Spring 2022 | Outlooks and Discussion

[MotownWX]

LOT says next week's temperatures could be "a good deal cooler than official forecast" and suggests wintry precipitation by midweek.  

It's fantasy range stuff, so take with a grain of salt, but the GFS does show another snow-maker rolling through the Lower Great Lakes around Wednesday next week. 

I'm okay with my current low/mid 50s forecast next week, even though that's still 5-8 degrees below average.  But that forecast might be a house of cards.  I can see future forecasts continually adjusting down to where it'll barely scrape the 40s when it's all said and done.  

Bottom Line: Enjoy those 48 hours of really pleasant weather this weekend. 

[MotownWX]

5 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Thoughts from LOT meteorologist backing these maps.

Yup, a couple weeks ago Brett Anderson basically said the weather will be a cool, wet wreck in the Great Lakes through mid May, once again due to all the high pressure blocking in the Arctic.  

Edited April 19, 2022 by MotownWX

[StretchCT]

Looking at some pretty cool temps to end April and start May.  Seasonal lag in force now.  

[StretchCT]

EPS look at anomalies

[Al_Czervik]

20 hours ago, Ingyball said:

This is just for the 8-14 day period, I've been talking about the overall Summer pattern. 

That was intended for Motown, we live in the same city.  

[Cdfarabaugh]

*Cough Cough*   accidentally used my old favorites shortcut and came across this gem

Edited April 20, 2022 by Cdfarabaugh

[MotownWX]

While an extended cooldown is certainly going to happen next week, the last couple long-range GFS runs aren't as "scary blue" as they were yesterday.  Maybe it'll revert back, but still kinda noteworthy.  

[so_whats_happening]

Well its been a weee bit chilly to say the least for a little more than halfway look through the month. Probably will erase some of the warmth in the NE as we end the month with back door cold fronts looking to take over here and there to about SNE. Midwest from Chicago south and into some of the front range also should warm slightly but no positive territory to be seen in the overall. Mid Atlantic may be a wash to close out the month with still back and forth conditions.

Pattern just doesnt want to seem to break up yet may even continue into early May. Snowfall continues across areas of North/South dakota closer to the rockies WY and MT need some good snows to happen too, all this is a good thing in the long term for water supplies as much as im sure it sucks would be good to continue for a little bit longer though slow melt would be the best scenario for them up that way but overall it is nice to see moisture returning through much of the front range stretching from TX to the Canadian border. 

[Al_Czervik]

5 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Well its been a weee bit chilly to say the least for a little more than halfway look through the month. Probably will erase some of the warmth in the NE as we end the month with back door cold fronts looking to take over here and there to about SNE. Midwest from Chicago south and into some of the front range also should warm slightly but no positive territory to be seen in the overall. Mid Atlantic may be a wash to close out the month with still back and forth conditions.

Pattern just doesnt want to seem to break up yet may even continue into early May. Snowfall continues across areas of North/South dakota closer to the rockies WY and MT need some good snows to happen too, all this is a good thing in the long term for water supplies as much as im sure it sucks would be good to continue for a little bit longer though slow melt would be the best scenario for them up that way but overall it is nice to see moisture returning through much of the front range stretching from TX to the Canadian border. 

Same song and dance as always.  You hear, oh pattern change by the end of March.  Then it is Mid April, now it is mid May.  Only thing that has changed is the year.  

We can't seem to get a simple flipping week of temps at normal.  I wonder how far planting is behind this year due to the weather.  

 

[so_whats_happening]

46 minutes ago, Al_Czervik said:

Same song and dance as always.  You hear, oh pattern change by the end of March.  Then it is Mid April, now it is mid May.  Only thing that has changed is the year.  

We can't seem to get a simple flipping week of temps at normal.  I wonder how far planting is behind this year due to the weather.  

