Spring 2022 | Outlooks and Discussion

[Bradjl2009]

15 hours ago, MaineJay said:

I was checking the drought map for my location as it's had become rather dry for the start of April, but looks like I got nothing to whine about. 

Yikes.

 

It's probably going to be another ugly hot summer for those west of the Mississippi, looking at this. 

[Al_Czervik]

8 hours ago, Bradjl2009 said:

It's probably going to be another ugly hot summer for those west of the Mississippi, looking at this. 

What amazes me is the resiliency of the pattern.  This has been ongoing for 5, 10 years?  When is the last time the West has had a decent run of below normal temps or even normal temps.?  If this keeps up we will have to start sending rail cars full of water out west just to sustain the population.

[Bradjl2009]

16 hours ago, Al_Czervik said:

What amazes me is the resiliency of the pattern.  This has been ongoing for 5, 10 years?  When is the last time the West has had a decent run of below normal temps or even normal temps.?  If this keeps up we will have to start sending rail cars full of water out west just to sustain the population.

It looks like the last truly normal summer for much of the West was either in 2011 or 2014 depending on the area you're in (though the far NW has had more luck). This really seems like the new normal for there. 

 

2014 is also the last time most of the lower 48 had a below normal calendar year it looks like. 

Edited April 6, 2022 by Bradjl2009

[ElectricStorm]

 

[StormfanaticInd]

Models are hinting at another possible event by the end of next week. 😬

[Ingyball]

I wanted to share this paper because it challenges the thought of phase 2 being the most favorable state for tornado outbreaks, especially for months MJJ where they found that the MJO had it's highest correlation to tornadogenesis. March still favored phase 2, however they found April favors phases 5-8 more and in MJJ it's phases 3-6. 3 and 4 favor the Plains while 5 and 6 favor the Southeast/Northeast. I don't have time to go back and look at every tornado event to see how it plays out. But I'm thinking of starting a spread sheet this week and labeling the MJO phase for days that tornadoes happen. We'll see. 

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/11/jcli-d-19-0992.1.xml

[ClicheVortex2014]

This year (more appropriately, the past 40 days) has been so active for severe weather and tornadoes that we could go without a tornado for the rest of April and we'd still remain slight above the climatological mean. Not only is it essentially climatologically impossible to have such a quiet stretch at this time of year, we should be back to talking about severe weather again soon.

Keep in mind, for those who haven't been following severe weather lately, today is the second consecutive moderate risk day. This tornado season continues to be relentless.

[ClicheVortex2014]

 

[so_whats_happening]

3 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

 

I wonder if there is a way to somehow replicate the idea of nina/nino from just seeing the pressure differences we have recorded from tahiti and darwin (SOI). Im sure we have had more than just the two 3 year la ninas from about the 1950-current data shows. We have SOI at least to about 1880 ish.

We have potentially now 3 for the record with periodicity of about 20-25 years. Who knows maybe they were more of a frequent thing back then with oceans also cooler overall. If looking at SOI you can see periods of continual positive SOI for a few year stretches some pretty stark years in there that very well could have served 2 year to potentially 3 year ninas.

One other obs is that -SOI doesn't tend to go nearly as low as it was in the past. Even with us seeing super ninos rage in the ocean and setting higher levels. The SOI shows us having higher low dips (if this makes sense to you) but with temps in the ocean on the rise we are adding fuel to these super nino events. 1982/83 was the last largest dip in SOI while showing anomalies 2.2 in the trimonthlies while 2016 set records being 2.6 in trimonthlies but the dip was nearly a third less in the pressure readings. Still a healthy Nino but not to the severity of what 1982/83 was.

I wonder if the expansion of the hadley cell plays a role in this. I dont see how pressures could get lower around the tropics but I can see how pressures are higher in the horse/mid latitudes leading to higher +SOI values in Nina and higher lows (higher -SOI values) in Nino years.

Will be cool to watch if it does hold though would be a rather weak Nina if that is the case more like cool neutral with that warm tongue present.

 

Anyway off of this topic of SOI it looks like we may continue this idea of high latitude ridging holding on and mid latitude troughing and coolness into the end of April. Looks like SW/ desert ridging holding on with ridging into Canada potentially locking in the idea of troughs into much of the central and eastern portions of the country. The Pac NW may still end up troughy overall with the continuation of the -PDO pattern. Overall nothing seems to have shaken up too much. The Atlantic is still Nino like which serves to be another active year, probably early on will have to wait and see how things change going into June . The warm tongue is holding strong through much of the Pacific. The one that does seem to be changing is the IO which is warming this may kickstart and MJO wave with the ridging that has been present the Western IO for some time as we get close to the end of April. We shall see but nothing like going from 70's to even 80's around here to 40's and 50's with graupel back to the 70s a few days later. Spring but on some steroids.

[StormfanaticInd]

I got a feeling late April into June are going to be very active 

[Iceresistance]

6 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

I got a feeling late April into June are going to be very active 

Maybe July & August for the Northern Plains, Canada, the Midwest, Great Lakes, & into the Northeast.

