Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 25, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted June 25, 2022 (edited) 20% chance of a tropical system in the next 5-days. Exactly where there's extremely warm water. Almost 90 degree water off the coast of Louisiana. Edited June 25, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted June 27, 2022 Moderators Share Posted June 27, 2022 Naming heatwaves? https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/08/06/naming-heat-waves/#:~:text=“Naming heat waves is the clearest way to,Climate Insurance Working Group%2C in which she participates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cdfarabaugh Posted June 27, 2022 Share Posted June 27, 2022 2 hours ago, Hiramite said: Naming heatwaves? https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/08/06/naming-heat-waves/#:~:text=“Naming heat waves is the clearest way to,Climate Insurance Working Group%2C in which she participates. Oh for fucks sake........ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted June 27, 2022 Share Posted June 27, 2022 On 6/25/2022 at 7:05 PM, ClicheVortex2014 said: 20% chance of a tropical system in the next 5-days. Exactly where there's extremely warm water. Almost 90 degree water off the coast of Louisiana. Is it just me or does it seem like the gulf gets hotter and hotter earlier and earlier every year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 27, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted June 27, 2022 (edited) 15 hours ago, 1816 said: Is it just me or does it seem like the gulf gets hotter and hotter earlier and earlier every year? I'm not particularly knowledgeable about the tropical Atlantic, but the MDR (main development region) tends to be very dependent upon long-term surface winds which trickles down to ENSO and AO/NAO. Given we've been in a nearly 3-year long Nina, it's not surprising to me that the Gulf is way warmer than normal. (Technically was a brief break in the Nina last summer because it dipped to -0.4C for 2 trimonthly periods but I really doubt that changes anything in the real world) The MDR is more dependent upon the prevailing pressure system in the central/northern Atlantic which is more influenced by AO/NAO, which has been more variable. But.... of course, one can't deny the impact of global warming and the warming of the Gulf stream Unless we see a prolonged period in which unseasonably cool air penetrates the Gulf, this is looking like a very dangerous year for the Gulf coast. ONI actually suggests the Nina strengthened since the beginning of Spring which is very unusual and suggests we won't see the southern ridge relax any time soon. Edited June 27, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted June 27, 2022 Share Posted June 27, 2022 8 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: I'm not particularly knowledgeable about the tropical Atlantic, but the MDR (main development region) tends to be very dependent upon long-term surface winds which trickles down to ENSO and AO/NAO. Given we've been in a nearly 3-year long Nina, it's not surprising to me that the Gulf is way warmer than normal. (Technically was a brief break in the Nina last summer because it dipped to -0.4C for 2 trimonthly periods but I really doubt that changes anything in the real world) The MDR is more dependent upon the prevailing pressure system in the central/northern Atlantic which is more influenced by AO/NAO, which has been more variable. But.... of course, one can't deny the impact of global warming and the warming of the Gulf stream Unless we see a prolonged period in which unseasonably cool air penetrates the Gulf, this is looking like a very dangerous year for the Gulf coast. ONI actually suggests the Nina strengthened since the beginning of Spring which is very unusual and suggests we won't see the southern ridge relax any time soon. Obviously I don't have the knowledge of the driving factors like you guys do but I have a pretty ok memory. The super warm gulf and gulf stream has been present for I believe even longer than this Nina streak. Maybe climate change or whatever, who knows. But I really believe that this rocket fuel water has a lot to do with how it seems like every storm overperforms to the max. Any time a storm isn't fighting shear or dry air it just goes bananas. Going back a number of years now. I'm a non scientific lazy gut guy but I'd be losing sleep if I lived on the gulf or Atlantic coast until about December I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 27, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted June 27, 2022 (edited) 11 minutes ago, 1816 said: Obviously I don't have the knowledge of the driving factors like you guys do but I have a pretty ok memory. The super warm gulf and gulf stream has been present for I believe even longer than this Nina streak. Maybe climate change or whatever, who knows. But I really believe that this rocket fuel water has a lot to do with how it seems like every storm overperforms to the max. Any time a storm isn't fighting shear or dry air it just goes bananas. Going back a number of years now. I'm a non scientific lazy gut guy but I'd be losing sleep if I lived on the gulf or Atlantic coast until about December I think. I'll definitely take your word for it regarding the Gulf. I have a killer memory when it comes to severe weather, but not so much about winter storms and tropical storms. I do know the Gulf has been a hotspot since 2017. I really doubt that'll change this year unfortunately. What's been more inconsistent is the MDR. But the Gulf is ridiculous. Very scary potential. Edited June 27, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted June 27, 2022 Share Posted June 27, 2022 For some reason the 1930s keep getting stuck in my head. Unless we get a bunch of dry Saharan air mucking things up or somehow shear manages to do the deed repeatedly, I feel like either the keys again or new England gets a monster. I really hope I'm wrong about that but it keeps coming to my mind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 27, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted June 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, 1816 said: For some reason the 1930s keep getting stuck in my head. Unless we get a bunch of dry Saharan air mucking things up or somehow shear manages to do the deed repeatedly, I feel like either the keys again or new England gets a monster. I really hope I'm wrong about that but it keeps coming to my mind. Usually not a good sign when NOAA releases outlooks like this. 10% chance of below normal is kinda a big deal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 27, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted June 27, 2022 Probably not a good sign 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted July 5, 2022 Moderators Share Posted July 5, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Al_Czervik Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 Last year and this year seem pretty similar for my location. June Warm and Dry for both 2021/22 July looks to be cooler, we will have to see if the NW flow brings storms. One interesting tidbit I have noticed is the the Pacific Northwest is cooler and rainier than I would expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 28, 2022 Moderators Share Posted July 28, 2022 (edited) Next two weeks look warm, but as warm as the CPC suggests. Better apples to apples Edited July 28, 2022 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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