 

The golden rule we have always talked about in this area (SE PA) is to plant after mothers day. Temps too variable from Equinox to that point so it is hard to maintain anything substantial even for this region farmers are tilling the fields and laying down the manure, been mighty pleasant smells over the past couple weeks. It really does not help you live near large lakes that in itself is a game changer for temps just as much as living near the Atlantic ocean is in the winter. We have also experienced a number of late season SSW events which almost always correlate to lower temps through late winter early spring across much east.

 

The biggest thing of note so far this year is the lack of higher dew points by this time of year. Usually we start to really pump in the dews ending the month and going into May but with us still getting decent cold swings it is hard to pump up the GOM moisture. When it does get going it is rather shallow so most areas south of the ohio valley experience those 60 dews with us 50s but our SW and W flow pattern has kept things at bay so far. Models have been hinting though this sunday into early week stands our best chance of touching the 60 dew point mark before the cold front mid week and return to cooler than average to end April.

You can thank persistence in the pattern for this cold seems we have been stuck in a pattern where cold dumps east of the Rockies with intermittent robust warming events mixed. Very wavy still, I believe I had talked about this before the debacle of the last forum happened, the cold has been rather continuous so far over the upper midwest and would need to some extensive ridging patterns to break the cold on the year up that way. 

You can see what the pattern has essentially been like for the past 3 months. Of course we have time periods where it relaxes and shuffles around but consistently this has been the idea from the new year on. High latitude ridging present keeping the Arctic warmer overall than what it should be leading to the bucket spilling in the 2 places globally when this happens Eastern Europe and the US. Seems our side has had bit more influence from the Tropospheric PV this year than on the other side of the planet. Which probably gives us more of cold shock than we are use to overall.

This trough setup also inhibits large return flow from streaming north and allowing the severe weather to go bonkers. Good thing but bad for areas along the coast and up to about the Tennessee River valley that can manage enough of return flow and with jet dynamics at play.

There may be a sudden pattern reversal (1 month reversal is rather sudden going from cold constantly to warm constantly) but have yet to see anything actually occur that is noteworthy. We have a snowpack forming again in the upper plains which could start to help shift the troughing further west and allow more ridging to take hold but that strong PV split really did a number on the system literally setting things back to status quo.

Maybe we need to warm the PDO region to potentially allow for the warmth to take over much more?

[MotownWX]

9 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

 

I was actually surprised that my (DTX) April departure is "only" at -2.5.  But then as I suspected, the grey, dreary conditions have kept the overnight lows buoyed up.  My high temps are at -4.9, and low temps at -0.2.  

Those greens in the GL will get chewed up over this weekend, but return next week.  So the month will probably end looking a lot like this current map. 

The CFS May outlook - at this point in time - is looking identical to this map.  When that mild Canadian Arctic block develops this time of year, you pretty much have to ride it out for the entire season.  

[Al_Czervik]

2 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

The golden rule we have always talked about in this area (SE PA) is to plant after mothers day. Temps too variable from Equinox to that point so it is hard to maintain anything substantial even for this region farmers are tilling the fields and laying down the manure, been mighty pleasant smells over the past couple weeks. It really does not help you live near large lakes that in itself is a game changer for temps just as much as living near the Atlantic ocean is in the winter. We have also experienced a number of late season SSW events which almost always correlate to lower temps through late winter early spring across much east.

 

The biggest thing of note so far this year is the lack of higher dew points by this time of year. Usually we start to really pump in the dews ending the month and going into May but with us still getting decent cold swings it is hard to pump up the GOM moisture. When it does get going it is rather shallow so most areas south of the ohio valley experience those 60 dews with us 50s but our SW and W flow pattern has kept things at bay so far. Models have been hinting though this sunday into early week stands our best chance of touching the 60 dew point mark before the cold front mid week and return to cooler than average to end April.

You can thank persistence in the pattern for this cold seems we have been stuck in a pattern where cold dumps east of the Rockies with intermittent robust warming events mixed. Very wavy still, I believe I had talked about this before the debacle of the last forum happened, the cold has been rather continuous so far over the upper midwest and would need to some extensive ridging patterns to break the cold on the year up that way. 

