hours from now. Which not only exists but is tornado warned now, by the way. Edited May 30, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 That tornado warned cell in NE also has possible softball sized hail. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service North Platte NE 919 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022 NEC071-089-115-300300- /O.CON.KLBF.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220530T0300Z/ Loup NE-Garfield NE-Holt NE- 919 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR EAST CENTRAL LOUP...NORTHERN GARFIELD AND SOUTHWESTERN HOLT COUNTIES... At 918 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 9 miles north of Calamus Reservoir State Recreation Area, or 16 miles north of Burwell, moving northeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and softball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Carson Lake and Gables. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 4189 9925 4202 9931 4219 9900 4192 9883 TIME...MOT...LOC 0218Z 239DEG 20KT 4200 9924 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...4.00 IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 Mean looking right mover, might be losing some steam though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 Holy shit now grapefruit sized hail!!! Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service North Platte NE 929 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022 NEC071-089-300300- /O.CON.KLBF.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220530T0300Z/ Garfield NE-Holt NE- 929 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN GARFIELD AND SOUTHWESTERN HOLT COUNTIES... At 929 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 13 miles northeast of Calamus Reservoir State Recreation Area, or 16 miles north of Burwell, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and grapefruit size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Carson Lake. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 4193 9917 4204 9923 4207 9922 4208 9921 4219 9900 4194 9884 TIME...MOT...LOC 0229Z 247DEG 26KT 4202 9911 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...4.50 IN 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 Just now, snowlover2 said: Holy shit now grapefruit sized hail!!! Nevermind guess it's not losing steam, wow, that's some big hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bman10 Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 4 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Holy shit now grapefruit sized hail!!! Wow. You don’t see that every day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 30, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 30, 2022 I guess 12z HRRR was on to something afterall. Nasty supercell. Hopefully it's not an indication of what to expect tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bman10 Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 They weren’t kidding ! Wow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 New tornado warning and back down to softball sized hail. Quote BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service North Platte NE 941 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022 The National Weather Service in North Platte has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northeastern Garfield County in north central Nebraska... South central Holt County in north central Nebraska... Northwestern Wheeler County in north central Nebraska... * Until 1030 PM CDT. * At 940 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 12 miles south of Amelia, or 19 miles north of Burwell, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and softball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Chambers around 1015 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Buffalo Flats, Goose Lake State Wildlife Management Area, Sunfish Lake, Cumminsville and Four Corners. # # This includes Highway 281 between mile markers 147 and 169. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 4196 9906 4214 9910 4227 9861 4196 9850 TIME...MOT...LOC 0240Z 247DEG 26KT 4204 9900 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...4.00 IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Bman10 said: They weren’t kidding ! Wow That's basically DVD sized 🤣 Edited May 30, 2022 by Neoncyclone 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 30, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 30, 2022 Easy to neglect this wind driven-hail squall to the west of this beast of a supercell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 30, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 30, 2022 (edited) Always wild to me how places like the Upper Midwest and Southern Canada manages to pull off tornadic supercells every year when they always pull off temps in the negative 20s and 30s or less. This is in eastern North Dakota Edited May 30, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 47 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: 01z HRRR is struggling. It doesn't see the current central NE supercell until 2 hours from now. Which not only exists but is tornado warned now, by the way. This supercell produced the extreme 4.25" hail a while ago (0214z). Here is the cross section of ZDR (differential reflectivity) which indicates a strong updraft. Also shown is the hail algorithm, which underestimated the hail (a first?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 30, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 30, 2022 75 significant tornado ingredient contour showed up with the 0z suite for tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 I'm pretty concerned about tomorrow's potential, extremely dangerous day ahead. Storm motion will probably be extremely fast so hopefully everyone up there is ready. I won't be able to track this one much, as I'm pretty busy all day tomorrow with work and some other stuff. Also I don't think a 30 hatched tornado area is out of the question here but it's probably not gonna happen, either way this should be the biggest tornado day since 5/4 and has a good chance to be the biggest of the month and maybe even year (so far) IMO... 0z HRRR is looking pretty interesting for Tuesday at the end of the run, nice line from C KS to the TX panhandle. Wouldn't be surprised to see an upgrade for that area at some point. Yeah these next few days are gonna be wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bman10 Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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