May 29th - June 3rd?, 2022 | Severe Weather

[so_whats_happening]

Wow im not liking the looks of that kind of reminds me of the low that ejected out from the Panhandle of Oklahoma mid December.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Sunday is getting awfully close to being uncapped in Kansas on NAM

 

Central KS

 

Just SW of Topeka

 

NW Iowa

[ClicheVortex2014]

Here's the last 3 NAM runs for the same location, same time. Just SW of Topeka. Starting with 0z NAM ending with 12z NAM. That's a substantial trend.

 

Edited May 27, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

12z NAM is a bit much. 

982mb low on May 30 in the vicinity of upper-60 dew points in northern Minnesota. That's insane.

[ClicheVortex2014]

2 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

12z NAM is a bit much. 

982mb low on May 30 in the vicinity of upper-60 dew points in northern Minnesota. That's insane.

Tiny difference between 12z and 18z NAM

That kind-of-triple point in Kansas is certainly something worth watching IF the cap can break.

Edited May 27, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

That... is a deep mixed layer.

(Kansas)

[ClicheVortex2014]

0z HRRR goes out through Sunday evening. Really nothing impressive but I'm not surprised by that. Kansas is pretty strongly capped but I still think that's an area that needs watched given NAM's trend

Edited May 28, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Ingyball]

The big thing to watch will be just how dry the midlevel moisture in Kansas is. If the models are too dry then there's more potential for the cap to break. If not then there's a good shot we stay capped. Low level moisture shouldn't be a problem with how much rain we just got. 

[ElectricStorm]

After a very inactive second half of the month for my area, it looks like we may have some potential for a solid event to close out the month

[snowlover2]

So they added an enhanced area in the northern plains on the 13z update and promptly drop it at the 1630z update.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Impressive wording for day 3. 

I like the 5% that goes slightly into Canada. Umm, overstep much? 😄

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0242 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022

   Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NORTH
   DAKOTA...WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WESTERN IOWA...AND FAR
   SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast from parts of the Upper
   Midwest southward into the central Great Plains on Monday and Monday
   night.  Tornadoes, perhaps a few strong tornadoes, large to giant
   hail, and severe gusts are possible.

   ...Upper Midwest into the central Great Plains...
   A potent mid-level shortwave trough will move through the base of a
   larger-scale trough --centered over the Great Basin-- from southeast
   CO northeastward to northern MN while evolving into a mid-level low
   by daybreak Tuesday.  An associated 500 mb speed max will intensify
   during the day with 100 kt southwesterly flow progged over eastern
   Nebraska by the late afternoon.  A cyclone will deepen as it moves
   from northern KS north-northeastward into eastern SD by mid evening
   before occluding.  A dryline will extend south-southwestward from
   the lower to mid MO Valley into central KS and near the TX
   Panhandle/OK border.  

   Isolated elevated thunderstorms are possible early Monday morning
   from remnant storms on the nose of a strong LLJ in the SD/NE/IA/MN
   region.  This activity will likely dissipate during the morning as
   strong southerly flow advects richer low-level moisture northward
   into the Upper Midwest by midday.  Model guidance indicates mid to
   upper 60s dewpoints from the Upper Midwest southward into IA. 
   Large-scale ascent associated with the approaching disturbance will
   likely lead to scattered storms initiating by the early to mid
   afternoon northeast of the northeastward-developing cyclone. 
   Enlarged hodographs and strong shear through a deep layer will favor
   supercells, especially in the eastern Dakotas/western MN area during
   the afternoon.  Tornadoes and large hail are possible with the more
   intense supercells.  A few of the tornadoes may be strong given 300+
   m2/s2 0-1 km SRH.  Additional storms are forecast to develop by the
   early evening across southern MN into IA with severe gusts becoming
   increasingly probable, in additional to a lingering hail and perhaps
   tornado risk.