You can see what the pattern has essentially been like for the past 3 months. Of course we have time periods where it relaxes and shuffles around but consistently this has been the idea from the new year on. High latitude ridging present keeping the Arctic warmer overall than what it should be leading to the bucket spilling in the 2 places globally when this happens Eastern Europe and the US. Seems our side has had bit more influence from the Tropospheric PV this year than on the other side of the planet. Which probably gives us more of cold shock than we are use to overall.

This trough setup also inhibits large return flow from streaming north and allowing the severe weather to go bonkers. Good thing but bad for areas along the coast and up to about the Tennessee River valley that can manage enough of return flow and with jet dynamics at play.

There may be a sudden pattern reversal (1 month reversal is rather sudden going from cold constantly to warm constantly) but have yet to see anything actually occur that is noteworthy. We have a snowpack forming again in the upper plains which could start to help shift the troughing further west and allow more ridging to take hold but that strong PV split really did a number on the system literally setting things back to status quo.

Maybe we need to warm the PDO region to potentially allow for the warmth to take over much more?

What amazes me is this, this has been ongoing since January, you get a 2-3 day reprieve and then right back in the crapper.  Why would anyone think it would change.  In terms of weather, for something that never promises consistency this is pretty flipping consistent.  It is hard when you live in a area where you maybe get 4-5 months of actual decent weather.  Now to find out you have lost April, May looks to be equally crappy.  Hell, Maybe June, July and August will be awesome, I am not betting on it.  Hell I need to move to Cincinnati, just to get back to where we used to be.

 

[MaineJay]

On 4/21/2022 at 12:20 AM, so_whats_happening said:

Well its been a weee bit chilly to say the least for a little more than halfway look through the month. Probably will erase some of the warmth in the NE as we end the month with back door cold fronts looking to take over here and there to about SNE. Midwest from Chicago south and into some of the front range also should warm slightly but no positive territory to be seen in the overall. Mid Atlantic may be a wash to close out the month with still back and forth conditions.

Pattern just doesnt want to seem to break up yet may even continue into early May. Snowfall continues across areas of North/South dakota closer to the rockies WY and MT need some good snows to happen too, all this is a good thing in the long term for water supplies as much as im sure it sucks would be good to continue for a little bit longer though slow melt would be the best scenario for them up that way but overall it is nice to see moisture returning through much of the front range stretching from TX to the Canadian border. 

It's funny, it hasn't been above 65° at my house yet I don't believe, but it's certainly been mild. The absence of a snowpack to start the month probably ate into overnight low temps.  And despite what my wife tells me, it hasn't rained that much, so the ground is pretty damn dry for this time of year and the sun (when out) has boosted temps above forecast on many occasions.

  Forsythia is blooming now, blueberries are setting buds, so signs of spring are there.  The snow was gone so early that it "seems" things are delayed. There are plenty of years where the lakes and ponds in my area were still iced into late April. 

[so_whats_happening]

On 4/22/2022 at 6:39 AM, MaineJay said:

It's funny, it hasn't been above 65° at my house yet I don't believe, but it's certainly been mild. The absence of a snowpack to start the month probably ate into overnight low temps.  And despite what my wife tells me, it hasn't rained that much, so the ground is pretty damn dry for this time of year and the sun (when out) has boosted temps above forecast on many occasions.

  Forsythia is blooming now, blueberries are setting buds, so signs of spring are there.  The snow was gone so early that it "seems" things are delayed. There are plenty of years where the lakes and ponds in my area were still iced into late April. 

Yea up and down 95 is still rather dry for this time of year. SE NY and NJ area have seen a burst if you will through april so they will average above for this month but everywhere else is average or below and coming off a below average march is also not a great way to start spring. Since the start of the water year it is easily noticeable La Nina background state is present for much of the east. Interesting to seee the Gulf of Mexico area though that may play some issue come summer with a heat bubble. Been seeing mentions of an extensive ridging setting up through the inter mountains into the plains and a small troughing pattern through OH Valley and the SE with another ridge just off the NE Atlantic coast. This is a moisture feed scenario into the East coast especially from NC on north so we may break this dry but with tropical issues as we move into late spring early summer.

