Neoncyclone Posted May 12, 2022 Share Posted May 12, 2022 Derecho Composite shows just how favorable a monster-MCS really is tonight. These are pretty extreme values, not saying this storm system will become a derecho, as specific parameters must be met, but it is easily going to be possible with this environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 12, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 12, 2022 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: Derecho Composite shows just how favorable a monster-MCS really is tonight. These are pretty extreme values, not saying this storm system will become a derecho, as specific parameters must be met, but it is easily going to be possible with this environment. Yeah I haven't seen maxed out derecho composite in a while. Granted, due to the parameters used in the composite, it often gets maxed out during tornado outbreaks... but this is clearly a derecho day, imo. Talking about 4000+ sbcape/30-60 knots effective shear with a negative tilt and an already developed MCS... can't get much more obvious than that. Edited May 12, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 12, 2022 Author Share Posted May 12, 2022 WHOA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 12, 2022 Share Posted May 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said: WHOA Well there you go, now we know exactly what the spc expects too, a powerful derecho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 12, 2022 Author Share Posted May 12, 2022 Yeah 95/95 wind probs that'll do it my goodness. 60 hatched worthy IMO but they probably won't do it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 12, 2022 Author Share Posted May 12, 2022 Already seeing some 80mph warnings popping up. Yeah this is gonna be a long day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 12, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 12, 2022 PDS tstorm watches only happen a couple times per year at most so yeah this is pretty serious. SPC/NWS will be in a tough spot trying to decide what to do with NE SD. Go with a tornado watch or a PDS tstorm watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 12, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 12, 2022 (edited) FWIW, got a supercell in SE SD that's moving north into more favorable moisture and greater vorticity (warm front) Edited May 12, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 12, 2022 Author Share Posted May 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: PDS tstorm watches only happen a couple times per year at most so yeah this is pretty serious. SPC/NWS will be in a tough spot trying to decide what to do with NE SD. Go with a tornado watch or a PDS tstorm watch. Tornado watch it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 12, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 12, 2022 Just now, OKwx_2001 said: Tornado watch it is Gusts up to 90 mph... oof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 12, 2022 Share Posted May 12, 2022 Just now, ClicheVortex2014 said: Gusts up to 90 mph... oof Those are some solid probabilities all the way around wow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 12, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 12, 2022 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: Those are some solid probabilities all the way around wow. I expected higher but that it a somewhat small watch. Also not sure if they take population into consideration with those probabilities. I doubt it. Edited May 12, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 12, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 12, 2022 Ah yes... nickels being thrown at you at 90 mph. Classic CDT Thu May 12 2022 NEC027-107-119-139-179-122130- /O.CON.KOAX.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-220512T2130Z/ Madison NE-Wayne NE-Pierce NE-Knox NE-Cedar NE- 355 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN MADISON...WESTERN WAYNE...PIERCE...SOUTHEASTERN KNOX AND SOUTHWESTERN CEDAR COUNTIES... At 354 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 2 miles southeast of Creighton to near Norfolk, moving east at 70 mph. THESE ARE DESTRUCTIVE STORMS FOR THE WARNED AREA. HAZARD...90 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Homes and businesses will have substantial roof and window damage. Expect extensive tree damage and power outages. These severe storms will be near... Hadar and Hoskins around 400 PM CDT. Other locations in the path of these severe thunderstorms include Osmond, Wausa, Randolph and Belden. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. These storms have the potential to cause serious injury and significant property damage. && LAT...LON 4251 9775 4250 9716 4209 9731 4209 9736 4208 9737 4209 9784 TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 266DEG 63KT 4245 9787 4203 9744 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...90 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 12, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 12, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted May 12, 2022 Share Posted May 12, 2022 Wow those are some serious wind gusts. How common is 80+ in this area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 12, 2022 Share Posted May 12, 2022 Things really ramping up along the warm sector, been a little while since i've seen purple STP contours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 12, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 12, 2022 (edited) Woooooooow look at the rear inflow jet. Upper 80s/lower 90 mph. Northeastern most facing warning indicates that part of the MCS is moving at 80 mph Edited May 12, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 12, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 12, 2022 (edited) Any velocity pixel with even a slight purple hue is >100 mph at 4000-5500 feet. That's a lot of pixels Edited May 12, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 12, 2022 Share Posted May 12, 2022 (edited) Boy I hope the HRRR is wrong, that sure does look like a discrete supercell moving into the most explosive section of the warm sector.. Here it is on radar. Hopefully it runs into some problems but not a good look. Edited May 12, 2022 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 12, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: Boy I hope the HRRR is wrong, that sure does look like a discrete supercell moving into the most explosive section of the warm sector.. Looks like we have a discrete cell already. Best viewed from Lincoln, NE radar but given how fast everything's moving, won't be long til Aberdeen takes over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 12, 2022 Share Posted May 12, 2022 I swear the violent tornado parameter was made by weather weenies there's no other explanation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 12, 2022 Share Posted May 12, 2022 Wow boundary interaction so close to the radar that is very cool to see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 12, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 12, 2022 Wind gusts approaching 100 mph possible Mesoscale Discussion 0739 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 Areas affected...Southeast South Dakota...far southwest Minnesota...and northwest Iowa Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 208... Valid 122132Z - 122230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 208 continues. SUMMARY...A very intense squall line will bring likely hurricane force winds across portions of southeast South Dakota into southwest Minnesota this evening. DISCUSSION...A well developed squall line has developed across Nebraska and has already produced multiple wind gusts in the 70 to 90 mph range over the past 1 to 2 hours. This line is moving over 60 knots and is moving into an increasingly favorable environment for severe wind gusts with MLCAPE of 3000 to 4000 J/kg, DCAPE of 1400 J/kg, and effective shear around 50 knots. All signs point toward a swath of high end wind damage across southeast South Dakota and possibly into southwest Montana. Widespread velocities of 90 to 100 knots are being sampled around 4000 feet across Yankton and Bon Homme counties as of 4:30 PM. This is the same region where several consecutive runs of the WoFS have shown a swath with ensemble maximum surface winds of 90 to 100 knots. Therefore, widespread 75+ mph winds are likely with some wind gusts approaching 100 mph possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 12, 2022 Share Posted May 12, 2022 So just got home and saw the PDS thunderstorm watch which I get with up to 105mph winds possible but if there’s also a moderate probs of tornadoes why not just a tornado watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 12, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted May 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: So just got home and saw the PDS thunderstorm watch which I get with up to 105mph winds possible but if there’s also a moderate probs of tornadoes why not just a tornado watch? It's only a 10% hatched risk for tornadoes, so technically a high-end enhanced risk. I had that thought earlier... there's a significant risk for tornadoes, but there's an even greater risk for high-end damaging winds. Which do you emphasize? A tornado watch doesn't emphasize the risk for this kind of damaging winds, and a PDS severe watch doesn't emphasize the risk for potentially strong tornadoes. I guess SPC/NWS felt the risk for high-end damaging winds was greater with the PDS watch area than the tornado watch area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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