   Farther south along the dryline, a capping inversion will weaken by
   the mid-late afternoon amidst a very unstable airmass (3000-4000
   J/kg MLCAPE).  Once the cap is breached, rapid supercell development
   is expected on the southern flank of a cluster of storms from
   southeastern NE into central KS.  Large to giant hail is possible
   initially, and as the low-level flow increases during the 23-01z
   period, the risk for a tornado will correspondingly increase along
   with the risk for a strong tornado.  Storms will probably
   consolidate during the evening as 850 mb flow increases and the risk
   for a tornado will gradually lessen by mid-late evening as the main
   threats transition to primarily a wind/hail threat into the
   overnight.

 

Edited May 29, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Erroneous sounding! 151 supercell composite. 2100 0-1km srh. 160 knot surface winds. Shame all the instability is elevated and the low-levels are very dry. I'd love to see the STP.

Edited May 29, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Got a MCV in northwestern South Dakota. Could make things a little more interesting tomorrow if it moves more east.

Edited May 29, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

0z HRRR looks absolutely insane for Monday. Soundings ahead of the MCS absolutely screams derecho.

 

Sounding is for east-central MN. 90 knots at 500mb???? 50-60 knots in the low levels. Inverted V thermo profile. Really can't be more clear that there'd be a high-end wind event.

 

Then semi-discrete cells pop along the dryline further south. Can't trust HRRR that much at this range, but wow. Some serious potential.

 

Edited May 29, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Neoncyclone]

00z HRRR, keeps things really interesting for tomorrow and the 30th, gonna be busy.

[Neoncyclone]

1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

0z HRRR looks absolutely insane for Monday. Soundings ahead of the MCS absolutely screams derecho.

 

Sounding is for east-central MN. 90 knots at 500mb???? 50-60 knots in the low levels. Inverted V thermo profile. Really can't be more clear that there'd be a high-end wind event.

 

Then semi-discrete cells pop along the dryline further south. Can't trust HRRR that much at this range, but wow. Some serious potential.

Whoops, I posted right after you 🤣

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

0z HRRR looks absolutely insane for Monday. Soundings ahead of the MCS absolutely screams derecho.

 

Sounding is for east-central MN. 90 knots at 500mb???? 50-60 knots in the low levels. Inverted V thermo profile. Really can't be more clear that there'd be a high-end wind event.

 

 

Then semi-discrete cells pop along the dryline further south. Can't trust HRRR that much at this range, but wow. Some serious potential.

 

 

 

The further east, the better.

 

Sorry downstream folks!

[Ingyball]

I'd say right now Monday is looking like a big hailer day than a tornado one in Kansas. HRRR/NAM/FV3 are all pretty much uncapped. Deep layer shear is phenomenal with 45-60kt on all of those 3 (You have to use 0-6km on FV3 since those soundings never get to the EL unfortunately), 0-3km shear and SRH is decent, however 0-1km shear and SRH leave a bit more to be desired when it comes to tornadoes. More specifically effective inflow at 0-1km would favor crosswise vorticity over streamwise vorticity so if supercells do go up they would more likely be of the battleship shape than the mothership. This would favor the giant hail that SPC mentions over the strong tornado they also mentioned. Obviously that doesn't mean a tornado can't happen as it absolutely can, but as of now I'd say that's the lower threat. It doesn't take much to completely change that however, an outflow boundary that works both as a location for low level convergence and also alters storm motion to be more favorable could quickly increase the tornado threat. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

This kind of negative tilt is always more than enough reason for concern. Reminds me of 12/15 and 5/12 just in terms of extremely strong wind fields.

Notice the 80+ knot winds intersect with much of the warm sector in Minnesota. Yikes.

[ElectricStorm]

Yeah I think Monday has some serious all around potential. May not be a massive tornado event but it will probably be a pretty big wind event. Dangerous day ahead... 

[ClicheVortex2014]

If it were up to me I'd go with a day 2 moderate. 45% hatched wind corridor in Minnesota... keep tornado threat at 10% hatched for now. Seems inevitable that this'll be a moderate risk day. But there's only a slight difference between me and SPC forecasters 😄

 

Edited May 29, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Since the UH tracks are blocking the colors and there's no color bar... here's the mean STP for the last frame. Nice blob of 7+ mean STP in northern Minnesota. Don't get that many times per year. 