 

Truly what has been something is the lack of decent dewpoint air. This sunday to tuesday was supposed to be our best chance at pushing close to 60 dewpoint, without rainfall occurring, which now looks like low to mid 50s but relatively decent temps probably some low 80s mixed in. We are just turning the corner to May this week and have yet to hit those dewpoint values I see it as a good thing and bad thing. Would love to have a summer with low dewpoints, highly unlikely of course, but would mean much warmer conditions could be around until we get the tropics really going.

Time will tell of course but it easily looks like this continues into the first week of May with the cooler than average temps. We never got to establish a trough out west other than a few days of action here and there most of the storm track has now stayed in the high plains dragging cold fronts along our way good for them for rainfall/snowfall. Ridging still fairly prevalent into central Canada again a big reason for early opennings of sea ice in the western CAA north of Alaska to the Chukchi.

If I have some time Ill see if we have similar years to this with moisture and temps so far.

[StormfanaticInd]

 

This la nina is solid. 

[StormfanaticInd]

Not a bad look coming up

[so_whats_happening]

On 4/28/2022 at 12:53 AM, StormfanaticInd said:

 

This la nina is solid. 

For now though. We see that the IO as a whole is rather warm now eastern portions near the west coast of Australia are cooling a bit over the past 2 weeks. Still quite the warm bubble near Indonesia. The -PDO look is holding on for now but there is some pretty substantial warming taking place off the Canada/ Alaskan border which could put a damper on the -PDO signal as we move through time which will help relieve the La Nina influence. We also have subsurface now showing another robust warming moving into the key spot of 160-140 W. This is is usually where we see the waters run along the thermocline and allow the surfacing in the central to East PAC. Cool waters will still hold on for some time in Nino 4 unless we get some robust WWB events in the future but with a MJO rather flat right now it is a wait and see.

This Hovmoller look would be interesting to watch unfold, would mean a potential WWB event which would allow those warmer waters to push themselves further east in time toward the end of the month which again would allow for surfacing in mid June/ Early July in the 1+2, 3 region and could actually flip the anomalies. Giving way to a neutral or warm neutral scenario come early fall. Of course we all know time will tell but Nino 4 will surely stay relatively the same with the cooler waters. Big reason for the modoki look unfortunately probably will be classified as neutral going into winter so we may now not get the third year la nina. The last WWB event was with tropical activity and this one seems no different. Dual cyclones on both sides of the Equator should help create a decent burst but personally I like seeing these over around 5/6 region of the MJO not 3 but we will see what it can produce.

The OLR says otherwise for now on an atmospheric changeup to occur signaling the demise of the La Nina. Should at least be a hot start to the summer for many east of the rockies but if we start to change up the atmospheric background state come early summer (~1.5 months from now) this may change. Ill see if I can come up with some graphics for this summer pattern later this week.

[so_whats_happening]

Interesting times to watch unfold. The atmospheric state as mentioned above doesn't seem to want to budge. We keep getting ridging popping up from desert SW/ West Texas that balloons up into the western US and connect with the ridging that keeps popping up in Western Canada and Alaska. Same thing happening in Europe where much of central and Eastern Europe seem to keep ballooning a ridge that pushes into Scandinavia. Carving out a trough over Russia and Siberia and some of the most western areas of Europe near the Atlantic. These have been features for about a solid month now with intermittent changes.

We can see that from the OLR map just above too that really this overall has been consistent since the beginning of January with those breaks when we were not seeing the +30 to +40 portions. We saw them disappear in December and that month was quite the warm month when November overall was cooler and those values were present at the beginning of the month. Same thing happened where we had a relaxing period and warmed at the end of February into mid March.

The combo of that SSW in mid March and the pattern returning to the +30 to +40 OLR really put the cooldown over this way. May have a warm end of May into June if the pattern relaxes again.

If i remember correctly and this is what is taking place with the downwelling from the SSW the last bout should be close to mid month of May (30, 45, and 60 days) after it took place I think are the times we see the cooling occur. So that puts us perfectly into mid to late May for warming. So brief warm spell ahead of it end of this week.

