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May 7-28, 2022 | Severe Weather/MCS Sequence


ElectricStorm

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  • Meteorologist

Rear inflow jet is now so strong that it's causing range folding, and now there's a tornado warning for a part of the derecho, possibly signifying the beginning of an even worse stage. Awful

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Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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  • Meteorologist

More discrete convection is quickly becoming severe warned in SD. In a favorable environment to become tornadic... increasingly so since the peak of the LLJ will come in the next few hours.

 

051222-5.PNG

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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Just now, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Best of luck to you... hope you escape the worst of it. Nothing you really can do except treat the derecho as a big ass tornado warning and take shelter

I’m up 20 miles south of Aberdeen.  Hoping to miss the major wind.  Just need to dodge tornados.

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Just now, cer5059 said:

Did I just see a power flash on the Great Bear Tubing Hill cam?

Yep.  Lot of flashes on their live news until it went off air.

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20 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

It's only a 10% hatched risk for tornadoes, so technically a high-end enhanced risk. 

I had that thought earlier... there's a significant risk for tornadoes, but there's an even greater risk for high-end damaging winds. Which do you emphasize? A tornado watch doesn't emphasize the risk for this kind of damaging winds, and a PDS severe watch doesn't emphasize the risk for potentially strong tornadoes. I guess SPC/NWS felt the risk for high-end damaging winds was greater with the PDS watch area than the tornado watch area.

Makes sense and i was thinking maybe that but just looks kinda weird.

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  • Meteorologist

biggggggg yikes

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 Mesoscale Discussion 0742
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0523 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

   Areas affected...Central and Eastern South Dakota

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 209...

   Valid 122223Z - 130030Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 209 continues.

   SUMMARY...The tornado threat is expected to quickly develop across
   parts of northeastern South Dakota over the next hour. The threat
   will spread northward with time and increase, especially in the
   northern and eastern parts of WW 209.

   DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Aberdeen, South Dakota
   shows a severe line segment producing widespread wind damage located
   across southeastern South Dakota. More discrete cells are developing
   on the northwestern edge of the line about 50 miles from south to
   southwest of Aberdeen.  The storms are ongoing in an extremely
   unstable environment with MLCAPE in the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range. In
   addition, the Aberdeen WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 50 knots
   with 0-3 km storm relative helicity around 400 m2/s2. This along
   with a looping hodograph will be favorable for supercells and
   tornadoes over the next one to two hours. The tornado threat will
   likely increase due to a strengthening low-level jet as the storms
   move across northeastern South Dakota. A strong tornado will be
   possible with any supercell that can become dominant.

   The storms will move into southeastern North Dakota and into parts
   of western Minnesota over the next hour, where a new weather watch
   will be issued shortly.

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  • The title was changed to May 7-?, 2022 | Severe Weather/MCS Sequence
1 minute ago, Neoncyclone said:

I've been through derechos, too many MCS's to count, i've never seen cloud motion so fast other than the condensation of a tornado. Watertown cam is insane

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Yeah I've been watching it. Crazy cloud motion for sure 

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Quote
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
557 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

SDC029-037-051-057-122315-
/O.CON.KABR.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-220512T2315Z/
Day SD-Hamlin SD-Grant SD-Codington SD-
557 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN DAY...NORTHEASTERN HAMLIN...WEST CENTRAL GRANT AND
CODINGTON COUNTIES...

At 556 PM CDT, tornado producing storms were located along a line
extending from Memorial Park Camping Site to near Watertown, moving
north at 80 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. At 552 PM CDT, damage
         was reported in Castlewood.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

These tornadic storms will be near...
  Rauville and Medicine Lake around 600 PM CDT.
  Florence, Dakota Sioux Casino and Grass Lake around 605 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these tornadic storms include Bitter
Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

This line of thunderstorms is capable of producing tornadoes and
widespread significant wind damage. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest
floor of a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4525 9743 4525 9698 4467 9700 4479 9735
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 179DEG 71KT 4492 9726 4487 9710

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

 

 

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