The storm mode in northern Minnesota is probably gonna be linear so STP doesn't mean as much. But the blobs of 4-5 STP along the dryline in IA/NE/KS are worrying because storm mode is more likely to be discrete.

 

[snowlover2]

New day 2 continues the strong wording from previous day 3.

Quote

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0100 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2022  
  
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN SOUTH  
DAKOTA INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...WESTERN AND SOUTHERN  
MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER  
MIDWEST SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY  
NIGHT.  LARGE TO GIANT HAIL, 60-80 MPH GUSTS, AND SEVERAL TORNADOES  
ARE PROBABLE, INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR A COUPLE OF INTENSE  
LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST.  
  
A DYNAMIC LATE-SPRING PATTERN IS FORECAST ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY  
NIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE-WEATHER OUTBREAK OVER PARTS  
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST.  
   
..UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS  
  
A POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM  
SOUTHEAST CO NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHERN MN WHILE EVOLVING INTO A  
MID-LEVEL LOW.  AN ASSOCIATED 500 MB SPEED MAX WILL INTENSIFY  
DURING THE DAY WITH 100 KT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVING FROM EASTERN NE  
INTO SOUTHERN MN DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  A  
CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES FROM NORTHERN KS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD  
INTO EASTERN SD BY MID EVENING BEFORE OCCLUDING.  A DRYLINE WILL  
EXTEND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOWER TO MID MO VALLEY INTO  
CENTRAL KS AND NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE/OK BORDER.  
  
ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING ON  
THE NOSE OF A STRONG LLJ IN THE SD/NE/IA/MN REGION.  THIS ACTIVITY  
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING AS A WARM FRONT ADVANCES  
NORTHWARD.  STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT RICHER LOW-LEVEL  
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN BY  
MIDDAY.  SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE  
MORNING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NE AS UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION INCREASES  
WITH THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.  HAVE TRENDED WESTWARD WITH  
SEVERE-WEATHER PROBABILITIES AS A RESULT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME  
UNCAPPED BY MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST SD WITH  
LARGE CAPE (2500 J/KG MLCAPE) AND A WIND PROFILE STRONGLY SUPPORTING  
SUPERCELLS.  LOWEST 100 MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS 13-14 G/KG IN A ZONE  
WHERE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WILL MAXIMIZE NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE  
LOW, WILL COMBINE WITH ENLARGING HODOGRAPHS TO FAVOR STRONG  
SUPERCELLS.  LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL IS PROBABLE ALONG WITH SEVERAL  
TORNADOES DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  A COUPLE OF  
INTENSE LONG-TRACK TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IF 1) FAVORABLE STORM MODE  
DEVELOPS AND 2) A NOTABLE ABSENCE OF OTHER CONVECTION AND  
DESTRUCTIVE STORM-TO-STORM INTERACTIONS IS LIMITED.  ADDITIONAL  
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN AN ARC FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO IA AND  
POSSIBLY EASTERN NE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.  AN  
EVENTUAL CONSOLIDATION OF STORMS AND OUTFLOW WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO  
THE RISK FOR SEVERE GUSTS TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS MN  
AS THE ACTIVITY QUICKLY MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.  
  
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE, A WARM AND MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS  
CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS, WILL BECOME VERY  
UNSTABLE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  MODEL GUIDANCE  
INDICATES ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE  
KS/NE BORDER TO POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS NORTHWEST OK/KS BORDER.  
LARGE TO GIANT HAIL IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A TORNADO RISK AS  
LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  A CLUSTER OF  
STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING WITH A TRANSITION TO MAINLY A  
HAIL/WIND RISK POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
  
..SMITH.. 05/29/2022 

 

 

[Neoncyclone]

06z HRRR for Day 2, no wonder they went with a 10% hatched, there's some serious potential.

Edited May 29, 2022 by Neoncyclone

[Neoncyclone]

Sounding in MN in the warm sector. 3000 CAPE, 45 kts low-level shear, 80+ kts deep layer shear, 600+ SRH from sfc-3km. Storms will be explosive to say the least if this verifies.

Edited May 29, 2022 by Neoncyclone