Edited May 2, 2022 by so_whats_happening

[Al_Czervik]

2 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Interesting times to watch unfold. The atmospheric state as mentioned above doesn't seem to want to budge. We keep getting ridging popping up from desert SW/ West Texas that balloons up into the western US and connect with the ridging that keeps popping up in Western Canada and Alaska. Same thing happening in Europe where much of central and Eastern Europe seem to keep ballooning a ridge that pushes into Scandinavia. Carving out a trough over Russia and Siberia and some of the most western areas of Europe near the Atlantic. These have been features for about a solid month now with intermittent changes.

We can see that from the OLR map just above too that really this overall has been consistent since the beginning of January with those breaks when we were not seeing the +30 to +40 portions. We saw them disappear in December and that month was quite the warm month when November overall was cooler and those values were present at the beginning of the month. Same thing happened where we had a relaxing period and warmed at the end of February into mid March.

The combo of that SSW in mid March and the pattern returning to the +30 to +40 OLR really put the cooldown over this way. May have a warm end of May into June if the pattern relaxes again.

If i remember correctly and this is what is taking place with the downwelling from the SSW the last bout should be close to mid month of May (30, 45, and 60 days) after it took place I think are the times we see the cooling occur. So that puts us perfectly into mid to late May for warming. So brief warm spell ahead of it end of this week.

I would add this.  I think any return to normal will be muted and probably for most of the summer.  The heat and drought will continue to provide more fuel to the ridge in the west.  With this anchored in place, the other side of the coin is cooler conditions and rain in the East.  There are places in the upper Midwest, (Northern Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan) that are running 10 degrees below normal over the last few months.  So if the northwest flow doesn't relax.  I wouldn't expect temps in the Great Lakes region to hit normal or even be slightly below normal.  I think we could see 5-10 even through the summer.  The interesting thought is could this summer rival 1992 in terms of coolness and wetness for the Great Lakes?

It is strange because last year also coming off a la nina year, we had a decent spring and start to summer.  I compared my natural gas usage for heating over the past three years and the increase this year is very steep.  Keep in mind my thermostat is locked at 66.

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, Al_Czervik said:

I would add this.  I think any return to normal will be muted and probably for most of the summer.  The heat and drought will continue to provide more fuel to the ridge in the west.  With this anchored in place, the other side of the coin is cooler conditions and rain in the East.  There are places in the upper Midwest, (Northern Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan) that are running 10 degrees below normal over the last few months.  So if the northwest flow doesn't relax.  I wouldn't expect temps in the Great Lakes region to hit normal or even be slightly below normal.  I think we could see 5-10 even through the summer.  The interesting thought is could this summer rival 1992 in terms of coolness and wetness for the Great Lakes?

It is strange because last year also coming off a la nina year, we had a decent spring and start to summer.  I compared my natural gas usage for heating over the past three years and the increase this year is very steep.  Keep in mind my thermostat is locked at 66.

So I just did a quick look before I head home, now im sure there are other factors that have played into these outcomes but going solely on the idea of leaving our current La Nina state and either heading into cool neutral so less than 0 but not quite La Nina status or going into a neutral warm state >0 or showing el nino forming into summer.

 

Neutral cool years: 1950,1956,1974*, 1985, 1989, 1996, 2001, 2008

Neutral - warm years: 1976, 2009, 2012, 2018

We seem to have quite a bit of neutral to neutral years mixed in between La Nina and El Nino so those may have to be brought up in another post but strictly going from a La Nina out of winter (whether strong, moderate, or weak) to neutral (cool or gaining steam to warmth) has yielded these for May to August.

 

Certainly eye opening on that idea so we either have a full on trough idea as displayed in years of cool neutral or we have more of a SE coast cooling which definitely shows more of a characteristic look of El Nino setting up. Either way we do have a decent west coast ridge in either case and one could broadly show cool invading the country. I didnt bother to include the map with 1974 in the cool neutral as that was a second year La Nina going into a third year which is yet to be seen from this one.