[Al_Czervik]

12 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

Maybe July & August for the Northern Plains, Canada, the Midwest, Great Lakes, & into the Northeast.

Dry and Hot in the west with ridge in place keeps itself in a positive feedback loop, I would expect a pretty consistent northwest flow into the upper Midwest / Great Lakes that really won't let the heat get established, thus making it just general rain showers vs actual severe weather.  The only difference is this year it seems that the Pacific Northwest if getting rain and cooler weather at times.

[Ingyball]

5 hours ago, Al_Czervik said:

Dry and Hot in the west with ridge in place keeps itself in a positive feedback loop, I would expect a pretty consistent northwest flow into the upper Midwest / Great Lakes that really won't let the heat get established, thus making it just general rain showers vs actual severe weather.  The only difference is this year it seems that the Pacific Northwest if getting rain and cooler weather at times.

I'd love to get some northwest flow going here in the Plains but I have a nasty feeling we're going to see that ridge park itself further east over the Plains a la 2011 instead of further west like last Summer. That would put parts of the Midwest and OV in prime MCS position. 

[StormfanaticInd]

1 hour ago, Ingyball said:

I'd love to get some northwest flow going here in the Plains but I have a nasty feeling we're going to see that ridge park itself further east over the Plains a la 2011 instead of further west like last Summer. That would put parts of the Midwest and OV in prime MCS position. 

I agree somewhat. I think this has the potential to be a very hot summer after the very active late spring 

 

[Snowgeek93]

While the lousy spring continues around here I'm hopeful for summer.

Hot and dry summer for the great lakes please. Ideally something like a 2011, 2012, 2016, or 2020 scenario. 

Edited April 17, 2022 by Snowgeek93

[Al_Czervik]

3 hours ago, Ingyball said:

I'd love to get some northwest flow going here in the Plains but I have a nasty feeling we're going to see that ridge park itself further east over the Plains a la 2011 instead of further west like last Summer. That would put parts of the Midwest and OV in prime MCS position. 

What makes you think it will park itself further east?  

[MotownWX]

3 hours ago, Al_Czervik said:

What makes you think it will park itself further east?  

Looks like we may get a couple nice, warm days on the horizon.  And finally over a weekend too.  

But it'll be another "blink and you'll miss it" thing.  Looong stretch of below normal temps follows it again.  

[ClicheVortex2014]

I don't like this

 

[Ingyball]

7 hours ago, Al_Czervik said:

What makes you think it will park itself further east?  

The drought over the Plains can create a bit of a feedback loop, would not surprise me if we saw the death ridge rear it's ugly head this summer. That doesn't mean it won't spend some time further west, but I do think we see it sit further east more this summer than last (The Plains got some beneficial rain early spring that helped). It won't necessarily be 2011 bad, but it doesn't have to be.

[Al_Czervik]

7 hours ago, MotownWX said:

Looks like we may get a couple nice, warm days on the horizon.  And finally over a weekend too.  

But it'll be another "blink and you'll miss it" thing.  Looong stretch of below normal temps follows it again.  

We have not had a good year weather wise.  Even the nice warm days coming have turned cloudy.  At this rate it will be June before we have a week just in the 60's consistently.

 

 

2 hours ago, Ingyball said:

The drought over the Plains can create a bit of a feedback loop, would not surprise me if we saw the death ridge rear it's ugly head this summer. That doesn't mean it won't spend some time further west, but I do think we see it sit further east more this summer than last (The Plains got some beneficial rain early spring that helped). It won't necessarily be 2011 bad, but it doesn't have to be.

This makes me think it will definitely be centered over the western half of the country.  In terms of storms, without heat and humidity, your chances should be much lower which I think is the case because the SER is just not there.

Edited April 18, 2022 by Al_Czervik

[Ingyball]

9 hours ago, Al_Czervik said:

We have not had a good year weather wise.  Even the nice warm days coming have turned cloudy.  At this rate it will be June before we have a week just in the 60's consistently.

 

 

This makes me think it will definitely be centered over the western half of the country.  In terms of storms, without heat and humidity, your chances should be much lower which I think is the case because the SER is just not there.

This is just for the 8-14 day period, I've been talking about the overall Summer pattern. 

[1816]

17 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

I don't like this

 

[MotownWX]

Ah, there we go.  Once we get past a brief 2-day warmup this weekend, it's "back to normal".  😄

 

 

 

Edited April 18, 2022 by MotownWX

[NWOhioChaser]

Kinda switched a bit here. Past 6 or so weeks it's been above average temps midweek turning colder for the weekends. And the discrepancies have been a good 15-25 degrees difference too. 

[Cary67]

15 hours ago, MotownWX said:

Ah, there we go.  Once we get past a brief 2-day warmup this weekend, it's "back to normal".  😄

 

 

 

Thoughts from LOT meteorologist backing these maps.