Key differences are the Gulf of Alaska ridge and the Scandi ridge for March to April were flip flopped in intensity for neutral warm years based from the map above of this years current GPH (geo potential height) map i showed in my last post which has made the difference for how much cold enters the country. A stronger Bering ridge accounts for a deeper trough along the west and ridging in the east where as a stronger ridge near Scandi would offer up -NAO potential and thus a broader trough across much of the upper midwest and even into the northern Rockies at times until we hit an inflection point somewhere mid to late May where -NAO becomes less reliable for allowing the cold to dump in the eastern US.

The warm neutral years offered up warmth through much of the summer and ended the May- August at about +1C for a large portion of the northern country and west. No doubt though we are experiencing much more in the way of ridging in the Arctic compared to these years overall so things may be playing out in a slightly different tune then these had portrayed.

As always time will tell.

So there is hope to say the least.

[Al_Czervik]

On 5/2/2022 at 6:16 AM, so_whats_happening said:

So I just did a quick look before I head home, now im sure there are other factors that have played into these outcomes but going solely on the idea of leaving our current La Nina state and either heading into cool neutral so less than 0 but not quite La Nina status or going into a neutral warm state >0 or showing el nino forming into summer.

 

Neutral cool years: 1950,1956,1974*, 1985, 1989, 1996, 2001, 2008

Neutral - warm years: 1976, 2009, 2012, 2018

We seem to have quite a bit of neutral to neutral years mixed in between La Nina and El Nino so those may have to be brought up in another post but strictly going from a La Nina out of winter (whether strong, moderate, or weak) to neutral (cool or gaining steam to warmth) has yielded these for May to August.

 

Certainly eye opening on that idea so we either have a full on trough idea as displayed in years of cool neutral or we have more of a SE coast cooling which definitely shows more of a characteristic look of El Nino setting up. Either way we do have a decent west coast ridge in either case and one could broadly show cool invading the country. I didnt bother to include the map with 1974 in the cool neutral as that was a second year La Nina going into a third year which is yet to be seen from this one.

Key differences are the Gulf of Alaska ridge and the Scandi ridge for March to April were flip flopped in intensity for neutral warm years based from the map above of this years current GPH (geo potential height) map i showed in my last post which has made the difference for how much cold enters the country. A stronger Bering ridge accounts for a deeper trough along the west and ridging in the east where as a stronger ridge near Scandi would offer up -NAO potential and thus a broader trough across much of the upper midwest and even into the northern Rockies at times until we hit an inflection point somewhere mid to late May where -NAO becomes less reliable for allowing the cold to dump in the eastern US.

The warm neutral years offered up warmth through much of the summer and ended the May- August at about +1C for a large portion of the northern country and west. No doubt though we are experiencing much more in the way of ridging in the Arctic compared to these years overall so things may be playing out in a slightly different tune then these had portrayed.

As always time will tell.

So there is hope to say the least.

What is weird here is that 2009, 2012 and 2018 are lumped into the warm years.  2009 was really cold in July for the Great Lakes.  I wonder what the heck happened in 2009?

 

[so_whats_happening]

6 hours ago, Al_Czervik said:

What is weird here is that 2009, 2012 and 2018 are lumped into the warm years.  2009 was really cold in July for the Great Lakes.  I wonder what the heck happened in 2009?

 

Looks like that summer had a cold start to a less cooler finish. The Nino state was taking over quickly as by that fall we were in a full on El Nino. It was a rather quick collapse of a La nina it was only weak so didnt have nearly as much staying ground as we are currently seeing for this time of year. High latitude blocking with a consistent summer time -NAO helped nudge the little bit of TPV that sits in Canada to get nudged down into the US. May you could see things taking shape then added june and then july notice the ridging is in NW Canada and Alaska versus in jus the continental US and more ridging into the Arctic and Greenland. That year was just on steroids I guess another solar minimum during that time period too. Had the best winter we have seen in a very long time down this way following this summer.